Analyzing The Preakness
 

The pace in the Preakness was a +4. Which means it was a pace that you would describe with words like: "fair" "even" "average"

Extreme paced races range from +20 or more (Insanely fast) to -12 or slower (very slow)

The Kentucky Derby (+30) would be an example of the former, and Friday's Pimlico Special (-15) would be an example of the latter.

When the pace is +4, it becomes an irrelevant factor in the analysis of a replay. And, as it turned out, it was an irrelevant factor, the winner did it from on the lead. The 2nd place finisher was in Mid-pack. The 3rd place finisher closed from dead last and was only beaten about 2 lengths.

The decisive moment for Oxbow was when Kevin Krigger avoided a speed duel and allowed him to cross and clear his mount Goldencents. The loose lead was all Oxbow needed.

Itsmyluckyday had a very wide trip on both turns, his sheet figures will look great, but that trip wasn't a big deal. He was second best.

Rosie Naprovnik stayed true to Mylute's running style, and kept him positioned 10.75 lengths back at the first call, and the son of Midnight Lute made his usual spectacular turn move. This horse has always been haunted by his hanging stretch habits. He's a very good underneath horse.

Of the top four, Orb was the only one with a little bit of a trip. Despite some unbelievably ludicrous comparisons (the AP actually printed that he "might be better than Easy Goer and Personal Ensign") Orb has never been much of a figure horse.

In his gold standard performance on a fast track, he won the Florida Derby in a time slower than 3 different Todd Pletcher fillies at the same distance.

Orb has a steady-grinding running style...and Joel Rosario rode him in the Preakness like he was supposed to be the best horse.

With five and a half furlongs still to go, Rosario allowed Orb to split horses and make a little move to get closer to the pace. A longshot sprinter, Titletown Five was under restraint and waiting on Orb, and when Orb came to him, Julian Leperoux pulled the trigger and Orb got outmoved.

Rosario never panicked and went to a big ride, but the early move for position flattened Orb out a little bit...and he "stayed on" to finish 4th.

There was a big debate here after the Kentucky Derby, 'What if Orb had Normandy Invasions trip' ... well, I think the Preakness result did a lot to answer that debate.

Orb may come from off the pace like Easy Goer, but he's no Easy Goer.

If you asked Easy Goer to split horses with 5.5 furlongs out, and a sprinter like Titletown Five is there waiting on him, he'd have not only held level position, but he'd have accelerated past him in dazzling fashion and the early move wouldn't have flattened him out.

Circumstances allowed the chinks in his armor to finally be exposed, but Orb is obviously better than his 4th beaten 9 lengths result yesterday will suggest.

Still, had Rosario been more patient, I'm not sure it would have mattered enough. The result quite possibly could have been just a more competitive 4th place finish.

However, he rode him like he was on a 3/5 favorite. Javier's ride in the Derby was far more questionable, especially consider the +30 pace and Normandy Invasions running style!

Rosario's Preakness ride was like going for the pin instead of playing it safe and laying up. A lot of 3/5 favorites with his running style get away with similar moves everyday, at all class levels, just because they're clearly better than their opposition. That wasn't the case yesterday.

Nice write up Doug, thanks....

I loved reading this. The above is what I was trying to articulate to someone after the race yesterday but the words were coming out all wrong.

I thought Joel gave a nice ride. Orb just couldn't do it yesterday. Lost every cent every which way but oh I do still love this horse.

Thanks for your insight.

How many times in the past 30 years have the fractions been slower? These were the slowest fractions I can ever remember. Oxbow ran the half in :48 3/5. Let's look at the fractions over the last several years in the Preakness. Last year they went :47 3/5. The year before that :46 2/5, the year before that :46 4/5, the year before that :46 2/5, etc.

That being said, I still think the best horse won.

This was actually the slowest final time in the Preakness in 50 years. However that could be somewhat misleading because the track was on the slow side yesterday.

When the surface of the track is very slow, the raw fractions will also be very slow.

Cheap claimers can run 21 and change at Turf Paradise because the surface is lightning fast.

Whenever you see a turf course get yielding, good horses can go 25 and change and 51 and change and easily get caught.

Like I said, the pace was a +4. That means the pace figure was 4 points faster than the final time figure.

All that is true but the track wasn't all that slow yesterday. If you look at all the times and all the fractions yesterday at Pimlico and compare them to all the times and all the fractions of past Preakness days, the track yesterday was hardly slower than normal. You had that one route race yesterday where they went the half in :51, but there is no reason to think that was anything other than an aberration. Look at all the other route races yesterday. Look at all the sprint fractions yesterday compared to the sprint fractions last year on Preakness day at Pimlico. They were faster yesterday. If the track was so slow yesterday then why were the sprint fractions so fast and why were the final times of those sprint races faster than last year?

The Preakness fractions were ridiculously slow yesterday. If you ran those same horses there 20 times under those exact conditions, that is the slowest half you would ever see. The average half (under those exact track conditions would be somewhere around :47 2/5. That would be the average. If everyone gunned, they might go :46 2/5 or :46 3/5. If they let someone crawl alone on the lead (like yesterday), they would go :48 3/5. That would probably happen 1 time out of 20.

Beyer obviously thinks the track was very slow yesterday. He gave Oxbow a 106. I think that number is way too high but we all have different opinions.

A Beyer figure is a final time figure.

The spread between the pace figure and final time figure is computerized. Algorithms.

On a 100 point scale, the pace figure for the Preakness is 4 points faster than the final time figure.

It doesn't matter if you think the race should get a 106 Beyer or a 96 Beyer...the pace figure will be a little faster than the final time.

If you want to see what an actual slow pace going 9.5 furlongs at Pimlico looks like, here's a chart of Friday's Pimlico Special:

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...20130517&RN=12

This race was a -15. The very good Eighttofasttocatch went 49.91 for a half mile.

I know Richards Kid is not what he used to be but he keeps finding paceless races, if he can catch a pace he could win at a big number.

I understand that. My point about the Beyer figure was simply that the final time was so slow (the slowest final Preakness time in 50 year), that you would expect the Beyer to be really slow, unless Beyer felt that the track was really slow, which he obviously did.

Pimlico is obviously a much slower track than many other tracks. There is no debate about that. A horse like Zee Bros runs 1:08 and change at Santa Anita. At Pimlico, he doesn't break 1:10. We know that Pimlico is a slow track. I'm not comparing Pimlico to other tracks. I'm comparing the Preakness this year to other years. We know the track was slower yesterday than some past years but how much slower? Was the track slower than last year? Maybe, but if it was I don't think it was by much, maybe a couple of ticks. I think the pace was slow yesterday, but I think the best horse still won. If Goldencents would have gunned out there in :47 3/5, I think Stevens would have stalked (3-5 lengths back) and I think Oxbow still wins.

A database that takes years and years of Pimlico races into account VS someone in California who pays attention to Pimlico maybe one weekend a year.

Enjoy betting Mylute in the future, since he closed from dead last, 10+ lengths back, to run third beaten about two lengths against that slow pace.

I had quite the romance with Mylute earlier in the year, he will give you a thrill on the turn and break your heart inside the 1/16th pole if you bet on him.

I'm just comparing the race and the day to past Preaknesses and past Preakness days. This was the slowest Preakness in 50 years. And it was one of the slowest paces in 50 years. That's not debatable. The only thing that is debatable is how much slower the track was yesterday compared to past Preakness days. If the track was in fact much slower yesterday than every other year, then maybe the pace and the final time were much better than they appeared.

With regard to Mylute, I'm not a fan. I wasn't impressed with his Derby race and I wasn't impressed with his Preakness race.

The pace in last years Preakness was a +2.

I know you're a very smart man, but I think I'll stick with the database.

Lets change the subject. What are your thoughts on gardening? How about 14th century poetry?

Doug, can't wait to see your pace numbers for Zee Bros. His half of 45.16 was 2 lengths faster than the Maryland Sprint for older horses. This is with a 5ft run up at the 6f distance. Problem for Zee Bros is that i believe he may be heading right into Let Em Shine at Belmont. That could get nasty!

Beyer thought the pace was slow. I will quote him from today's article: "Oxbow was able to set such an easy pace, covering the first six furlongs in 1 minute 13.26 seconds".

Let Em Shine is like the Precious Passion of sprinters!

CJ does Pimlico. I will find out. He only E-mailed me the Preakness fig yesterday.

I would only agree with what he wrote if "easy" meant uncontested.

If he meant "easy" to mean slow, I would disagree.

An uncontested lead is dangerous on dirt, but the pace should correctly be classified as "even" "fair" or "average"

Zee Bros was coming off 102-80 and only faded late at a mile, I thought he was going to be pretty tough and a will be a pretty legit sprinter for the rest of the year.

C.L.,
Thanks for your breakdown & analysis.

Question: If Orb is a one grinding one paced style, why not swing him wide for an open run final 1/4 mile or so? Seems like he hated being pinned in and there was no reaction. Rosario maybe put him in the wrong spot and just did not react soon enough? I'm not inclined top crucify the rider but suprising considering he has been up for every mount.

If he had a do-over, I'm sure he would be more patient. The same can be said for Javier on Normandy Invasion in the Derby X2.

The really good horses who come from off the pace would have handled that trip better.

For a genuine all-time great type of off-the-pace horse like Easy Goer, who was running 116 Beyers at age 2 and 126 Beyers at age 3, that trip wouldn't have flattened him out.

If Orb tried to do what Normandy Invasion did in the Derby, he'd have flattened out like a pancake in my opinion. Easy to say now, because he flattened out in the Preakness with a less extreme version of that trip.

Orb will have a good look for redemption in 3 weeks. There's a lot of speed signed on for the Belmont and with Oxbow earning respect, you know the pace will be contested in that race. Orb will be home, and he will get plenty of pace and distance. I expect Rosario to be true to Orb's style in that race.

Except for the FOY and FD where JV rode him.