15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

Call me crazy, but every time we have a Triple Crown on the line, We all get to relive some of the greatest triple crown runs in the last 37 (and counting) years. If AP wins the Triple Crown these great horses become a footnote in history, where as they come back alive for the three weeks between the Preakness and the Belmont. we get to read and watch them race again, as you keep hearing about the misses. The fifteen reasons are:

1 Spectacular Bid
2 Easy Goer
3 Sunday Silence
4 Alysheba
5 Bet Twice
6 Real Quiet
7 Victory Gallop
8 Silver Charm
9 Touch Gold
10 Funny Cide
11 Empire Maker
12 Smarty Jones
13 Big Brown
14 I'll Have Another
15 California Chrome

Every year we get to watch Their TC races again, and relive history, these are some of the greatest that have ever run,I don't want to start a new list. I don't think I'll have another Triple Crown winner, I want to add to this list instead. Like I said call me crazy.........

Save Spectacular Bid were any 2 year old champs? Now look at the 7 TC winners and tell me how many of them indeed were 2 year old champs?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Save Spectacular Bid were any 2 year old champs? Now look at the 7 TC winners and tell me how many of them indeed were 2 year old champs?

Freddy, it's as significant that he was a 2YO champ as it is that he has a short tail. Who cares? Last year's 2YOs were largely a joke with their abbreviated campaigns. Add to it that the widespread belief was that AP would have won the Juvenile, regardless of the negative pace setup he would have faced, because a horse he beat in the prep ended up winning it.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Freddy, it's as significant that he was a 2YO champ as it is that he has a short tail. Who cares? Last year's 2YOs were largely a joke with their abbreviated campaigns. Add to it that the widespread belief was that AP would have won the Juvenile, regardless of the negative pace setup he would have faced, because a horse he beat in the prep ended up winning it.

You left out the part about AP winning the juvenile because he is much better than those that ran, the beloved Upstart included.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

You left out the part about AP winning the juvenile because he is much better than those that ran, the beloved Upstart included.

Upstart has only run 1 poor race in his life and its impossible to know if AP would have won Juvy. Upstart was as good as any 3 year old up to the derby IF you simply evaluate what they do on race day. What's the difference I wonder if we see him again anytime soon if at all. Given his trainer I think he has done enough but I certainly hope he comes back he is a really good colt. I would like him better then any horse save frosted in Belmont.

[FATPIANO]

I am just saying that if he wins (he will not) I would miss hearing about the one's from 1979 to the present that lost, do you ever hear about the one's from Citation to Secretariat? I would miss reliving The Bid, Easy Goer,Smarty etc.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

I guess I was thinking of these: (with emphasis added)

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

I am just saying that if he wins (he will not) I would miss hearing about the one's from 1979 to the present that lost, do you ever hear about the one's from Citation to Secretariat? I would miss reliving The Bid, Easy Goer,Smarty etc.

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

But maybe I'm over-reacting. Alabama Stakes does allow for "If he wins..."

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I guess I was thinking of these: (with emphasis added)

But maybe I'm over-reacting. Alabama Stakes does allow for "If he wins..."

I was speaking in more general terms (beyond message board, Twitter etc.), but funny... yeah, this dead week pre-Belmont brings the best out in all of us!

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

You left out the part about AP winning the juvenile because he is much better than those that ran, the beloved Upstart included.

You left out the part about how adverse pace scenarios/race dynamics present the easiest way for superior horses to be beaten in a given race.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You left out the part about how adverse pace scenarios/race dynamics present the easiest way for superior horses to be beaten in a given race.

I left it out intentionally because it seems pretty evident he can go at his own pace.

Keep up the good fight though.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Freddy, it's as significant that he was a 2YO champ as it is that he has a short tail. Who cares? Last year's 2YOs were largely a joke with their abbreviated campaigns. Add to it that the widespread belief was that AP would have won the Juvenile, regardless of the negative pace setup he would have faced, because a horse he beat in the prep ended up winning it.

I respectfully disagree for the following :

1) History.. of the last 7 winners of TC 6 proved themselves to be outstanding at two to discount this is to suggest that it doesnt matter what you are at two. I can give you 14 out of 15 reasons why that in fact is significant with the lone exception an all time Giant that had a dopey ride on from a novice.

2) To discount brilliance at 2 that affords a championship and carry's into the 3 year old year suggests a lack of emphasis on how infrequent it happens. Uncle Mo is a perfect example as good/fast a baby as I have ever seen just never made it to TC.. Lesson when it happens it means a lot

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I respectfully disagree for the following :

1) History.. of the last 7 winners of TC 6 proved themselves to be outstanding at two to discount this is to suggest that it doesnt matter what you are at two. I can give you 14 out of 15 reasons why that in fact is significant with the lone exception an all time Giant that had a dopey ride on from a novice.

2) To discount brilliance at 2 that affords a championship and carry's into the 3 year old year suggests a lack of emphasis on how infrequent it happens. Uncle Mo is a perfect example as good/fast a baby as I have ever seen just never made it to TC.. Lesson when it happens it means a lot

i really thought you were being tongue in cheek above.

[Alabama Stakes]

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

ditto

[declansharbor]

Since this thread is all about proclaiming opinions as truths, here's my "fact" for the masses.

He breaks clean, settles in, and runs away from them in the stretch. Triple Crown drought is ova!

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

Did you see the derby when he was the dog wearing down the undefeated Dortmund, you know the battle tested horse that gets passed in the lane and then comes back to win, 106 BSF colt. And the well rested Firing Line?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

Whose going to dog him? Materiality is the only that will be able to press him and will get put away by mile pole if he does. The rest of the field is too slow. If AP stays healthy going into this race he will be very tough to beat based on this field.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Whose going to dog him? Materiality is the only that will be able to press him and will get put away by mile pole if he does. The rest of the field is too slow. If AP stays healthy going into this race he will be very tough to beat based on this field.

Materiality should be going for the Crown, if he had a clean break, he will win the Belmont, and silence the crowd

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

You're gonna compare a race where the jock was hopped up on a lot of toot to this? And there's always the story of the safety pin....

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by asudevil

You're gonna compare a race where the jock was hopped up on a lot of toot to this? And there's always the story of the safety pin....

Go read Bids pp's . And in 79 when toot was real everybody was hopped up. The point is that better hosses than AP have failed.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

2) To discount brilliance at 2 that affords a championship and carry's into the 3 year old year suggests a lack of emphasis on how infrequent it happens. Uncle Mo is a perfect example as good/fast a baby as I have ever seen just never made it to TC.. Lesson when it happens it means a lot

Fred, let's look at dual classic winners:

1963: Chateaugay- won 2 of 5 starts at 2; lost Preakness
1964: Northern Dancer- champion 2yo in Canada (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont
1966: Kauai King- won 1 of 4 starts at 2; lost Belmont
1967: Damascus- won 3 of 4 starts at 2 including Remsen; lost Derby
1968: Forward Pass- stakes winner in 2 starts at 2; lost Belmont
1969: Majestic Prince- winner of both starts at 2; lost Belmont
1971: Canonero II- won 1 of 3 starts at 2 (2 in NA); lost Belmont
1972: Riva Ridge- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Preakness
1974: Little Current- maiden in 4 starts at 2; lost Derby
1976: Bold Forbes- won 7 of 8 starts including stakes; lost Preakness
1979: Spectacular Bid- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9); lost Belmont
1981: Pleasant Colony- won 2 of 5 starts including Remsen; lost Belmont
1984: Swale- won 5 of 7 (2nd in vote for champion); lost Preakness
1987: Alysheba- won 1 of 7 starts, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Belmont
1988: Risen Star- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Derby
1989: Sunday Silence- won 1 of 3 starts; lost Belmont
1991: Hansel- won 3 of 5, stakes winner; lost Derby
1993: Tabasco Cat- won 3 of 6, 3rd BC Juvenile; lost Derby
1995: Thunder Gulch- won 2 of 6 including Remsen; lost Preakness
1997: Silver Charm- won 2 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont
1998: Real Quiet- won 2 of 9 starts, including G1; lost Belmont
1999: Charismatic- won 1 of 7 starts; lost Belmont
2002: War Emblem- won 2 of 3 starts; lost Belmont
2003: Funny Cide- won 3 of 3 including stakes; lost Belmont
2004: Smarty Jones- won 2 of 2 including stakes; lost Belmont
2006: Afleet Alex- won 4 of 6, G1, 2nd in Eclipse voting; lost Derby
2008: Big Brown- won only start at 2; lost Belmont
2012: I'll Have Another- won 1 of 3, stakes placed; did not attempt TC
2014: California Chrome- won 3 of 7, including stakes; lost Belmont

Now, recent Triple Crown winners:
1973: Secretariat- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9)
1977: Seattle Slew- champion 2yo (won 3 of 3)
1978: Affirmed- champion 2yo (won 7 of 9)

Finally,

2015: American Pharaoh- champion 2yo (won 2 of 3)

Other curiosities:

-2 of Bob Baffert's other Triple Crown failures won 2 of 3 starts as 2yos. American Pharaoh won 2 of 3 starts as a 2yo.

-of all the horses listed, only 2 ran in the Del Mar Futurity at 2, Silver Charm and California Chrome, both of whom failed in the Belmont. American Pharaoh won the Del Mar Futurity last year.

-average starts at 2 for modern Triple Crown winner = 7
-average starts at 2 for recent Triple Crown failure = 5

-24 of the 29 Triple Crown failures competed in stakes as 2yos