6/8 (BEL): 151st Belmont Stakes Day ~ 8 G1's

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Everyone wants a fair surface. If you think the superintendent, who is considered by many to be outstanding, wants a bias surface you couldn't be more wrong. There is no way in the world he wakes up and says to himself, let's make a golden rail today.

I don't think he wants there to be a speed bias. I think he was told to make the track really fast. On these really big days, for whatever reason, they like the track to be really fast. The result is usually a speed bias.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't think he wants there to be a speed bias. I think he was told to make the track really fast. On these really big days, for whatever reason, they like the track to be really fast. The result is usually a speed bias.

Safe surface priority one

Working with horseman to find a surface a majority want priority two

Taking a call from "they" to speed the track up is a fantasy ESPECIALLY this day and age of hypersensitivity to track conditions and horse fatalities.

BTW who do you think made the call Yo Glenn scrape the surface we want fast times for TV?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Safe surface priority one

Working with horseman to find a surface a majority want priority two

Taking a call from "they" to speed the track up is a fantasy ESPECIALLY this day and age of hypersensitivity to track conditions and horse fatalities.

BTW who do you think made the call Yo Glenn scrape the surface we want fast times for TV?

Somebody obviously made the call. Do you think it's just a coincidence that the track is lightening fast on days like this? I highly doubt the trackman just decides to take it upon himself to speed up the track on these big days.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Somebody obviously made the call. Do you think it's just a coincidence that the track is lightening fast on days like this? I highly doubt the trackman just decides to take it upon himself to speed up the track on these big days.

Somebody made the call? Did KYRIM steal your login? Please stop. You're embarrassing yourself. You don't even know the difference between a rail bias and a speed bias.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Somebody made the call? Did KYRIM steal your login? Please stop. You're embarrassing yourself. You don't even know the difference between a rail bias and a speed bias.

Yeah, you are right. It's just a coincidence that the track always seems to be lightening fast on these big days. I guess it just gets that way on its own.

I think there was totally a speed bias both Friday and Saturday. There may have been a rail bias too. I don't focus on rail biases or outside biases because they are too hard to determine conclusively. It's not too hard to figure out if there's a speed bias. Rail biases are harder to determine conclusively, at least for me.

[blackthroatedwind]

The King of Comedy is such a good movie. It really does not deserve this.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The King of Comedy is such a good movie. It really does not deserve this.

Watchmaker thought there was a speed bias too. You better give him a call and tell him that he doesn't know what he's talking about. You still didn't explain how the track magically gets so lightening fast on big days. I've got to hear this.

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/48281-in...t-s-main-track

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't think he wants there to be a speed bias. I think he was told to make the track really fast. On these really big days, for whatever reason, they like the track to be really fast. The result is usually a speed bias.

But there wasn’t a speed bias. The rail was golden. That’s not the same as a speed bias. You could close yesterday. But the longer you were glued to the rail, the better you did.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

But there wasn’t a speed bias. The rail was golden. That’s not the same as a speed bias. You could close yesterday. But the longer you were glued to the rail, the better you did.

A speed bias doesn't mean you can't close. It just means it's much tougher to close. If there is a suicidal pace, someone will probably close. That doesn't mean there's not a speed bias.

I will take your word for it that there was a rail bias. It's not something I focus on.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

A speed bias doesn't mean you can't close. It just means it's much tougher to close. If there is a suicidal pace, someone will probably close. That doesn't mean there's not a speed bias.

I will take your word for it that there was a rail bias. It's not something I focus on.

You weren’t aware of the inside bias but want to educate me on what a speed bias is. Tremendous. Cherry on top is using Watchmaker as proof.

Don’t change ever.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You weren’t aware of the inside bias but want to educate me on what a speed bias is. Tremendous. Cherry on top is using Watchmaker as proof.

Don’t change ever.

You're totally contradicting yourself. An inside bias will automatically create a speed bias. Any horse that gets a clear lead will be on the rail. A horse with a clear lead is not going to be out in the 4 path. So the horse on the lead is going to have the rail. Many of the come-from-behinders are going to be rallying wide. So an inside bias is going to favor speed horses. That is automatic. You can't have an inside bias that doesn't favor speed.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You're totally contradicting yourself. An inside bias will automatically create a speed bias. Any horse that gets a clear lead will be on the rail. A horse with a clear lead is not going to be out in the 4 path. So the horse on the lead is going to have the rail. Many of the come-from-behinders are going to be rallying wide. So an inside bias is going to favor speed horses. That is automatic. You can't have an inside bias that doesn't favor speed.

Are you related to Dilanesp from PaceAdvantage? He’s the only other person I can think of that would rather cut their head off than admit they are wrong.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Are you related to Dilanesp from PaceAdvantage? He’s the only other person I can think of that would rather cut their head off than admit they are wrong.

If you know anyone who knows me (which you probably don't), you would know that it's just the opposite. I never have a problem admitting when I am wrong.

Anyway, back to the argument, I still think there was a speed bias (independent of any possible rail bias). At almost all of the big tracks, when they make the track really fast for a big stakes day, it creates a speed bias most of the time.

But hypothetically if there was a day where there was not going to be a speed bias but the track was going to be faster on the rail (a rail bias), that would create a speed bias. An inside bias will manifest itself as a speed bias every time. There is no way around it. There is no such thing as an inside bias that doesn't favor speed.

It's not that complicated.

In addition, if there is a speed bias (with no rail bias), it will make it appear like there is a rail bias, because there will be a ton of winners who were on the lead and in the 1 or 2 path turning into the stretch and coming down the stretch. A speed bias can easily be mistaken for a rail bias.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You're totally contradicting yourself. An inside bias will automatically create a speed bias. Any horse that gets a clear lead will be on the rail. A horse with a clear lead is not going to be out in the 4 path. So the horse on the lead is going to have the rail. Many of the come-from-behinders are going to be rallying wide. So an inside bias is going to favor speed horses. That is automatic. You can't have an inside bias that doesn't favor speed.

There is so much wrong about this it's hard to know where to start. Let's see, there are plenty of situations where speed horses do NOT go the rail. When the rail is good, most do, but anyone that bet Rockin Jo back at Aqueduct on a gold rail day wishes his rider had gone to the rail with him as opposed to staying two or three wide and allowing another up the inside. But I digress. Many closers do go wide, but some ( I assume you remember Sir Winston? ) spend a significant portion of the race on the rail, so they haven't expended an unnecessary amount of energy on the deeper part of the track, and are still about to close outside during the small part of the race they are outside. Think Good Samaritan in the Jim Dandy two years ago as well ( also a deep closer ridden by Joel Rosario on a gold rail track ).


Here's what you're missing, many people ( apparently yourself included ) mistake gold rail tracks for speed tracks because, as you said ( when you got oh so close to getting it, only to let your vanity get in the way ) most speed horses go inside. I hope this helps.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There is so much wrong about this it's hard to know where to start. Let's see, there are plenty of situations where speed horses do NOT go the rail. When the rail is good, most do, but anyone that bet Rockin Jo back at Aqueduct on a gold rail day wishes his rider had gone to the rail with him as opposed to staying two or three wide and allowing another up the inside. But I digress. Many closers do go wide, but some ( I assume you remember Sir Winston? ) spend a significant portion of the race on the rail, so they haven't expended an unnecessary amount of energy on the deeper part of the track, and are still about to close outside during the small part of the race they are outside. Think Good Samaritan in the Jim Dandy two years ago as well ( also a deep closer ridden by Joel Rosario on a gold rail track ).


Here's what you're missing, many people ( apparently yourself included ) mistake gold rail tracks for speed tracks because, as you said ( when you got oh so close to getting it, only to let your vanity get in the way ) most speed horses go inside. I hope this helps.

The vast majority of speed horses go to the rail. That is all that matters. I'm not claiming 100% of them do. It doesn't have to be 100%. None of these things are 100%. Most speed horses (who get clear) will stay relatively close to the rail. Even if only 80% of them do this, that would be high enough to create a significant correlation between a rail bias and a speed bias. You obviously understand correlations.

Coming up with individual cases doesn't prove anything. Sure there will be horses who save ground around the turn and swing out at the top of the lane. But most come-from-behinders will not get that trip. And even the ones that do will still be on a worse part of the track coming down the stretch. So they will still have a small disadvantage.

If there is a rail bias, overall that will help speed horses. It doesn't mean all speed horses will be helped. It won't help outside speed that can't get a clear lead and is 4 wide all the way around the track. But it means that every horse that goes to the lead (and races relatively close to the rail, like most horses with a clear lead run), will have a better chance that day than they would have on a day with no rail bias.