Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?

[Linny]

For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound.
Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers.