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#1
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#2
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Anyway, back to the argument, I still think there was a speed bias (independent of any possible rail bias). At almost all of the big tracks, when they make the track really fast for a big stakes day, it creates a speed bias most of the time. But hypothetically if there was a day where there was not going to be a speed bias but the track was going to be faster on the rail (a rail bias), that would create a speed bias. An inside bias will manifest itself as a speed bias every time. There is no way around it. There is no such thing as an inside bias that doesn't favor speed. It's not that complicated. In addition, if there is a speed bias (with no rail bias), it will make it appear like there is a rail bias, because there will be a ton of winners who were on the lead and in the 1 or 2 path turning into the stretch and coming down the stretch. A speed bias can easily be mistaken for a rail bias. |
#3
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I understand the point you’re trying to make. A speed bias will look like an inside bias because a majority of speed horses gravitate towards the rail. But that isn’t a true rail bias. A true rail bias is what we saw at Belmont Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Speed and closers who spent a good amount of time on the rail did well. Look at the H Man race on Friday and where the winner and runner up spent a good portion of their time running. You’re trying to oversimplify it and you’re incorrect. If you spent any time following the Aqueduct inner when we used to really get some gold rails you’d know the difference. |
#4
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I am not a big believer in inside or outside biases. I'm not saying they it has never happened before. I'm sure it has happened in the past, especially after a lot of rain. But right now I think inside/outside biases are mainly a figment of the imagination of handicappers who are trying to come up with a way to explain a certain result. If I am wrong and these biases exist and are common, then I guess I'm missing out on a great handicapping angle. If playing inside/outside biases is making you money, then keep doing it and I wish you continued success. Here is an article that talks about all the science that goes into maintaining the track at Belmont. By the way, if they want to speed up or slow the down the track, it is easy for them to do. They can make the harrows go a little deeper if the track is getting too fast. Don't let anyone tell you that if the track is lightening fast that it wasn't something they wanted. If they didn't want it that fast, they would slow it down. As the article says, they have all this stuff down to a science. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...t-belmont-park |
#5
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Before I waste another second of my time doing this with you, have you watched all of the races from Thursday, Friday and Saturday that were run on the dirt? |
#6
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Can you explain with all of their sophisticated equipment and constant testing, how they failed to detect the supposed rail bias? You and Andy better contact Glen and inform him about the rail bias so he can fix it. By the way, the good news is that you will make a fortune next time when these horses come back, who were negatively affected by the supposed inside bias. I hope you took good notes. Who are some of the horses that you will be betting back next time because they were compromised by the inside bias? We will see if you are right. If they all come back and run lousy, it may be time for you to reevaluate. |
#7
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