Which Horses Have A Chance At HOY?

[HaloWishingwell]

Besides obviously Zenyatta which horse or horses can win it with a BC win? Does Workforce have an outside chance with a Turf win if an outsider wins the Classic?

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Besides obviously Zenyatta which horse or horses can win it with a BC win? Does Workforce have an outside chance with a Turf win if an outsider wins the Classic?

No. Not off one American race. All Along won three times in NA in '83, all races coming after the Arc.

Horses with a chance with a Classic win....QR, Blame, and Lucky. Paddy and Haynesfield might get some votes but I can't see them winning. .

[Indian Charlie]

I don't know about you guys, but if all the faves in the BCC bomb, and Uncle Mo shatters a world record in the juvie, my vote would go to him!

[Slewbopper]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I don't know about you guys, but if all the faves in the BCC bomb, and Uncle Mo shatters a world record in the juvie, my vote would go to him!

What if Mr Andy only gives him a 102?

[Danzig]

workforce could potentially win the top turf award if he wins big on bc day...but hoy? no way. obviously if blame or quality road wins the classic, they get HOY. they've both had very good campaigns all year, better than any other horse out there. also, lookin at lucky could get the award should he win.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

What if Mr Andy only gives him a 102?

I don't put a lot of credence to BSF's when used to evaluate the better horses. It seems pretty subjective, some of the time.

However, if Mo shatters a world record as a 2yo for a route distance, it's safe to say he'll get a pretty high number.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I don't know about you guys, but if all the faves in the BCC bomb, and Uncle Mo shatters a world record in the juvie, my vote would go to him!

Not that either scenario is likely to happen but if the logical contenders don't show up in the Classic wouldn't Blind Luck have to get the award before Uncle Mo?

Paul

[Pedigree Ann]

I am very much against Euro shippers winning North American championships off of one race on the continent. Horse racing is NOT like baseball or pro football or basketball, which have tournaments to determine the best team. Horse racing is more like NASCAR or golf; some events are bigger and more prestigious than others but if one of them is won by a longshot, he doesn't automatically become the overall champion. It's what happens over the entire season that matters.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

I am very much against Euro shippers winning North American championships off of one race on the continent. Horse racing is NOT like baseball or pro football or basketball, which have tournaments to determine the best team. Horse racing is more like NASCAR or golf; some events are bigger and more prestigious than others but if one of them is won by a longshot, he doesn't automatically become the overall champion. It's what happens over the entire season that matters.

well, since there are no rules, voters can do what they wish. and most voters probably don't see a turf race other than the bc turf, so there you go. it worked for high chaparral, and could certainly work for workforce.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Not that either scenario is likely to happen but if the logical contenders don't show up in the Classic wouldn't Blind Luck have to get the award before Uncle Mo?

Paul

Blind Luck has lost some races she shouldn't have, has squeaked out others over pretty weak rivals, while Mo would have been undefeated with a world record performance!

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Blind Luck has lost some races she shouldn't have, has squeaked out others over pretty weak rivals, while Mo would have been undefeated with a world record performance!

Plus Blind Luck would still have to win her race over a really soft group. Ill likely bet Evening Jewel if she goes in that spot.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Blind Luck has lost some races she shouldn't have, has squeaked out others over pretty weak rivals, while Mo would have been undefeated with a world record performance!

Again, this is a purely academic exercise as neither has a realistic shot to win the title. That said, Uncle Mo, even with a huge win, would have made only three starts on the year. Blind Luck has gone everywhere, danced every dance (even those requiring multiple trips over the rockies) and has won lots of big races. In fact, with a win in the Distaff, Blind Luck will have more grade one wins than Uncle Mo has starts.

The fact that she has lost sonme races is actually a positive in my thinking. It just proves that she had the most ambitious schedule. She entered every big race. She faced every big name in her division. She always ran her race (even in defeat).

If more horses were campaigned like Blind Luck was this year, we would have a much better sport.

Paul

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Slewbopper

No. Not off one American race. All Along won three times in NA in '83, all races coming after the Arc.

Horses with a chance with a Classic win....QR, Blame, and Lucky. Paddy and Haynesfield might get some votes but I can't see them winning. .

If we are saying a chance, Paddy and Haynesfield would likely win it, if they win the Classic.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Besides obviously Zenyatta which horse or horses can win it with a BC win? Does Workforce have an outside chance with a Turf win if an outsider wins the Classic?

For what its worth, I think Workforce is a toss on primary tickets in the Turf. Intent is so important in the BC, and the race was a pure afterthought for these guys. He'll take a ton of money...I prefer a horse like Tazeez over Workforce.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

For what its worth, I think Workforce is a toss on primary tickets in the Turf. Intent is so important in the BC, and the race was a pure afterthought for these guys. He'll take a ton of money...I prefer a horse like Tazeez over Workforce.

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

He'll take money no doubt, people just seem to like to automatically toss Arc winners because past Arc winners have not done well in the BC turf. I'm not saying I will bet him because you may be correct he probably will be overbet, but he is a talented horse, lightly raced and probably most important he is trained by M Stoute who has a great record in BC's, he could be the first to buck that Arc jinx. Long overdue.

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.

Etc.
Etc.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.

Etc.
Etc.

Subotica also, It's good to look at things historically, but just be flexible enough to recognize we have a pretty good horse here. Look he was highly regarded heading into the arc, off of 4 races I think, Stoute is really a trainer that people should always pay attention to when he ships to the BC, last I looked he had an excellent strike rate. Obviously we both agree in the non jinx thing.

[Linny]

For top Euro's the Arc is THE destination race for the year. In most cases the BCT is somewhat of an afterthought. For Arc winners it might represent a level of hubris on the part of the owners who now see their Arc winner as invincible. For Arc non winners, it's a chance at vindcation, often against far lesser rivals.
The calendar is important too. Some years the Arc has been run far closer to the BC. The Cup is late this year, a full 5 weeks after Arc weekend, giving horses a chance to rebound.
Arc winners are usually very good horses and I wouldn't toss an Arc winner out of hand. I do like to see what the trainers are saying. Remember in European racing, trainers are used to making binding declarative statements. They are called before officials if they change tactics unannounced or use pacemakers without declaring them as such. Thus, I tend to take Euro trainers' statements to Euro racing press as more binding than any of the jabber I hear from American trainers.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by CSC

Subotica also, It's good to look at things historically, but just be flexible enough to recognize we have a pretty good horse here. Look he was highly regarded heading into the arc, off of 4 races I think, Stoute is really a trainer that people should always pay attention to when he ships to the BC, last I looked he had an excellent strike rate. Obviously we both agree in the non jinx thing.

I think Workforce towers over this field.

That race he lost to Harbinger, I saw a reason he ran like such crap in there too. That race was a complete throwout.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've always felt that the Arc jinx is a bunch of hogwash. Many times the Arc winner was up against it coming into the BC. Dancing Brave for instance. As great a horse as he was, I thought that field he was going against was just sick, especially with the great Manila in the race.

Trempolino had Theatrical.

Dylan Thomas was massively overrated and was probably going off form anyways.
.

The Arc is run at a right-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of nearly 2 miles. (The Arc itself is a one-turn race, with a stretch nearly 4f long.) The BC Turf is run on a left-hand-turning track, which has a circumference of a mile or less (less at CD). Is it any wonder that a horse that has excelled under the conditions of the Arc might not find the BC Turf's conditions to be his cup of tea?

Look for Euros with good races on left-hand courses and on those with short stretches, like Chester.