Nice try Nostradamus - Page 2

Nostradamus · #21 09-09-2006, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

he ought to go in the classic...he's a good horse, but you gotta be much better than good to beat older as a 3 yo....

here's hoping he runs next year, don't see why showing up wouldn't....maybe he can pull a 'lava man' and win gr 1's on both surfaces. of course now i guess we have to say on three surfaces, don't we?

He will be back next year. There is not huge interest in him as a stallion. His pedigree is not great and he is pretty tiny. He had some soundness issues at 2 also and the owners let Barclay decide everything because they are not that connected to Showing Up. I am pretty sure Barclay would like to have him in the barn next year. They still think he might be a great miler on the dirt.

Danzig · #22 09-09-2006, 08:40 PM

i know i had seen in the past they planned to run him at four, good!

just put him up as one of my picks as a star for next year.

Nostradamus · #23 09-09-2006, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

i know i had seen in the past they planned to run him at four, good!

just put him up as one of my picks as a star for next year.

Barclay handles him very carefully. He was not healthy at 2. I would like to see him try the dirt again but the turf is easier on him. He was injured twice this year on the dirt and he seems to like the turf a little more. I think he needs to find out if he can't run 12F or if it was just that he didn't like the off turf. I have a gut feeling he will be in the Breeders Cup Turf. He might just need more than 4 weeks between races.

GPK · #24 09-09-2006, 08:45 PM

Sometimes, I really think people forget how difficult it is for a 3YO to beat older horses. Just as there is a maturation process from 2YO-3YO, there is also a difference from age 3-4.

Danzig · #25 09-09-2006, 08:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Sometimes, I really think people forget how difficult it is for a 3YO to beat older horses. Just as there is a maturation process from 2YO-3YO, there is also a difference from age 3-4.

no, not sometimes...a lot of times. and i get pounced on when i encourage caution...but hey, if you're gonna dream, i guess you have to dream big.

Nostradamus · #26 09-09-2006, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Sometimes, I really think people forget how difficult it is for a 3YO to beat older horses. Just as there is a maturation process from 2YO-3YO, there is also a difference from age 3-4.

You should know. English Channel ran a huge race last year and was beaten by Shakespeare by a nose. It looks like the Eclipse is English Channels to lose. He will be deserving if he can win the Turf Classic and hit the board in the Breeders Cup Turf.

GPK · #27 09-09-2006, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

You should know. English Channel ran a huge race last year and was beaten by Shakespeare by a nose. It looks like the Eclipse is English Channels to lose. He will be deserving if he can win the Turf Classic and hit the board in the Breeders Cup Turf.

Indeed. As good as EC was last year as a 3yo, I said over the winter he would have a monster 4YO year, and he has not dissapointed. His 2 losses this year have come in races where they CRAWLED around the track.

GPK · #28 09-09-2006, 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

no, not sometimes...a lot of times. and i get pounced on when i encourage caution...but hey, if you're gonna dream, i guess you have to dream big.

True Deb....very true. I think SU is a VERY GOOD 3YO turf horse, but I wouldn't have bet him today with your money....not trying olders for the first time.

Nostradamus · #29 09-09-2006, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Indeed. As good as EC was last year as a 3yo, I said over the winter he would have a monster 4YO year, and he has not dissapointed. His 2 losses this year have come in races where they CRAWLED around the track.

He probably is the best american turf horse at 12F but I still do not see how he beats the big horses from europe. The voting will be interesting between him and cacique but I guess Aragorn could win the Eclipse too.

Danzig · #30 09-09-2006, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Indeed. As good as EC was last year as a 3yo, I said over the winter he would have a monster 4YO year, and he has not dissapointed. His 2 losses this year have come in races where they CRAWLED around the track.

and both at 10f, correct? i remember when sulamani came over for the arlington million, the one where gary stevens ended up laying on the finish line while storming home did his best impression of gerald ford coming down the steps....anyway, sulamani was good, real good, but 10f was not his best distance. bingo, he came in fourth...a lot of people jumped on his bandwagon pre-race, because he was the class of the field--but NOT at 10f. those turfers are quirky. most have to have exactly the right ground, and of course the right distance. EC should avoid 10f like the plague.

just think the odds bettors will get on english channel come bc time.

GPK · #31 09-09-2006, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

He probably is the best american turf horse at 12F but I still do not see how he beats the big horses from europe. The voting will be interesting between him and cacique but I guess Aragorn could win the Eclipse too.

Be interesting to see who comes over. He will have to bring his A+ game to have a chance on Nov. 4th.

Danzig · #32 09-09-2006, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

He probably is the best american turf horse at 12F but I still do not see how he beats the big horses from europe. The voting will be interesting between him and cacique but I guess Aragorn could win the Eclipse too.

would love to see aragorn get the nod....but milers are about as respected vs longer turfers as turfers are vs classic on dirt....

also, don't forget high chaparrals repeat win in the bc turf, when he dead heated with johar(WHO?! lol)!
the americans will have a shot if the ground is right. keep an eye on the weather.

GPK · #33 09-09-2006, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

and both at 10f, correct? i remember when sulamani came over for the arlington million, the one where gary stevens ended up laying on the finish line while storming home did his best impression of gerald ford coming down the steps....anyway, sulamani was good, real good, but 10f was not his best distance. bingo, he came in fourth...a lot of people jumped on his bandwagon pre-race, because he was the class of the field--but NOT at 10f. those turfers are quirky. most have to have exactly the right ground, and of course the right distance. EC should avoid 10f like the plague.

just think the odds bettors will get on english channel come bc time.

You think he needs longer??

Danzig · #34 09-09-2006, 09:10 PM

must be, those are his two losses. horses are funny, but turfers are really funny.

a lot of euros like softer going, so if we have a lot of rain leading up the bc, i'd back a euro over an american...but if we have a really firm course (also, overseas they water the track if there's no rain) than i would back an american horse. it's why most euros don't want to show up if the bc is on the west coast. they don't like the track. but when the bc is at belmont for instance, you don't have a problem getting a full field.
a lot of people believe in a euro 'dominance' over here--but i wonder how many paid attention when the stat was put up that the arlington million is won 1/3 of the time by euros, thus 2/3 by north americans. i'd think most would have thought it was the other way around. also, a lot of euro horses come here to run after limited success overseas, generally because they don't like the cut in the ground you get over there, and not over here. our turf is much firmer than overseas...that's why they come here--they're good horses, they're just out of their element over there. it's amazing to me how much the surface affects most turf horses. certainly seem pickier than their dirt running counterparts.

ateamstupid · #35 09-09-2006, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

You should know. English Channel ran a huge race last year and was beaten by Shakespeare by a nose. It looks like the Eclipse is English Channels to lose. He will be deserving if he can win the Turf Classic and hit the board in the Breeders Cup Turf.

I disagree with this.. Cacique is just as deserving as of right now, if not more. Two G1s apiece and Cacique beat him in the Million..

GPK · #36 09-09-2006, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I disagree with this.. Cacique is just as deserving as of right now, if not more. Two G1s apiece and Cacique beat him in the Million..

Joey....that race is a total toss, at least handicapping wise. YOU could have set those fractions and they wouldn't have passed you in the stretch.

GPK · #37 09-09-2006, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig188

must be, those are his two losses. horses are funny, but turfers are really funny.

a lot of euros like softer going, so if we have a lot of rain leading up the bc, i'd back a euro over an american...but if we have a really firm course (also, overseas they water the track if there's no rain) than i would back an american horse. it's why most euros don't want to show up if the bc is on the west coast. they don't like the track. but when the bc is at belmont for instance, you don't have a problem getting a full field.
a lot of people believe in a euro 'dominance' over here--but i wonder how many paid attention when the stat was put up that the arlington million is won 1/3 of the time by euros, thus 2/3 by north americans. i'd think most would have thought it was the other way around. also, a lot of euro horses come here to run after limited success overseas, generally because they don't like the cut in the ground you get over there, and not over here. our turf is much firmer than overseas...that's why they come here--they're good horses, they're just out of their element over there. it's amazing to me how much the surface affects most turf horses. certainly seem pickier than their dirt running counterparts.

I think those two losses were more due to the slow pace in those races as opposed to the distance of the race.

EC has won going 1 1/16, 1 3/16, 1 1/4, 1 3/8

GPK · #38 09-09-2006, 09:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I disagree with this.. Cacique is just as deserving as of right now, if not more. Two G1s apiece and Cacique beat him in the Million..

In the Manhattan that Cacique won he got away with setting fractions of :51.2, 1:16.6, 1:40.4, 2:04.0.

In the Million, EC was 3 wide the whole race and it didn't help when he and Cacique bumped coming out of the gate, pushing EC even wider out than the far outside that he started from. That million was more a jocks race than anything else. How in the hell they could let a horse as game as The Tin Man get away with setting those fractions was beyond me. No one went with him to keep him honest and they all paid the price.

ateamstupid · #39 09-09-2006, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

Joey....that race is a total toss, at least handicapping wise. YOU could have set those fractions and they wouldn't have passed you in the stretch.

I don't know.. my optimal distance is about 8 1/2 furlongs.. after that I'm liable to spit the bit.

GPK · #40 09-09-2006, 09:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't know.. my optimal distance is about 8 1/2 furlongs.. after that I'm liable to spit the bit.

Hell...you got me....I couldn't make a 4 1/2 furlong sprint race at Charlestown.