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  #1  
Old 10-10-2009, 05:59 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Default 10/10: Belmont; Keeneland; Santa Anita

Friday was a third straight entertaining and profitable day as the Keeneland meet opener proved negotiable, at least this one day. Best Value second choices Alice's Smart ($33.40) and Alcibiades heroine Negligee ($27.40) anchored a 5 race sequence of available P3's that rolled to the tune of $423.50 (5th-7th), $213.60 (6th-8th), $783.20 (7th-9th) and $209 (8th-10th). Was also able to finally nail a lucrative .10 Super Spot Play too, seeing through Negligee as a key horse to the $208.84 score. Hope you did well to bankroll today's incredible coast to coast action!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: 60th Jamaica H. (G1), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Courageous Cat 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Boots Ahead 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Take the Points 5-2 WON
Super Add: #3 Grassy 6-1 4th


7th: CLM, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Find the Wire 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Xodo 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Exton 6-1 5th
Super Add: #5 D' Wildcard 3-1 2nd


8th: 62nd Frizette (G1), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Nonna Mia 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Devil May Care 6-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Awesome Maria 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Worship the Moon 6-1 4th


9th: 138th Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (DD)

Best Value: #6 Homeboykris 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #3 Aspire 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Dublin 8-5 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Super Saver 4-1 4th


10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Absolutely tremendous betting race..

Best Value: #7 J L Bernstein 15-1 7th
Most Likely: #5 Livin Large 9-2 WON
Next Best: #9 Quiet On the Tee 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Globemaster 8-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

Taking big chance in opening leg, but tricky stakes and wide open finale demand the risk, with Find the Wire from Weaver-Prado the sequence's best single opp..

7: 6
8: 2-3-4
9: 1-3-5-6
10: 2-4-5-7-9-10

1x3x4x6 = $72



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: 13th Woodford (G3), 3+, 5.5f-T (PP6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mr. Nightlinger 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Due Date 7-2 6th
Must Respect: #7 Silver Timber 5-2 WON
Super Add: #5 Bullet From Abroad 10-1 5th


6th: 29th TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Informed Decision 3-5 WON
Next Best: #6 Carlsbad 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Pious Ashley 12-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Selva 6-1 4th


7th: 12th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Forever Together 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Superior Storm 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 My Princess Jess 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Diamondrella 6-1 WON


8th: 96th Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Hurricane Ike 15-1 11th
Most Likely: #2 Backtalk 4-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Dixie Band 5-1 10th
Super Add: #8 Aikenite 5-1 2nd


9th: 24th Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mr. Sidney 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Sterwins 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Justenuffhumor 5-2 6th
Super Add: #8 Tizdejavu 12-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-8
7: 5-6-8-9
8: 1-2-7-8-9-14
9: 2-6-7

2x4x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


10th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 John Kelly 4-1 9th
Best Value: #8 Antitrust 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Speight the Halo 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Grand Daddy 30-1 6th
High 5 Play: #4 More Than Willing 5-1 3rd


<$75 .50 P4 Play:

7: 5-9
8: 1-2-7-8-9-14
9: 2-6
10: 1-3-4-5-8-9

2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72



OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: 33rd Yellow Ribbon (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Magical Fantasy 8-5 WON
Best Value: #6 Charming Legacy 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Black Mamba 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Visit 5-1 2nd


5th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Evening Jewel 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Excellent News 8-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Stunning Ally 6-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Pocatello Wild Kat 20-1 8th


6th: 24th Oak Tree Mile (G2), 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Skyrush 12-1 4th
Most Likely: #10 Whatsthescript 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 Cowboy Cal 2-1 WON
Super Add: #1 SCR


7th: 28th Goodwood (G1), 3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating edition of this important Breeders' Cup feeder event, and to be honest, none of the 10 would be an outright surprise. I'll be fishing for biggest prices..

Best Value: #7 Parading 8-1 4th
Repeat Threat: #3 Richard's Kid 8-1 3rd
Pace Player: #5 Tres Borrachos 12-1 9th
Mystery Horse: #8 Gitano Hernando 15-1 WON


8th: 17th Lady's Secret (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Zenyatta 2-5 WON
Best Value: #1 Cocoa Beach 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Life Is Sweet 5-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Anabaa's Creation 12-1


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Another tremendous wagering opportunity..

Most Likely: #7 On Fire 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Concerto's Thunder 12-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Caspian 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Turf and Sky 20-1 10th


10th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #8 Brady Blue Eyes 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Get My Fix 5-2 WON
Next Best: #5 Mr. Charlie 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1 The Skinny Man 3-1 9th
High 5 Play: #4 The Program 12-1 5th


<$150 & <$300 P6 Plays:

5: 5-10
6: 2-10
7: 3-7
8: 5 [1]
9: 2-5-7
10: 5-7-8

<$300: #1 Cocoa Beach/#5 Zenyatta in Leg D (2x2x2x2x3x3 = 144 x $2 = $288)

<$150: Single of #5 Zenyatta in Leg D (2x2x2x1x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144)


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-7
8: 1-5
9: 2-4-5-7
10: 1-5-7-8

2x2x4x4 = $64


Good luck!
Steve
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.

Last edited by Kasept : 10-11-2009 at 07:02 AM.
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  #2  
Old 10-10-2009, 09:15 AM
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declansharbor declansharbor is offline
Hialeah Park
 
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Steve,

Thx for the hard work that you put forth day in-day out. Let's keep the gravy train with biscuit wheels moving along!

I'm hoping that Justenuffhumor can encounter some trouble in the Shadwell. Either that, or is just plain outkicked. Today is the day to go against him, imo. His past races that I've said this about, he opens up mid-stretch like he has an ACME rocket tied to him, but this time I'm banking on his streak to come to an end. The good thing for his backers is that there are others in here that are going to take some money, so he won't be too, too low

Looking for Mr Sidney, Battle of Hastings, and Sterwins to sit the trips today in that one.
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  #3  
Old 10-10-2009, 09:28 AM
GPK GPK is offline
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I think Rosa Grace is a nice price play in the Yellow Ribbon.
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  #4  
Old 10-10-2009, 09:38 AM
arizonadave
 
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I like Carlsbad in the 6th at Keeneland, a nice filly who started at Turf Paradise.

Last edited by arizonadave : 10-10-2009 at 09:48 AM.
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  #5  
Old 10-10-2009, 09:42 AM
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golfer golfer is offline
The Curragh
 
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Posts: 2,608
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Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor
Steve,

Thx for the hard work that you put forth day in-day out. Let's keep the gravy train with biscuit wheels moving along!

I'm hoping that Justenuffhumor can encounter some trouble in the Shadwell. Either that, or is just plain outkicked. Today is the day to go against him, imo. His past races that I've said this about, he opens up mid-stretch like he has an ACME rocket tied to him, but this time I'm banking on his streak to come to an end. The good thing for his backers is that there are others in here that are going to take some money, so he won't be too, too low

Looking for Mr Sidney, Battle of Hastings, and Sterwins to sit the trips today in that one.
I LOVE Justenuffhumor today, and am basing my major plays around him. He's got just about the quickest turn of foot/acceleration I've seen, and I think 1 mile is the perfect distance for him. Today's the day he proves whether or not he fits with the top turfers, and I agree with you that he shouldn't be much lower than the ML 5-2. In fact, I was surprised he was the ML fave. We shall see.
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  #6  
Old 10-10-2009, 10:35 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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BEL SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp


KEE SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.keeneland.com/racing/List...lItemsalt.aspx
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #7  
Old 10-10-2009, 10:38 AM
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golfer golfer is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
BEL SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp


Some confusion, but based on their own website, it looks like the Keeneland all-stakes P4 is a $1 minimum... They distinguish the late P4 as a .50 and do not make that same notation for the all-stakes:
http://www.keeneland.com/racing/frames/entries.aspx


KEE SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.keeneland.com/racing/List...lItemsalt.aspx
Steve, I've already played an All Stakes pick 4 for .50 cents through Twinspires.
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  #8  
Old 10-10-2009, 10:41 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golfer
Steve, I've already played an All Stakes pick 4 for .50 cents through Twinspires.
Excellent! Thanks! This is one of those maddening stupidities for which there is no excuse.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #9  
Old 10-10-2009, 10:41 AM
mclem0822 mclem0822 is offline
Del Mar
 
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Location: Jacksonville, Florida
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golfer
Steve, I've already played an All Stakes pick 4 for .50 cents through Twinspires.
Yeah, it's set up to start at .50 cents.
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  #10  
Old 10-10-2009, 10:42 AM
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Bigsmc Bigsmc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by golfer
Steve, I've already played an All Stakes pick 4 for .50 cents through Twinspires.
I just put one in on Youbet also. $0.50
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  #11  
Old 10-10-2009, 05:12 PM
Coach Pants
 
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Hunch play

Keeneland 10

Antitrust $40 win
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  #12  
Old 10-10-2009, 06:05 PM
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pointman pointman is offline
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The Goodwood looks like a sign to me that the Euro's will once again dominate the so called BC "dirt" races this year.

Last edited by pointman : 10-10-2009 at 06:36 PM.
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  #13  
Old 10-10-2009, 06:30 PM
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pointman pointman is offline
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Willing to take a shot against Zenyatta today, $20W 8
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  #14  
Old 10-10-2009, 06:35 PM
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pointman pointman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pointman
Willing to take a shot against Zenyatta today, $20W 8
Guess not, she did enough to win again, nice job by her.
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