136th Kentucky Derby (PP's)

[CSC]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You heard it here first. 17 out of 20 horses are good bets because of "Mine The Bird."

Or perhaps because there is no standout superior horse, if there is I haven't seen it yet.

[GPK]

I have watched exactly zero prep races this year, so admittedly I have no clue, nor opinion on this years Derby. That being said, Talamo has never met a front end he didn't like, so it will be interesting to see what he does from the far outside.

Personally, I will be rooting for Ice Box. I like Zito and obviously would love to see Lezcano get a Derby win.

[pweizer]

I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul

I would agree if the pedigree didn't scream Green to me.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul

agree...and could totally see Rosario bringing home a bomb. Still kicking myself for not covering him in the BC Sprint.

[slotdirt]

If the Derby were run on turf, Make Music for Me would still probably be like 10th choice in this field.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

If the Derby were run on turf, Make Music for Me would still probably be like 10th choice in this field.

10th choice sounds good to me. The idea is to make money after all so I hope his odds are very high.

Paul

[slotdirt]

Good luck with him. I'd imagine an over/under of about 13th would be about fair for the horse.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul

I thought about this post the whole race. Nice handicapping. That horse ran really nice.

[Bigsmc]

Sorry PETA, looks like Devil May Care made it back to the barn okay.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Sorry PETA, looks like Devil May Care made it back to the barn okay.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Sorry PETA, looks like Devil May Care made it back to the barn okay.

[pointman]

Icebox ran huge and most likely wins if he doesn't have stop and restart, tough break for his connections.

[nomad]

I agree about Icebox. He proved his Fla derby was no fluke
He was my second choice. Indeed he ran second.
Sidney was my top choice. A disappointmnet & I don't think Talamo did anything wrong.
[i]t was a good derby and Borel was brilliant
Good Derby, I enjoyed it. I wish I would have won! Onward & upward to the Preakness. I'll root for Supersaver.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CSC

Or perhaps because there is no standout superior horse, if there is I haven't seen it yet.

Just confirming that we'll get to hear you crow about how right you were if one of 17 horses wins. Because you're totally the first to say that there are no standouts in the field.

[tector]

Somebody has to win the frigging race. I can't bust the chops of someone taking a price, except for the fact that all the true longshots go off at underlaid odds. In this race there is always some horse that should be 150-1 that goes off at 60-1 instead. Derby betting is unique unto its own, with names and numbers get bet by once-a-year betters.

[Sightseek]

The rest of the card is up, Churchill Down S. looks really interesting:

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry...10USA-EQB.html

[slotdirt]

I dug a little deeper into Make Music for Me, and I'm sorry, but I don't understand. And it's weird because the poster who is mentioning this horse is one of the more astute handicappers we have around here. The horse has worked precisely once since Blue Grass day, has won precisely one race in his entire career - a listed turf stakes, and has never even sniffed beating a good horse in his life. If we're just taking stabs to take stabs because the field is more than lackluster, I understand that, but I'd love to hear someone explain how Make Music for Me warrants any consideration for Saturday. Mike Welsh on his 4/25 workout:

Make Music For Me (five furlongs in 1:02.40): There was not much to like about this move for the horse who now is first on the earnings bubble. He completed his final quarter in a lackluster 25.73 and like Dublin didn't gallop out very well, pulling up six furlongs in 1:17.79.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I dug a little deeper into Make Music for Me, and I'm sorry, but I don't understand. And it's weird because the poster who is mentioning this horse is one of the more astute handicappers we have around here. The horse has worked precisely once since Blue Grass day, has won precisely one race in his entire career - a listed turf stakes, and has never even sniffed beating a good horse in his life. If we're just taking stabs to take stabs because the field is more than lackluster, I understand that, but I'd love to hear someone explain how Make Music for Me warrants any consideration for Saturday. Mike Welsh on his 4/25 workout:

Make Music For Me (five furlongs in 1:02.40): There was not much to like about this move for the horse who now is first on the earnings bubble. He completed his final quarter in a lackluster 25.73 and like Dublin didn't gallop out very well, pulling up six furlongs in 1:17.79.

I would suggest going back to watch some of Make Music for Me's races before rushing to judgement. Now I am not suggesting that he is the most likely winner of this race. But, I do think he has a real shot to win and will be among the longest prices on the board which to me makes him worth a look.

Make Music for Me has three times faced Looking at Lucky in his career. he finished 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in those three attempts. All three losses were by a length and a quarter or less. Since Looking at Lucky will be one tenth of his price, and the race favorite, the fact that they have run so competitevely is encouraging. He has also run well against Noble's Promise as well.

Because he had serious earnings as a two year old, his trainer took it very easy on him this year so he would peak on saturday. This will be his third start of the year off the layoff.

I understand the knocks. His breeding certainly screams turf. He is not excatly a win machine. But you won't get 50-1 shots with no knocks.

However, if you dig deeper, he is coming in fresh, this is his third race off the layoff, the distance should not be an issue, he has the right running style for this race, and he will offer tremendous value.

I will be betting him. I may be way off base but in a race that has no clear standout, I want a horse that will offer value where if I am right, I will be seriously rewarded. At 50-1, he is a value.

Paul

[slotdirt]

Well, either he's fresh or he's about to fall apart. Not exactly a workout tab that engenders confidence. I think 50-1 is probably on the low end of where he'll actually be come post time.