The Graveyard of Champions Claims Another

[JimmyEllis]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So Espinoza erred by using his horse's best weapon, his speed? Not sure I'm understanding this point at all.

American Pharoah was the lone speed on paper, he got the lead, went a moderate half-mile, was engaged and was beaten. He ran a fine race, one that was on par with the rest that he had run.

When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

[Travis Stone]

When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

When you enter the stretch of any horse race, it's time to go... playing mini-chess games with rivals around you is a sure way to get beat.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis

American Pharoah was the lone speed on paper, he got the lead, went a moderate half-mile, was engaged and was beaten. He ran a fine race, one that was on par with the rest that he had run.[/QUOTE
When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis

When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

What are we talking about when we say "inferior horse"? It is not as if Frosted was some 40-1 Durrow ex-claimer rabbit used to soften up Ghostzapper or Commentator.

On form, American Pharoah is a couple of lengths better than Frosted. That doesn't mean he's able to fool with the horse at his leisure.

The way this race shook out was little different than the 1998 Jockey Club Gold Cup (HOY Skip Away softens up Arg champ Gentlemen), the 2004 Personal Ensign (MGSW Roar Emotion softens up HOY Azeri), or the 2010 Personal Ensign (MG1W Life At Ten softens up HOY Rachel Alexandra).

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.

Agree 150% but I still think Victor does need to take some of the blame.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I thought it funny that right after the race Zayat was, "Maybe we should retire him. I think we should retire him," and the next day Baffert was just, "Yeah, we'll train him up to the Classic."

Mr Zayat let his disappointment and emotions do the talking. I'm sure he was saddened by the outcome. Now they have a clearer head to rest him for a couple weeks and train up to the Classic sound perfect. I also hope they get him there a week ahead of time, two I'd prefer. I never like this shipping on Wed and running on Sat especially on a plane from that distance.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Not sure why people are killing Lezcano, I thought he gave Frosted a terrific ride. If he doesn't go, everyone is bitching and moaning how they all let AP waltz on the front end. He never got in front of AP in the past with the tactics that were used, so why not switch it up?

As far as Victor goes, I thought I heard him say in an interview that he knew at the half pole that he didn't have the horse that he was use to having. That being said, he kept him engaged and AP deserves some credit for digging in and putting Frosted away.

Then there is Keen Ice, who is getting zero credit. Sure Javy let Lezcano and Frosted do all the dirty work, but I do think this horse is improving. I honestly didn't expect him to win, but he was on my pick 4 ticket (that was dead after the first leg), just cause he was the only horse that I remember on Haskell day that seemed to make up any type of ground on the Monmouth freeway (regardless of AP being geared down at the end), plus the added panel.

I just don't get all the complaining. Zayad gave us what we wanted and he got beat. That's what makes this game so great. Let's just hope they decide to run him in the Breeders Cup, that would be fun.

I thought Lezcano did a good job, too. As thrilling as finally getting to see a TC happen was, I puzzled over why nobody tried to go with AP in the Belmont, since it gets won on the lead pretty often. What else was Lezcano going to do here? It's clear if you leave AP alone on the lead, he wins.

Doug posted years ago about horses dueling in discussing one of Rachel Alexandra's losses, and I remember he said even if the pace doesn't seem fast, a duel takes a lot out of a horse, just from the nature of how horses interact. AP may have been tired going into the race, or Lezcano's ride on Frosted may have thrown AP out of his comfort zone and that might have taken the starch out of him. Either way, between this and Kentucky Derby being his hardest races, I think it shows that under the right conditions, he's vulnerable at 1&1/4, and that makes for a more interesting BCC. You're right; it'll be fun if he runs in it.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

I thought Lezcano did a good job, too. As thrilling as finally getting to see a TC happen was, I puzzled over why nobody tried to go with AP in the Belmont, since it gets won on the lead pretty often. What else was Lezcano going to do here? It's clear if you leave AP alone on the lead, he wins.

Doug posted years ago about horses dueling in discussing one of Rachel Alexandra's losses, and I remember he said even if the pace doesn't seem fast, a duel takes a lot out of a horse, just from the nature of how horses interact. AP may have been tired going into the race, or Lezcano's ride on Frosted may have thrown AP out of his comfort zone and that might have taken the starch out of him. Either way, between this and Kentucky Derby being his hardest races, I think it shows that under the right conditions, he's vulnerable at 1&1/4, and that makes for a more interesting BCC. You're right; it'll be fun if he runs in it.

yeah, there's a quote...it's not how fast they run, it's how they run fast.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Mr Zayat let his disappointment and emotions do the talking. I'm sure he was saddened by the outcome. Now they have a clearer head to rest him for a couple weeks and train up to the Classic sound perfect. I also hope they get him there a week ahead of time, two I'd prefer. I never like this shipping on Wed and running on Sat especially on a plane from that distance.

except every trainer generally says you go a couple days in, or a couple weeks in. i doubt baffert is willing to do the latter.

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

When did it become the Graveyard of Champions? It was always "Graveyard of Favorites."

Per Harvey Pack " it's the graveyard of bad handicappers"

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.

To be fair, 48.1 111.2 for 10f at Saratoga is pretty quick...

[munster705]

I had the privilege of being there on Saturday....in my opinion the 2nd best racing day of there next to Breeder's Cup Saturday. Here are the four things I take away from the race:

1. What should Lezcano have done? If he lets AP go on his own the race is all over. Lezcano rode a race to win...not to soften up AP for someone else.

2. Once they flashed the 1/2 mile time I thought the race was over. I am still shocked that AP came up empty with those fractions.

3. Whoever decided to run AP at the Travers made a huge mistake. That is simply one too many races leading up to the Classic.

4. Did anyone else hear the crowd booing Keen Ice for winning? I have to say I felt a little bit sick to my stomach, maybe it was just the people around me....but that horse deserves a ton of credit not only for winning the Travers, but also for what he has accomplished this year. The connections have never dodged AP and seemed to have always showed up where AP went.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It would be interesting to know what exactly was Lezcano's game plan with Frosted. Was he simply targeting American Pharoah or was he trying to make the lead (perhaps thinking AP would sit just off the frontrunner ala the AK Derby, KY Derby, and Haskell)?

From a running style standpoint, Frosted is fairly versatile. He showed solid early speed in Florida and in his maiden breaker at 2. In the Wood, he seemed rejuvenated with an off-the-pace style (although I believe he also had corrective throat surgery at the same time). In the Derby, he came from well out of it and closed stoutly, yet ultimately made no impression on the top two home. In the Belmont, he stalked and let American Pharoah dictate the running, then made a strong move at him (while having to steady slightly on the far turn) in the stretch, but could not get even within a length of him. So unless his connections were resigned to running for second money, sending him to the lead made a lot of sense. It was the only tool they had yet to use to reverse form on AP.

Of course, it still didn't work. But what it did do was force Espinoza to ride the race as if it were 9f and not 10f. As Baffert himself said, AP won the Kentucky Derby "on guts" and "got away with it". Many people suggested, despite winning the Derby, that AP had come back down to earth. The rest of the Triple Crown, which was practically scripted for AP's ascension (a torrential downpour minutes before the Preakness, a paceless Belmont) brushed away all those nagging concerns about AP and distance limitations. The facile manner of the subsequent Haskell further solidified the mantle of invincibility bestowed on this horse. But in the end, like many a brilliant racehorse, AP will always be vulnerable at the classic distances, especially when there is an honest pace scenario.

I think Lezcano clearly rode to win the race. I saw nothing wrong with his ride.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Agree 150% but I still think Victor does need to take some of the blame.

I disagree with this. Blame the draw. I think if you reverse AP and Frosted's post positions AP wins and Frosted finishes like 5th. I think CJ also mentioned this.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I disagree with this. Blame the draw. I think if you reverse AP and Frosted's post positions AP wins and Frosted finishes like 5th. I think CJ also mentioned this.

Not sure I understand this. Are you saying the 2 post would have compromised Frosted's ability to get near the lead? Cause you have to think that Victor was going to the lead no matter what post he was breaking from.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Problem? AP is not "normal". Wrong on both accounts but no biggie.

Right there! That's the argument I've been having with him. People have been trying to elevate Pharoah to great and hall of fame status because of his accomplishments while not taking a closer look at his actual ability. The fact is, he is not a normal horse so I don't think we should settle for him doing what is considered normal. To whom much is given, much is required.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Not sure I understand this. Are you saying the 2 post would have compromised Frosted's ability to get near the lead? Cause you have to think that Victor was going to the lead no matter what post he was breaking from.

I think he would have sat just off Frosted and won. He is never rank, he never really pulls. I think the inside forced his hand a little.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I disagree with this. Blame the draw. I think if you reverse AP and Frosted's post positions AP wins and Frosted finishes like 5th. I think CJ also mentioned this.

Actually if AP was really the AP we knew before he could have drawn anything and won. I still have to give Victor some of the blame for panicking and urging AP too prematurely when Frosted eye balled him. Victor's thinking "wow, we're getting pressed not real, what do I do, never seen this" panic sets in and he helps get AP out of his realm. All that said it wouldn't have mattered, or he just was not the AP we all know well that day.

Let's get over it and move on or you can all continue this futile analysis for an other week and prove nothing. Go for it or not.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Actually if AP was really the AP we knew before he could have drawn anything and won. I still have to give Victor some of the blame for panicking and urging AP too prematurely when Frosted eye balled him. Victor's thinking "wow, we're getting pressed not real, what do I do, never seen this" panic sets in and he helps get AP out of his realm. All that said it wouldn't have mattered, or he just was not the AP we all know well that day.

Let's get over it and move on or you can all continue this futile analysis for an other week and prove nothing. Go for it or not.

I still don't understand how victor did anything wrong. Was he supposed to let frosted go by him?

Pharaoh broke well, went to the lead and settled. He got pressed by a multiple stake winning horse and victor asked his horse to keep up and then asked him for all he had in the stretch. The dynamics of the race are beyond his control. It's not like he had a five length lead on the far turn and started scrubbing with no one around him.

Maybe it was the pace, maybe it was the ships and maybe it was the track. Maybe it was just the way the race shaped up. But it wasn't the jock.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Actually if AP was really the AP we knew before he could have drawn anything and won. I still have to give Victor some of the blame for panicking and urging AP too prematurely when Frosted eye balled him. Victor's thinking "wow, we're getting pressed not real, what do I do, never seen this" panic sets in and he helps get AP out of his realm. All that said it wouldn't have mattered, or he just was not the AP we all know well that day.

Let's get over it and move on or you can all continue this futile analysis for an other week and prove nothing. Go for it or not.

I think you need to get over it. You type a lot of garbage around here. AP ran pretty much the same race he always runs, w/ the exception of the giant performance @Monmouth. He is not a super horse. He is a very good 3yr old. He won the triple crown and that cant ever be taken away from him. But Frosted engaged him early and he lost. I do believe there were different circumstances that would have led to an AP victory, but I don't believe he is some super horse, and you continue to post that all over this place. The speed figures on beyer and timeform are in line w/ almost every race he has run. How can you say it wasn't AP or he had a bad day. That's simply not true, at all. But you continue to spew drivel. You cant be objective about the horse. At least admit it, and maybe try to move on.