Derby Trail Forums - 5/6: Churchill Downs (142nd Oaks Day)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Modify 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #2 Naylor 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Burma Road 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Garden Goddess 12-1 8th

2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Vickie Wins 4-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Conquest Serenade 3-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 American Holiday 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Bold Quality 7-2 3rd

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Contrasting 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Street Song 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Paid Up Subscriber 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #3 Academic Break 5-1 6th

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Family Tree 9-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #1 Afleet Lady 8-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Firsthand Report 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Yankee Lass 6-1 4th

5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Caribbean 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Commend 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Pitch Count 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Dasaateer 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Jacob Rocks 10-1 8th

P4 Grid:

2: 1-9 (A), - (B), 7-8 (C)
3: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
4: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
5: 2-8 (A), 4-5-6-9 (B), 3-7-11 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x6 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x2 = $16

6th: 31st La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Sheer Drama 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Curalina 9-5 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #3 Angela Renee 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Engaginglee 20-1 2nd

7th: 61st Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (

Most Likely: #5 CARINA MIA 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #8 Nickname 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Summer Reading 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Blip n' the Bye 12-1 2nd

P5 Grid:

3: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-3 (C)
4: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
5: 2-8 (A), 4-5-6-9 (B), 3-7-11 (C)
6: 2 (A), 1 (B), 3-5-6 (C)
7: 5 (A), - (B), 1-3-6-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x6x2x1 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A's: 2x2x2x1x1 = $6

P4 Grid:

4: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
5: 2-8 (A), 4-5-6-9 (B), 3-7-11 (C)
6: 2 (A), 1 (B), 3-5-6 (C)
7: 5 (A), 8 (B), 1-3-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x6x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
All A's: 2x2x1x1 = $4

8th: 22 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Power Alert 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Something Extra 4-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Alsvid 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Guns Loaded 4-1 6th

9th: 13th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Noble Bird 4-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Departing 10-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Eagle 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Majestic Affair 9-2 3rd

10th: 31st Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Outsider Art 8-1 12th
Next Best: #10 Catch a Glimpse 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #3 Nodiac 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Harmonize 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Auntie Joy 30-1 2nd

11th: 142nd Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-KD DBL, KO-WR-KD P3, P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

Time for the mourning associated with Songbird's absence to end and appreciation for how engaging this Oaks is without her to begin. Just as with Saturday's feature, contention runs deep in this group with very little separating the obvious favorites, mid-priced contenders and $40+ price players. Also like the Derby, there isn't a great deal of speed evident in terms of lead-grabbers, but a host of pace pressers should prompt the tempo more than enough to make it fair for all styles. In terms of how they come in to the event, Lewis Bay, Mokat, Mo d'Amour, Rachel's Valentina and Cathryn Sophia have touted themselves the most having drilled stylishly and/or had nothing but great mornings. Mokat and Mo d'Amour have to prove that they are this quality as winners, but neither would surprise anywhere in the pay slots. Six less runners than in its' male counterpart Saturday, but no less challenging on paper and at the windows..

Most Likely: #3 Lewis Bay 8-1: Classic-bred filly; proven adept at trip; drawn perfectly and style suits race flow.. 3rd
Next Best: #11 Rachel's Valentina 7-2: Dam ran best ever Oaks; Ashland better than expected off break.. 6th
Best Value: #8 Royal Obsession 20-1: 2nd to Lewis Bay in Gazelle, the price with best win chance.. 11th
Exotics Use: #12 Cathryn Sophia 9-2: Songbird exit tripped reconsideration; 'Fastest' but 9f question to answer.. WON ($11.40)
Hi-5 Play: #6 Mokat 20-1: Weep & Land Over are better win candidates, but too flashy to ignore as exotics booster.. 13th

P5 Grid:

7: 5 (A), - (B), 3-8 (C)
8: 1-11 (A), 6-12 (B), 7-8-9 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), - (B), 4-6 (C)
10: 3-7-10 (A), 1-4-5 (B), 11-12 (C)
11: 3-11 (A), 8 (B), 2-6-12-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12

P4 Grid:

8: 1-11 (A), 6-12 (B), 7-8-9 (C)
9: 3-5 (A), 4 (B), 6-7-9 (C)
10: 7-10 (A), 1-3 (B), 4-6 (C)
11: 3-11 (A), 8 (B), 2-6-12-13 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)

Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Grid:

KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
WR: 8-10-11-12 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x4x8 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24

Oaks-Derby DBL:

KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x8 = $48
All A's: 3x4 = $12 ($24 for $2; $60 for $5, etc.)

12th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #12 Who's Your Drama 8-5 6th
Next Best: #5 Conquest Stormy 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #7 Long Ago 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Will Did It 10-1 9th

13th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m

Best Value: #4 Stonescape 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Kiss Limit 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Frenchman Bay 8-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Mr. Right 6-1 7th

P4 Grid:

10: 3-7-10 (A), 1-4-5 (B), 6-11-12 (C)
11: 3-11 (A), 2-8-12-13 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
12: 5-12 (A), - (B), 3-6-7 (C)
13: 4 (A), 6 (B), 2-5-7-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x6x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x1 = $12

Good luck!
Steve