Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If the argument, and I'm sure I'll be wrong, is that a horse who will ultimately attempt to rally into a race that unfolds in a layered scenario (a la most Derbies) runs into trouble as other horses are moving, it enables him to make that "last run" that often works best in said type of race.

Ice Box is almost always going to be a "last mover" type of horse and he's certainly going to need a layered race (pace that backs up, another horse that moves prematurely and/or collapses the race). I guess the only part of this argument that I'm unsure about is how we can say with certainty that he wouldn't have won the damn thing by three lengths had he been able to swing out just inside the 1/4 pole and make one sustained run down the middle. I probably can't be sure it wouldn't have worked by noting that Lookin at Lucky and Make Music For Me attempted basically that and both came up wanting.

NT

You know how we're relatively sure, Nick? Because Ice Box has never demonstrated the ability to run anything remotely resembling an against the grain race. If I were doing pace numbers, if I were CJ, for example, and I had the data to back up that if a horse runs early fractions xxx, then he's going to come home in final time yyy, you, or anyone else, probably wouldn't try too hard to refute my contention. This is because you'd probably realize that I had copious data to support my conclusion. Well, after having looked at a few million or so Fat Charts over the past few years and have noted 'regularities', I can draw the reasonable conclusion that Ice Box would not have continued on, since LaL and MMFM didn't. I don't know about MMFM but LaL is certainly a horse that has demonstrated the ability to win a race where he doesn't get a perfect trip. Ice Box hasn't. Why would I assume that Ice Box is able to put in a sustained run on Saturday when LaL couldn't?

And, it's not like I have anything in particular against IC. Here's just one of many horses that needs that xtra special trip to win a race. 99% of all horses are probably like that. Why would I assume that he runs down SS then if he doesn't have to go around a whole bunch of horses while drafting when they're driving?

I'm not making this **** up it's obvious in my charts. And, I've learned the hard way ($$$) not to go against the obvious.