Analyzing The Preakness

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Uncle Daddy

C.L.,
Thanks for your breakdown & analysis.

Question: If Orb is a one grinding one paced style, why not swing him wide for an open run final 1/4 mile or so? Seems like he hated being pinned in and there was no reaction. Rosario maybe put him in the wrong spot and just did not react soon enough? I'm not inclined top crucify the rider but suprising considering he has been up for every mount.

If he had a do-over, I'm sure he would be more patient. The same can be said for Javier on Normandy Invasion in the Derby X2.

The really good horses who come from off the pace would have handled that trip better.

For a genuine all-time great type of off-the-pace horse like Easy Goer, who was running 116 Beyers at age 2 and 126 Beyers at age 3, that trip wouldn't have flattened him out.

If Orb tried to do what Normandy Invasion did in the Derby, he'd have flattened out like a pancake in my opinion. Easy to say now, because he flattened out in the Preakness with a less extreme version of that trip.

Orb will have a good look for redemption in 3 weeks. There's a lot of speed signed on for the Belmont and with Oxbow earning respect, you know the pace will be contested in that race. Orb will be home, and he will get plenty of pace and distance. I expect Rosario to be true to Orb's style in that race.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb will have a good look for redemption in 3 weeks. There's a lot of speed signed on for the Belmont and with Oxbow earning respect, you know the pace will be contested in that race. Orb will be home, and he will get plenty of pace and distance. I expect Rosario to be true to Orb's style in that race.

I like this.

Thanks for sharing your analysis.