The Graveyard of Champions Claims Another

[JimmyEllis]

Lezcano didn't do anything wrong. Espinosa did have the option of stalking. Why the focus on Lezcano rather than Espinosa? Johnny V wins on AP. Espinosa not only let an inferior horse, that did essentially ZERO running, win a coveted race but he also gutted his horse in the process. Did he actually think that Frosted would beat him (unlikely) or was he more concerned with winning by open lengths - without regard to the cost to the horse?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis

Lezcano didn't do anything wrong. Espinosa did have the option of stalking. Why the focus on Lezcano rather than Espinosa? Johnny V wins on AP. Espinosa not only let an inferior horse, that did essentially ZERO running, win a coveted race but he also gutted his horse in the process. Did he actually think that Frosted would beat him (unlikely) or was he more concerned with winning by open lengths - without regard to the cost to the horse?

So Espinoza erred by using his horse's best weapon, his speed? Not sure I'm understanding this point at all.

American Pharoah was the lone speed on paper, he got the lead, went a moderate half-mile, was engaged and was beaten. He ran a fine race, one that was on par with the rest that he had run.

[JimmyEllis]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So Espinoza erred by using his horse's best weapon, his speed? Not sure I'm understanding this point at all.

American Pharoah was the lone speed on paper, he got the lead, went a moderate half-mile, was engaged and was beaten. He ran a fine race, one that was on par with the rest that he had run.

When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

[Travis Stone]

When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

When you enter the stretch of any horse race, it's time to go... playing mini-chess games with rivals around you is a sure way to get beat.

[JimmyEllis]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

When you enter the stretch of any horse race, it's time to go... playing mini-chess games with rivals around you is a sure way to get beat.

If this were true, then horses would never 'come again' in the stretch to win races. I suggest going to YOUTUBE and watching a replay of the 2009 Vinery Madison stakes. See if Informed Decision's rider followed your advice.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis

American Pharoah was the lone speed on paper, he got the lead, went a moderate half-mile, was engaged and was beaten. He ran a fine race, one that was on par with the rest that he had run.[/QUOTE
When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.

Agree 150% but I still think Victor does need to take some of the blame.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Agree 150% but I still think Victor does need to take some of the blame.

I disagree with this. Blame the draw. I think if you reverse AP and Frosted's post positions AP wins and Frosted finishes like 5th. I think CJ also mentioned this.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I disagree with this. Blame the draw. I think if you reverse AP and Frosted's post positions AP wins and Frosted finishes like 5th. I think CJ also mentioned this.

Not sure I understand this. Are you saying the 2 post would have compromised Frosted's ability to get near the lead? Cause you have to think that Victor was going to the lead no matter what post he was breaking from.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I disagree with this. Blame the draw. I think if you reverse AP and Frosted's post positions AP wins and Frosted finishes like 5th. I think CJ also mentioned this.

Actually if AP was really the AP we knew before he could have drawn anything and won. I still have to give Victor some of the blame for panicking and urging AP too prematurely when Frosted eye balled him. Victor's thinking "wow, we're getting pressed not real, what do I do, never seen this" panic sets in and he helps get AP out of his realm. All that said it wouldn't have mattered, or he just was not the AP we all know well that day.

Let's get over it and move on or you can all continue this futile analysis for an other week and prove nothing. Go for it or not.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.

To be fair, 48.1 111.2 for 10f at Saratoga is pretty quick...

[munster705]

I had the privilege of being there on Saturday....in my opinion the 2nd best racing day of there next to Breeder's Cup Saturday. Here are the four things I take away from the race:

1. What should Lezcano have done? If he lets AP go on his own the race is all over. Lezcano rode a race to win...not to soften up AP for someone else.

2. Once they flashed the 1/2 mile time I thought the race was over. I am still shocked that AP came up empty with those fractions.

3. Whoever decided to run AP at the Travers made a huge mistake. That is simply one too many races leading up to the Classic.

4. Did anyone else hear the crowd booing Keen Ice for winning? I have to say I felt a little bit sick to my stomach, maybe it was just the people around me....but that horse deserves a ton of credit not only for winning the Travers, but also for what he has accomplished this year. The connections have never dodged AP and seemed to have always showed up where AP went.

[JimmyEllis]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I'm sorry, I disagree. I just don't think it was his day. When I saw the opening half go in 48 and change, I thought he was just gonna jog home. It's just not as simple as say a drag race, where a corvette is going to spot a Altima 5 lengths in the stretch and run him down when he wants every time. Even though AP is the better horse, they aren't machines. Victor knew his horse was in trouble, he put Frosted away when he was supposed to, unfortunately he just wasn't good enough on this day to hold off Keen Ice.

5 lengths, really? I'm talking about not asking a horse for its best run entering the stretch and you somehow interpret this is as taking him to the rear of the pack. He put Frosted away too early. And, he really didn't need to put Frosted away.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis

When you enter the stretch dueling with an inferior horse you have two choices:
Fixate on a horse that can't beat you and ask your horse so you can put the other horse away as early as possible

Or

Realize that you can get that one any time you want and that doing it too early allows other horses into the race and your horse might not have anything left.

Pat Day understood this. JV does as well. Espinosa doesn't.

What are we talking about when we say "inferior horse"? It is not as if Frosted was some 40-1 Durrow ex-claimer rabbit used to soften up Ghostzapper or Commentator.

On form, American Pharoah is a couple of lengths better than Frosted. That doesn't mean he's able to fool with the horse at his leisure.

The way this race shook out was little different than the 1998 Jockey Club Gold Cup (HOY Skip Away softens up Arg champ Gentlemen), the 2004 Personal Ensign (MGSW Roar Emotion softens up HOY Azeri), or the 2010 Personal Ensign (MG1W Life At Ten softens up HOY Rachel Alexandra).