136th Kentucky Derby (PP's)

[slotdirt]

I dug a little deeper into Make Music for Me, and I'm sorry, but I don't understand. And it's weird because the poster who is mentioning this horse is one of the more astute handicappers we have around here. The horse has worked precisely once since Blue Grass day, has won precisely one race in his entire career - a listed turf stakes, and has never even sniffed beating a good horse in his life. If we're just taking stabs to take stabs because the field is more than lackluster, I understand that, but I'd love to hear someone explain how Make Music for Me warrants any consideration for Saturday. Mike Welsh on his 4/25 workout:

Make Music For Me (five furlongs in 1:02.40): There was not much to like about this move for the horse who now is first on the earnings bubble. He completed his final quarter in a lackluster 25.73 and like Dublin didn't gallop out very well, pulling up six furlongs in 1:17.79.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I dug a little deeper into Make Music for Me, and I'm sorry, but I don't understand. And it's weird because the poster who is mentioning this horse is one of the more astute handicappers we have around here. The horse has worked precisely once since Blue Grass day, has won precisely one race in his entire career - a listed turf stakes, and has never even sniffed beating a good horse in his life. If we're just taking stabs to take stabs because the field is more than lackluster, I understand that, but I'd love to hear someone explain how Make Music for Me warrants any consideration for Saturday. Mike Welsh on his 4/25 workout:

Make Music For Me (five furlongs in 1:02.40): There was not much to like about this move for the horse who now is first on the earnings bubble. He completed his final quarter in a lackluster 25.73 and like Dublin didn't gallop out very well, pulling up six furlongs in 1:17.79.

I would suggest going back to watch some of Make Music for Me's races before rushing to judgement. Now I am not suggesting that he is the most likely winner of this race. But, I do think he has a real shot to win and will be among the longest prices on the board which to me makes him worth a look.

Make Music for Me has three times faced Looking at Lucky in his career. he finished 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in those three attempts. All three losses were by a length and a quarter or less. Since Looking at Lucky will be one tenth of his price, and the race favorite, the fact that they have run so competitevely is encouraging. He has also run well against Noble's Promise as well.

Because he had serious earnings as a two year old, his trainer took it very easy on him this year so he would peak on saturday. This will be his third start of the year off the layoff.

I understand the knocks. His breeding certainly screams turf. He is not excatly a win machine. But you won't get 50-1 shots with no knocks.

However, if you dig deeper, he is coming in fresh, this is his third race off the layoff, the distance should not be an issue, he has the right running style for this race, and he will offer tremendous value.

I will be betting him. I may be way off base but in a race that has no clear standout, I want a horse that will offer value where if I am right, I will be seriously rewarded. At 50-1, he is a value.

Paul

[slotdirt]

Well, either he's fresh or he's about to fall apart. Not exactly a workout tab that engenders confidence. I think 50-1 is probably on the low end of where he'll actually be come post time.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Well, either he's fresh or he's about to fall apart. Not exactly a workout tab that engenders confidence. I think 50-1 is probably on the low end of where he'll actually be come post time.

He raced three weeks ago. He has worked twice since then. One was a bullet on April 19 at Keeneland. The other was a more even effort. I didn't see either work but wouldn't be concerned.

I hope no one else in America bets him but me. The higher the price the better.

Paul

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by pweizer

He raced three weeks ago. He has worked twice since then. One was a bullet on April 19 at Keeneland. The other was a more even effort. I didn't see either work but wouldn't be concerned.

I hope no one else in America bets him but me. The higher the price the better.

Paul

I'm going to cover him...probably w/a $20 win bet...just in case. Sorry.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I'm going to cover him...probably w/a $20 win bet...just in case. Sorry.

No worries. Just don't blame me if he runs up the track...

Paul

[slotdirt]

I'm not sure you'll be the only person betting the horse, but I think it's fair to say he'll be competing with Homeboykris for highest odds on the tote board. I hope you're a rich man come Saturday at 7:00 Eastern.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I would suggest going back to watch some of Make Music for Me's races before rushing to judgement.

He's run ONE 'standout' race: the Pasadena on the TURF.

Noble's Promise has dusted him each time they've met.

Good luck to all those looking to bet him.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He's run ONE 'standout' race: the Pasadena on the TURF.

Noble's Promise has dusted him each time they've met.

Good luck to all those looking to bet him.

I take it you like NP in the Derby?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

I take it you like NP in the Derby?

I'm boxing him with SC.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm boxing him with SC.

I'm concerned about the distance for NP, but there's no question he's a hard trier who has already outrun his pedigree, and if you can look past the pedigree he's 4x the price of L@L for virtually the same past performances.

Personally I won't be using him much because I don't think he can get a mile and a quarter but I can't argue with anyone who says he can and 12-1 is a fair price to find out at.

[slotdirt]

Sen. McConnell picked Super Saver today. Look out.

[tbonds]

Paddy O'Prado could love the slop as well.
giving a muddy and not real sloppy track. Could be
used in deep exotics.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I would suggest going back to watch some of Make Music for Me's races before rushing to judgement. Now I am not suggesting that he is the most likely winner of this race. But, I do think he has a real shot to win and will be among the longest prices on the board which to me makes him worth a look.

Make Music for Me has three times faced Looking at Lucky in his career. he finished 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in those three attempts. All three losses were by a length and a quarter or less. Since Looking at Lucky will be one tenth of his price, and the race favorite, the fact that they have run so competitevely is encouraging. He has also run well against Noble's Promise as well.

Because he had serious earnings as a two year old, his trainer took it very easy on him this year so he would peak on saturday. This will be his third start of the year off the layoff.

I understand the knocks. His breeding certainly screams turf. He is not excatly a win machine. But you won't get 50-1 shots with no knocks.

However, if you dig deeper, he is coming in fresh, this is his third race off the layoff, the distance should not be an issue, he has the right running style for this race, and he will offer tremendous value.

I will be betting him. I may be way off base but in a race that has no clear standout, I want a horse that will offer value where if I am right, I will be seriously rewarded. At 50-1, he is a value.

Paul

Great job Paul. I appreciate the insight.

[tbonds]

Looking for some help guy.
On the future bet,(pool two) Do you get the odds the horse goes off at or
What your future odds were. I have 11 horses in Derby? (the field)

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by tbonds

Looking for some help guy.
On the future bet,(pool two) Do you get the odds the horse goes off at or
What your future odds were. I have 11 horses in Derby? (the field)

3-1

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...s/futures.html

[2MinsToPost]

I am using Super Saver in all spots, and it pains me because I am not a fan of Smiley Borel.

3rd off the layoff, TAP trained, familiar with Churchill and better Beyer figs each time out.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

I am using Super Saver in all spots, and it pains me because I am not a fan of Smiley Borel.

3rd off the layoff, TAP trained, familiar with Churchill and better Beyer figs each time out.

Very nice horse, and I like that he was able to rate (sort of) in the AR Derby. He also should move up on a wet track. I have a sneaking suspicion he doesn't want 10 furlongs though.