ALL w/ ALL ??

[Thunder Gulch]

Some of the guys in my group have been doing this for years and have made out very well. If you go back to the beginning of the 20 seperate entries, you would have a huge roi. It also works for the Belmont over the last 10 + years with all of the triple crown failures, horses such as Lemon Drop Kid, Commendable, Sarava, and Datara, and a smaller investment...don't get cute to save a few bucks. If I had done a 15x15 box, I would have missed some of the biggest scores.

[philcski]

I've decided I'd buy the tri if I could afford to (I can't.) I think the expected value is over $3,420 for .$50 based on how evenly matched the field is.

[booner]

So let me ask this.....with Lookin' At Lucky and Sidney's Candy getting unfavorable post positions, does it add more value to this wager?

[2MinsToPost]

Why not pick 5 legit horses, tossing the favorite, and box them in an exacta? For a dollar its twenty, and bump it up a couple notches. An example of what could have been is very evident in the 2005 edition as I used Giacomo in my five horse box.

Then, spread your cash in some other "hedge" bets.

You could spend a lot less and make a lot more or lose a lot less no matter the outcome.

Not a fan of the all button ever, take a stand.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

What about using only 3 in the Oaks... And really crushing it.

then the 2 longest shots on the board would win, its just my luck

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

For longshots, it's easier to run third than it is to run second, and easier to run second that it is to run third.

What?

[DaTruth]

You can always play an Oaks-Derby Double using just the ones who ran in the Silverbulletday.

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

One of my favorite ways to play the races is to key horses in third, and then sometimes in second. For longshots, it's easier to run third than it is to run second, and easier to run second that it is to run third. Often times, those underneath horses are closers who figure to pass tired pace horses. Denis of Cork is one example but unfortunately, I tired to get too cute and beat Big Brown.

This is my favorite angle twice a year, Derby and Breeders Cup. Especially The Derby because of field size and all the possible traffic problems that can occur. I remember someone in 2005 on the old espn board talking / posting about a "plodder", one that would keep coming. He was right. Ever since then I have tried to find that.

Of all the races to look for that live shot, good grief this is the one given the possible payoff at the window. Plod your way to second, plod your way to third. Neither one Travis is easier then the other the first Saturday in May in this race in my humble opinion, and man this race sure looks more and more like a "plodders" type race.

[cloud_break]

[quote=wapete;640940]Interesting cover all play... I looked at the number quickly and the average exacta from last 10 years is $1547. Once you throw out the $9800 2005 result the average payout is $628 or roughly 82% of your $2 exacta box to cover 20x19 ($760). Historically you can expect to lose ~ 18% on the bet which is about inline with exotic takeouts.

I guess the strategy is you're hoping for a 50-1 to hit the top 2. If so, you might as well just take the 4 horses that are ML 50-1+ and box each one individually with All others. Each key bx would be $76 so in total you would be out $304. This play would of hit the exacta in both 2005 and 2009. You should expect to either lose all $300 or win $2k+.



Very good idea for fence swinging. Better to save on the front end than cash a "loser" if its LAL and Icebox

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

$84 total

never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box
Jackson Bend
Sidney's Candy
Conveyance
Line of David

finished itm in slop exacta box
Mission Impazible
Super Saver
Devil May Care
Backtalk

top beyer exacta box
Sidney's Candy 100
Devil May Care 100
Jackson Bend 100
Conveyance 99
Ice Box 99

itm at churchill exacta box
Backtalk
Super Saver
Mission Impazible

never lost on dirt exacta box
Lookin At Lucky
Line of David
American Lion

never ran on dirt exacta box
Make Music for Me
Sidney's Candy

never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box
Paddy O'Prado
Dean's Kitten
Stately Victor

horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box
Noble's Promise
Dublin
Discreetly Mine
Awesome Act
Homeboykris

My days of betting like this are over. Take a stand and make your picks. Missing a huge exacta (or tri or super) because of a January MSW sucks.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

i think this is a good bet this year...im throwing around the idea...i will toss stately victor to save $20 bucks....think he has 0% chance on hitting the board

What odds you give me to show?
Ya know, since he has no shot.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

My days of betting like this are over. Take a stand and make your picks. Missing a huge exacta (or tri or super) because of a January MSW sucks.

This is my stand. The way I figure it once the first horse crosses the line I have roughly a 15% chance that the second horse will be in one of the categories listed. GOOD LUCK !

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

What?

I meant to write... it's easier to run third than it is to run second, and it's easier to run second than it is to win.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

This is my favorite angle twice a year, Derby and Breeders Cup. Especially The Derby because of field size and all the possible traffic problems that can occur. I remember someone in 2005 on the old espn board talking / posting about a "plodder", one that would keep coming. He was right. Ever since then I have tried to find that.

Of all the races to look for that live shot, good grief this is the one given the possible payoff at the window. Plod your way to second, plod your way to third. Neither one Travis is easier then the other the first Saturday in May in this race in my humble opinion, and man this race sure looks more and more like a "plodders" type race.

I love these types of plays everyday I play, however, for Derby and BC they're especially fun because of the large pools involved.

Most bettors build their tickets from the top down... find a winner, find four horses in second and find ten horses in third etc..... but if you go about it the opposite way, and just find the horse who figures to make up ground late regardless, you don't necessarily have to nail the winner, just have him in the group on top.

1-2-3-4 / 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 / 10 = $32 Trifecta

Then, you can back it up with a $2 exacta and a $5 win bet on the 10 just in case he runs huge. So for $45 or so, you have a decent ticket, and one which can pay really well if the right combo comes in.