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#1
05-05-2016, 06:04 PM
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5/6: Churchill Downs (142nd Oaks Day)
CHURCHILL DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Modify 6-5 WON ($3.00) Best Value: #2 Naylor 8-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Burma Road 6-1 4th Exotics Use: #9 Garden Goddess 12-1 8th 2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Vickie Wins 4-1 5th Next Best: #9 Conquest Serenade 3-1 WON ($3.60) Best Value: #7 American Holiday 10-1 4th Exotics Use: #8 Bold Quality 7-2 3rd 3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Contrasting 5-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Street Song 6-1 2nd Exotics Use: #1 Paid Up Subscriber 3-1 WON ($6.60) Super Add: #3 Academic Break 5-1 6th 4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Family Tree 9-5 WON ($3.40) Best Value: #1 Afleet Lady 8-1 10th Next Best: #4 Firsthand Report 6-1 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Yankee Lass 6-1 4th 5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Caribbean 3-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Commend 5-2 2nd Best Value: #9 Pitch Count 15-1 6th Exotics Use: #4 Dasaateer 8-1 7th Super Add: #6 Jacob Rocks 10-1 8th P4 Grid: 2: 1-9 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C) 3: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C) 4: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C) 5: 2-8 (A), 4-5-6-9 (B), 3-7-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x6 = $48 All A's: 2x2x2x2 = $16 6th: 31st La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Sheer Drama 8-5 3rd Next Best: #1 Curalina 9-5 WON ($6.60) Best Value: #3 Angela Renee 6-1 4th Exotics Use: #6 Engaginglee 20-1 2nd 7th: 61st Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f ( Most Likely: #5 CARINA MIA 8-5 WON ($3.20) Next Best: #8 Nickname 3-1 3rd Best Value: #3 Summer Reading 8-1 5th Exotics Use: #6 Blip n' the Bye 12-1 2nd P5 Grid: 3: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C) 4: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C) 5: 2-8 (A), 4-5-6-9 (B), 3-7-11 (C) 6: 2 (A), 1 (B), 3-5-6 (C) 7: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-6-8 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x2x1 = 48 x .50 = $24 All A's: 2x2x2x1x1 = $6 P4 Grid: 4: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C) 5: 2-8 (A), 4-5-6-9 (B), 3-7-11 (C) 6: 2 (A), 1 (B), 3-5-6 (C) 7: 5 (A), 8 (B), 1-3-6 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 All A's: 2x2x1x1 = $4 8th: 22 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Power Alert 5-1 3rd Next Best: #11 Something Extra 4-1 5th Best Value: #6 Alsvid 12-1 2nd Exotics Use: #12 Guns Loaded 4-1 6th 9th: 13th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Noble Bird 4-1 8th Best Value: #3 Departing 10-1 5th Next Best: #4 Eagle 7-2 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Majestic Affair 9-2 3rd 10th: 31st Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Outsider Art 8-1 12th Next Best: #10 Catch a Glimpse 2-1 WON ($5.00) Best Value: #3 Nodiac 15-1 6th Exotics Use: #1 Harmonize 4-1 3rd Super Add: #4 Auntie Joy 30-1 2nd 11th: 142nd Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-KD DBL, KO-WR-KD P3, P3, DD, Super Hi-5) Time for the mourning associated with Songbird's absence to end and appreciation for how engaging this Oaks is without her to begin. Just as with Saturday's feature, contention runs deep in this group with very little separating the obvious favorites, mid-priced contenders and $40+ price players. Also like the Derby, there isn't a great deal of speed evident in terms of lead-grabbers, but a host of pace pressers should prompt the tempo more than enough to make it fair for all styles. In terms of how they come in to the event, Lewis Bay, Mokat, Mo d'Amour, Rachel's Valentina and Cathryn Sophia have touted themselves the most having drilled stylishly and/or had nothing but great mornings. Mokat and Mo d'Amour have to prove that they are this quality as winners, but neither would surprise anywhere in the pay slots. Six less runners than in its' male counterpart Saturday, but no less challenging on paper and at the windows.. Most Likely: #3 Lewis Bay 8-1: Classic-bred filly; proven adept at trip; drawn perfectly and style suits race flow.. 3rd Next Best: #11 Rachel's Valentina 7-2: Dam ran best ever Oaks; Ashland better than expected off break.. 6th Best Value: #8 Royal Obsession 20-1: 2nd to Lewis Bay in Gazelle, the price with best win chance.. 11th Exotics Use: #12 Cathryn Sophia 9-2: Songbird exit tripped reconsideration; 'Fastest' but 9f question to answer.. WON ($11.40) Hi-5 Play: #6 Mokat 20-1: Weep & Land Over are better win candidates, but too flashy to ignore as exotics booster.. 13th P5 Grid: 7: 5 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C) 8: 1-11 (A), 6-12 (B), 7-8-9 (C) 9: 3-5 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C) 10: 3-7-10 (A), 1-4-5 (B), 11-12 (C) 11: 3-11 (A), 8 (B), 2-6-12-13 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 1x2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 P4 Grid: 8: 1-11 (A), 6-12 (B), 7-8-9 (C) 9: 3-5 (A), 4 (B), 6-7-9 (C) 10: 7-10 (A), 1-3 (B), 4-6 (C) 11: 3-11 (A), 8 (B), 2-6-12-13 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 2x2x2x2 = $16 ($8 for .50) Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Grid: KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C) WR: 8-10-11-12 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C) KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x4x8 = 192 x .50 = $96 All A's: 3x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 Oaks-Derby DBL: KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C) KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x8 = $48 All A's: 3x4 = $12 ($24 for $2; $60 for $5, etc.) 12th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (DD) Most Likely: #12 Who's Your Drama 8-5 6th Next Best: #5 Conquest Stormy 5-2 WON ($5.20) Best Value: #7 Long Ago 10-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Will Did It 10-1 9th 13th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m Best Value: #4 Stonescape 8-1 4th Next Best: #6 Kiss Limit 3-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Frenchman Bay 8-1 9th Super Add: #10 Mr. Right 6-1 7th P4 Grid: 10: 3-7-10 (A), 1-4-5 (B), 6-11-12 (C) 11: 3-11 (A), 2-8-12-13 (B), 4-6-7 (C) 12: 5-12 (A), - (B), 3-6-7 (C) 13: 4 (A), 6 (B), 2-5-7-10 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x6x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x2x2x1 = $12 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-07-2016 at 12:23 AM. 
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#3
05-06-2016, 06:30 AM
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Steve,
Thanks for the peek under the tent for tomorrow. Having My Man Sam in a one of your A selections makes me a lot more comfortable with my tickets. Hope Saturday is prosperous for everyone!
__________________
2705 Central Avenue
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#4
05-06-2016, 07:31 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
05-06-2016, 07:42 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#6
05-06-2016, 07:50 AM
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Quote:
You bet. As always, sticking with the core four from last week's XB Guide entry and My Man Sam remains on top. Obviously others are 'more likely', but like everything he's done here and where he figures to be trip-wise. And of course the price will be right. Get lucky!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
05-06-2016, 08:45 AM
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Satish Sanan's Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3
Oaks: 11-12 (2-13 as option) Wdfrd: 6-10-12 Derby: 6-11-13-17-20 Main: 2x3x5 = $30 ~ $15 for .50 (Option with 2-13 in Oaks: 4x3x5 = 60 x .50 = $30)
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-07-2016 at 07:33 PM.
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