11/24: Aqueduct ($109k C/O; 2nd-10th)

[Kasept]

It's been a good fall stand, but will be glad to see Churchill meet end Sunday. I didn't mind taking a hit watching Shackleford finish his career with a win in the G1 Clark, but it's been nearly impossible for me to get a happy result at the Downs other than last week's chalky P5/P4.

Shack's 4th career stakes win, to go with the Preakness, Met Mile and Churchill Downs Handicap, closes out a terrific career that saw him earn $3,090,101 in 20 starts. I saw many people call him over-rated going into this post-BC redemption chance, but his classic at Baltimore (9.5f), important Met (1m) and Clark (9f) are complimented with 3 more G1 placements (BC Dirt Mile-Caleb's Posse; Haskell-Coil; FL Derby-Dialed In) and 2 other G2 seconds (Kelso-Jersey Town; IN Derby-Wilburn). His lone 3rd was to Jackson Bend and Caleb's Posse in the Carter and he was 4th of course in the Derby behind Animal Kingdom, Nehro and Mucho Macho Man.

How 'over-rated' can he be in light of that resume? Three of his 7 'off' efforts are excusable easily enough: his career bow on the KEE poly and two wet surface flops in the Vanderbilt and Donn. Of the other losses, he was marooned wide in the Fountain of Youth; the Belmont try was probably ill advised; he ran poorly in the Travers and lost all chance at the start of this year's Dirt Mile.

The reality is that in this era, while he may not have won as much as you'd like in a 'great' horse, Shackleford rarely missed an assignment and almost always turned in a real try. He was admirable and easy to root for and was handled by Dale Romans and Co. in a way that should be particularly appreciated since they were never 'afraid to lose' with him. You generally will have kind feelings for your Derby picks and Shackleford was mine last year. He should be a popular sire and he leaves behind a lot of fans that will look forward to his progeny hoping they have elements of his fine qualities.

$109k double C/O at Aqueduct for the terrific Cigar Mile card Saturday..


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Revolutionary 3-5 3rd
Best Value: #3 Transparent 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Orb 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: # 8 Market Blaster 20-1 DNF


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Super Slam 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Forty Tales 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Ascendancy 6-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Global Asset 8-1 8th


4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Ava's Playful Run 8-1 14th
Next Best: #6 Smokin Alice 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #16 Glynisthemenace 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Princess Reyana 15-1 7th


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$109k C/O starts here..

Very tough start to C/O sequence with an undefineable group of turfing state-breds. There doesn't appear to be anything that special about 5-2 The Lady Says Yes. There is some sibling strength here and there including Freedom Sings (Freedom Rings & the famed Ham Sandwich family), Platinum and Plush (Gitchee Goomee) and Transplendid (Most Happy Fella). Difficult group to decipher..

Best Value: #6 A Prettydixie 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 As Well 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #10 The Lady Says Yes 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Freedom Sings 20-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2
3: 2-3-4-5-6
4: 4-5-6-10-16
5: 1-2-3-5-6-10

1x5x5x6 = 150 x .50 = $75


6th: 91st Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Emollient 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Unlimited Budget 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #5 Giant Cat's Eye 20-1 3rd


7th: 99th Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Tough to get past obvious here. If you want to be imaginative, thoughts should focus on who will relish the 9f distance..

Most Likely: #9 Normandy Invasion 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Delhomme 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Vegas No Show 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1e Pletcher entry 4-1 WON ($5.50)/10th


8th: 24th Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Solid Cigar got fascinating with addition of wondrous Groupie Doll this week. Certainly love the Bradley filly, but 8-5 is tough to swallow. Drew perfectly and would love to see her win, but this group isn't what she's used to and you are supposed to try and beat her in this spot..

SCR'D down to 5 now with Jersey Town & Associate out..

Best Value: #6 Coil 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Groupie Doll 8-5 2nd


9th: 117th Gazelle (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Have been talking up My Wandy's Girl and have to give her chance to be special here. Hushion, surprisingly, has wheeled back runners in under 10 days a number of times with great success (26% W's; 63% ITM last 16X)..

Most Likely: #7 My Wandy's Girl 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Dance Card 9-5 WON ($5.30)
Best Value: #4 Jemima's Pearl 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Book Review 2-1 6th


10th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #5 Nail It 8-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Prohibition 4-1 WON ($16.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Insighting 5-2 9th
Super Add: #3 Spirit of Peace 30-1 7th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-6-10
6: 1-2
7: 4-9
8: 6-7
9: 7
10: 5-8-10

3x2x2x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-4-9
8: 1-6-7
9: 2-7
10: 3-5-6-8-9-10

4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (1/1/2/10) Paid $103.25


Good luck!
Steve