Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I certainly was not an Ice Box fan going into the Derby, but his trip in his allowance win on January 18 (against Pleasant Prince) was far from "perfect." Rather than sitting in behind covered up in a short field, Velazquez moved up him four-wide into the first turn and he then pressed the pace while wide and uncovered. He essentially was able to grind out a win even though Pleasant Prince had a relatively easier (and ground-saving) trip.

No doubt he ran more in that race in terms of distance covered. When I looked at the chart for the race initially, I thought that PP ran the better race. Then I looked at the replay, which concurs with your assessment. It then became a question of which to give more weight to: the wide trip and, essentially, last move or the, relatively, sharp move by PP the 2nd to 3rd split, in what was a layered race. I deferred to the chart, knowing full well that horses that are inside tend to lose ground while behind horses. IB was wider by he also ran later. As it was, IB ran better than PP next time out in the FOY, which apparently proved me wrong. Then again, he was hard pressed to nose PP in the FD.

One constant in all these races: IB made the LAST move. Put him in a race where he has to do his own work and he's just not getting it done. He needs help. Quite a bit of help. So, I ask again: where's his GOOD race?