6/8 (BEL): 151st Belmont Stakes Day ~ 8 G1's

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You're totally contradicting yourself. An inside bias will automatically create a speed bias. Any horse that gets a clear lead will be on the rail. A horse with a clear lead is not going to be out in the 4 path. So the horse on the lead is going to have the rail. Many of the come-from-behinders are going to be rallying wide. So an inside bias is going to favor speed horses. That is automatic. You can't have an inside bias that doesn't favor speed.

There is so much wrong about this it's hard to know where to start. Let's see, there are plenty of situations where speed horses do NOT go the rail. When the rail is good, most do, but anyone that bet Rockin Jo back at Aqueduct on a gold rail day wishes his rider had gone to the rail with him as opposed to staying two or three wide and allowing another up the inside. But I digress. Many closers do go wide, but some ( I assume you remember Sir Winston? ) spend a significant portion of the race on the rail, so they haven't expended an unnecessary amount of energy on the deeper part of the track, and are still about to close outside during the small part of the race they are outside. Think Good Samaritan in the Jim Dandy two years ago as well ( also a deep closer ridden by Joel Rosario on a gold rail track ).


Here's what you're missing, many people ( apparently yourself included ) mistake gold rail tracks for speed tracks because, as you said ( when you got oh so close to getting it, only to let your vanity get in the way ) most speed horses go inside. I hope this helps.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There is so much wrong about this it's hard to know where to start. Let's see, there are plenty of situations where speed horses do NOT go the rail. When the rail is good, most do, but anyone that bet Rockin Jo back at Aqueduct on a gold rail day wishes his rider had gone to the rail with him as opposed to staying two or three wide and allowing another up the inside. But I digress. Many closers do go wide, but some ( I assume you remember Sir Winston? ) spend a significant portion of the race on the rail, so they haven't expended an unnecessary amount of energy on the deeper part of the track, and are still about to close outside during the small part of the race they are outside. Think Good Samaritan in the Jim Dandy two years ago as well ( also a deep closer ridden by Joel Rosario on a gold rail track ).


Here's what you're missing, many people ( apparently yourself included ) mistake gold rail tracks for speed tracks because, as you said ( when you got oh so close to getting it, only to let your vanity get in the way ) most speed horses go inside. I hope this helps.

The vast majority of speed horses go to the rail. That is all that matters. I'm not claiming 100% of them do. It doesn't have to be 100%. None of these things are 100%. Most speed horses (who get clear) will stay relatively close to the rail. Even if only 80% of them do this, that would be high enough to create a significant correlation between a rail bias and a speed bias. You obviously understand correlations.

Coming up with individual cases doesn't prove anything. Sure there will be horses who save ground around the turn and swing out at the top of the lane. But most come-from-behinders will not get that trip. And even the ones that do will still be on a worse part of the track coming down the stretch. So they will still have a small disadvantage.

If there is a rail bias, overall that will help speed horses. It doesn't mean all speed horses will be helped. It won't help outside speed that can't get a clear lead and is 4 wide all the way around the track. But it means that every horse that goes to the lead (and races relatively close to the rail, like most horses with a clear lead run), will have a better chance that day than they would have on a day with no rail bias.