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#22
04-28-2010, 01:25 PM
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I could see an ALL/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4 being worthwhile bet though. (just used numbers, not actual posts that I like)
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#23
04-28-2010, 01:29 PM
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For your $380 you get (a) some money back, no matter what and (b) the joy of being able to say "I HIT THE EXACTA IN THE DERBY!"
Seriously, IF someone were to try this, you'd want to play a little bit more than $380. You'd want a few bucks to cover the chalkier combos for more than a dollar. Strategically, if you are serious about using this bet as a cornerstone of your Derby betting, you need to spend about another (I'd guess) $50-$75 in "get me closer to even exactas" should the chalk roll in. I'd guess at about $450 total, your maximum downside could probably be limited to $200-$250, while your upside could be a few thousand. It is the relative likelihood of each of those outcomes, in your mind, that governs doing something like this. You'd like to have an idea of the price on the projected chalkiest exacta, first, before undertaking such a thing. And, of course, you have to be somewhat solidly against the chalk hitting the top two slots. I've seen crazier bets (cue for IC to talk about Matt's trfecta boxes....)
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#24
04-28-2010, 01:32 PM
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[quote=randallscott35;640880]
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2009: Mine That Bird/Pioneerof the Nile $2,074.80 2008: Big Brown/Eight Belles $141.60 2007: Street Sense/Hard Spun $101.80 2006: Barbaro/Bluegrass Cat $587.00 2005: Giacomo/Closing Argument $9,814.80 2004: Smarty Jones/Lion Heart $65.20 2003: Funny Cide/Empire Maker $97.00 2002: War Emblem/Proud Citizen $1,300.80 2001: Monarchos/Invisible Ink $1,229.00 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus/Aptitude $66.00
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#25
04-28-2010, 01:33 PM
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I wouldn't be too happy if I bet 760 bucks and got back 150...but that's me.
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#26
04-28-2010, 01:37 PM
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#27
04-28-2010, 01:39 PM
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$84 total
never beaten by another derby entrant (and has defeated another entrant) exacta box Jackson Bend Sidney's Candy Conveyance Line of David finished itm in slop exacta box Mission Impazible Super Saver Devil May Care Backtalk top beyer exacta box Sidney's Candy 100 Devil May Care 100 Jackson Bend 100 Conveyance 99 Ice Box 99 itm at churchill exacta box Backtalk Super Saver Mission Impazible never lost on dirt exacta box Lookin At Lucky Line of David American Lion never ran on dirt exacta box Make Music for Me Sidney's Candy never won on dirt (and has run on dirt) exacta box Paddy O'Prado Dean's Kitten Stately Victor horses that didn't qualify for any list above exacta box Noble's Promise Dublin Discreetly Mine Awesome Act Homeboykris
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#28
04-28-2010, 01:41 PM
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#29
04-28-2010, 01:42 PM
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 Just kidding, I know Doc had this beast... he took me to the Preakness last year because of it.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#31
04-28-2010, 01:43 PM
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Genius work. Seriously- this is a cool approach, regardless of whether it works or not.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#32
04-28-2010, 01:45 PM
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#34
04-28-2010, 01:47 PM
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#35
04-28-2010, 02:11 PM
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#36
04-28-2010, 02:39 PM
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Last edited by Travis Stone : 04-28-2010 at 03:37 PM.
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#37
04-28-2010, 02:55 PM
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Interesting cover all play... I looked at the number quickly and the average exacta from last 10 years is $1547. Once you throw out the $9800 2005 result the average payout is $628 or roughly 82% of your $2 exacta box to cover 20x19 ($760). Historically you can expect to lose ~ 18% on the bet which is about inline with exotic takeouts.
I guess the strategy is you're hoping for a 50-1 to hit the top 2. If so, you might as well just take the 4 horses that are ML 50-1+ and box each one individually with All others. Each key bx would be $76 so in total you would be out $304. This play would of hit the exacta in both 2005 and 2009. You should expect to either lose all $300 or win $2k+. [quote=tanner12oz;640901] Quote:
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#38
04-28-2010, 03:10 PM
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Outstanding
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"Have the clean racing people run any ads explaining that giving a horse a Starbucks and a chocolate poppyseed muffin for breakfast would likely result in a ten year suspension for the trainer?" - Dr. Andrew Roberts
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#39
04-28-2010, 03:11 PM
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"Average payout"--I don't know that the mean is the figure you want. I think the median would be more illustrative. It is $364.30.
I think you have to actively dislike two or three of the top picks to make this work at all. And until you know the projected "chalk" exactas, you are kind of in the dark. All of the "low" exactas in the past decade involved at least one chalk horse.
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#40
04-28-2010, 03:23 PM
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tector,
agreed... think the point I was trying to make was without the '05 or '09 results which had 50-1 bomber the payout it much much less... those results skew the average. if you believe the two favs finish outside the top 2 the all w/all should be profitable. I just don't have the bankroll to try it. 
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