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-   -   Nice try Nostradamus (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4307)

oracle80 09-09-2006 04:23 PM

Nice try Nostradamus
 
Cacique layed over this field.
Showing Up got away with a perfect trip right off the soft pace and got windburned when cacique exploded by him in a last 1/8th of 10 and change!!!!!!!!

randallscott35 09-09-2006 04:24 PM

Cacique's got an edge on your boy now Kev.

randallscott35 09-09-2006 04:27 PM

Alive in the Pick 4, just like everybody else I believe, to 3,4,5,8, and 11 for a 2$ ticket.

lemoncrush 09-09-2006 04:34 PM

Cacique never fails to fire.

I would never bet a 3 y/o facing a grade 1 calibur field of older horses for the first time. He should have been 4 or 5-1 against this group. As Oracle said, Cacique swallowed him up even after showing up got a cozy trip just off the leader.

Now the finale, which makes me nervous.
$3 pick 4 ticket alive to the 3; $1 pick 4 ticket to the 3,8 and 11.
The first leg was where everyone thought the value would come from, and Gomez came through with the favorite.

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-09-2006 04:44 PM

this 2 is live at belmont s 10th use him in the super ect 16-1....super box 2/3/4/8/11......ouch....lol

PSH 09-09-2006 04:45 PM

Very impressive
 
Visually, had to be his best race to date...
Sitting mid pack seems to suit him well and the closing kick was insane....

Looks ready for a big one on Breeders Cup Day....
Suspect Frankel will train him up to that one...

oracle80 09-09-2006 06:15 PM

In reality Showing Up is the best 3Yo grass horse of the year at this point.
But its awful tough to step up and beat solid older horses like cacique.
He'd be best served aiming at the Hollywood Derby and its lucrative payday rather than the Breeders Cup.

oracle80 09-09-2006 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35
Alive in the Pick 4, just like everybody else I believe, to 3,4,5,8, and 11 for a 2$ ticket.

You know Randall I think Pletcher played better chess here. While cacique has the edge now, I dunno if running him right back in the Turf Classic is the right move.
If he doesnt go and EC does and wins, then he has the edge.
And since both probably won'[t beat the Euros in the BC, basically its EC's championship if he wins the Turf Classic.

Kasept 09-09-2006 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
In reality Showing Up is the best 3Yo grass horse of the year at this point. But its awful tough to step up and beat solid older horses like cacique. He'd be best served aiming at the Hollywood Derby and its lucrative payday rather than the Breeders Cup.

Mike..

I think he'd do well aiming for the BC Mile.. This was his longest try yet, and it's clear while he's versatile, 1.5m is beyond his scope. Think War Chant...

oracle80 09-09-2006 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
Mike..

I think he'd do well aiming for the BC Mile.. This was his longest try yet, and it's clear while he's versatile, 1.5m is beyond his scope. Think War Chant...

Steve hes just not that talented. hes beaten 3Yo's with two perfect trips.
Todays race was really not even as good as his 3rd place looks.
He sat an absolute perfect trip behind dawdling fractions and got first run at the longshot leader when he faded. he had a full tank of gasoline and still got passed by Go deputy.
I saw War Chant, and War Chant he aint. Not even close. If he tries the mile he'd be lucky to beat 4 horses.

Kasept 09-09-2006 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oracle80
Steve hes just not that talented. hes beaten 3Yo's with two perfect trips. Todays race was really not even as good as his 3rd place looks. He sat an absolute perfect trip behind dawdling fractions and got first run at the longshot leader when he faded. he had a full tank of gasoline and still got passed by Go deputy. I saw War Chant, and War Chant he aint. Not even close. If he tries the mile he'd be lucky to beat 4 horses.

His figs fit nicely with these today, and while empty for the stretch drive, it could simply be that it's further than he cares to go. He is far from talentless. The effort at Colonial was quite good, and he's displayed nice versatility up to today. He was giving away experience, and the less than firm footing could have been a factor too.

I think Tagg has to figure out what exactly he's best at, and he doesn't have a great deal of time to do it. The Mile seems like the only logical spot, and you know the Jacksons are going to want to be there. I would say that with the modest career starts, long distance limitations (9.5f max?) and ability to win on dirt and turf, he's the closest thing we've seen to War Chant..

Crown@club 09-09-2006 06:48 PM

Put him in the mile! End of Story! Tired of hearing of the Great Showing Up and that he should win easily.

oracle80 09-09-2006 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept
His figs fit nicely with these today, and while empty for the stretch drive, it could simply be that it's further than he cares to go. He is far from talentless. The effort at Colonial was quite good, and he's displayed nice versatility up to today. He was giving away experience, and the less than firm footing could have been a factor too.

I think Tagg has to figure out what exactly he's best at, and he doesn't have a great deal of time to do it. The Mile seems like the only logical spot, and you know the Jacksons are going to want to be there. I would say that with the modest career starts, long distance limitations (9.5f max?) and ability to win on dirt and turf, he's the closest thing we've seen to War Chant..

To be honest with you if I were Frankel I would run cacique in the mile.
His turn of foot when rated is just crushing, and the mile would allow him to settle off a hotter pace, esepcially at Cd where the mile is two turns.
Don't be surprised if frankel chooses the mile with cacique. hes prone to changing his mind, and I wouldnt be surprised if he went mile with cacique, and won.
Showing Up should be much better at age 4, the properly handled ones always are.

ateamstupid 09-09-2006 07:08 PM

I would like SU in the BCM as well, but why not the Classic? He's obviously a step below Bernardini and Invasor, but last time I checked, third and fourth in that race pay pretty well.

sumitas 09-09-2006 08:01 PM

If SU prior 2 wins on T were on firm then today's showing on good explains the lack of punch. Still a decent effort from SU.

DiscreetCat=Monster 09-09-2006 08:07 PM

Showing Up will get his butt kicked by older horses if he decides to run in the BC he will just get in the way and make someone else miserable in the process
But watch they will run him they will say well we are gonna half to start faceing older sooner or later and for the a chance at the BC purses you better belive he will be there

hoovesupsideyourhead 09-09-2006 08:10 PM

my pick today go deputy ran huge and with a better trip will do well in the bc.....

Nostradamus 09-09-2006 08:32 PM

I will take my beating like a man. I thought he would win and lost $250 on him. I did win it all back in the ninth with my $24 horse I gave out it our picks thread. I also picked Brilliant.

The Showing Up camp was happy with his effort. They just thought he was a little too aggressive. He did run ok but there is a distance question with him. The turf was not very good either. Rumor has it he will try the dirt again. Breeders Cup Classic would be interesting. My brother really thinks he will definitely go in the Breeders Cup Mile.

Danzig 09-09-2006 08:34 PM

he ought to go in the classic...he's a good horse, but you gotta be much better than good to beat older as a 3 yo....

here's hoping he runs next year, don't see why showing up wouldn't....maybe he can pull a 'lava man' and win gr 1's on both surfaces. of course now i guess we have to say on three surfaces, don't we?


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