Oxbow

NTamm1215 · #1 05-19-2013, 08:32 AM

The Dixie and Preakness are great examples of how much more fun racing would be if riders were as competitive as they were in eras that are clearly gone.

Stevens is back with a refreshing, "old school" approach that will enable him to capitalize when the early lead in a route race is uncontested. He has wired four Grade I or Grade II stakes races since February using these tactics.

The fact that Goldencents was rated off a pace like that of the Preakness is absolute lunacy. I'm not saying this as sour grapes for Orb or any other horse losing, it just speaks to the stupidity that occurs when jockeys do not ride competitive races. It's no longer just a problem in racing at all levels, it's an epidemic.

I'm thrilled for Gary Stevens and D. Wayne Lukas. DrugS, as always, did a phenomenal job highlighting reasons why Oxbow was a good bet in this race. Congrats to those who cashed.

Thunder Gulch · #2 05-19-2013, 08:54 AM

Some brilliant work here guys. Without the Oxbow pace analysis after the Derby, I would likely have missed Oxbow and been sitting there with the 2-3-4 horses cold and nothing to show for it. Thanks for the insight and education.

ateamstupid · #3 05-19-2013, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The Dixie and Preakness are great examples of how much more fun racing would be if riders were as competitive as they were in eras that are clearly gone.

Stevens is back with a refreshing, "old school" approach that will enable him to capitalize when the early lead in a route race is uncontested. He has wired four Grade I or Grade II stakes races since February using these tactics.

The fact that Goldencents was rated off a pace like that of the Preakness is absolute lunacy. I'm not saying this as sour grapes for Orb or any other horse losing, it just speaks to the stupidity that occurs when jockeys do not ride competitive races. It's no longer just a problem in racing at all levels, it's an epidemic.

I'm thrilled for Gary Stevens and D. Wayne Lukas. DrugS, as always, did a phenomenal job highlighting reasons why Oxbow was a good bet in this race. Congrats to those who cashed.

It speaks to the quality of the American jockey colony that the Derby can have such a supersonic pace that fries anything close to it and two weeks later a horse can totally walk on the lead to win the Preakness. Obviously the difference in field size is a factor, but 90% of them have no idea what they're doing from a pace standpoint.

asudevil · #4 05-19-2013, 10:24 AM

Calzone...please free up some space on your message box.

Travis Stone · #5 05-19-2013, 11:59 AM

Some rough math this AM indicates that Orb was more like 9-5 (probably one or two clicks lower) in the exotics, but definitely not 3-5 like he was in the win pool.

As for the jockeys... this is a serious problem in American racing. It's getting worse by the minute. At LAD where, granted, we don't have a bunch of future Hall of Famers, we had a rider yank a horse off the pace that was ultimately posted over 25 seconds for the quarter despite a good rail/speed bias.

Gary Stevens saw an opportunity yesterday and that was it. There's a reason why he won so many races, and he's still winning them now upon his return.

Dunbar · #6 05-19-2013, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Some rough math this AM indicates that Orb was more like 9-5 (probably one or two clicks lower) in the exotics, but definitely not 3-5 like he was in the win pool.

Do you (or does anyone else) have the exacta will-pays with Orb in first position?

--Dunbar

Port Conway Lane · #7 05-19-2013, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Do you (or does anyone else) have the exacta will-pays with Orb in first position?

--Dunbar

Only from memory
Oxbow $19 for a $1
don't know about TT five...I'd guess at least $40
The rest were between $12 and $16.

Dunbar · #8 05-22-2013, 01:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Some rough math this AM indicates that Orb was more like 9-5 (probably one or two clicks lower) in the exotics, but definitely not 3-5 like he was in the win pool.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Only from memory
Oxbow $19 for a $1
don't know about TT five...I'd guess at least $40
The rest were between $12 and $16.

Using $19 for Oxbow's $1 exacta pay, $50 for TT5, and $15 for the rest of the field, Orb was at 1.1 to 1 win odds in the exacta pool. If I use $13 instead of $15 for all the other horses (besides Oxbow and TT5), I get Orb at 0.9 to 1 win odds from the exacta pool. So pretty close to even money, if PCL's memory is accurate. Substantially higher than Orb's win pool odds.

--Dunbar

cmorioles · #9 05-19-2013, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

As for the jockeys... this is a serious problem in American racing. It's getting worse by the minute. At LAD where, granted, we don't have a bunch of future Hall of Famers, we had a rider yank a horse off the pace that was ultimately posted over 25 seconds for the quarter despite a good rail/speed bias.

Well said. It seems like most ride races like they are on synthetic surfaces, whether they are or not.

Travis Stone · #10 05-19-2013, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

As for the jockeys... this is a serious problem in American racing. It's getting worse by the minute. At LAD where, granted, we don't have a bunch of future Hall of Famers, we had a rider yank a horse off the pace that was ultimately posted over 25 seconds for the quarter despite a good rail/speed bias.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Well said. It seems like most ride races like they are on synthetic surfaces, whether they are or not.

The horse I was talking about just ran back today (Race 5, #5 Club). Last time out, third-off the layoff w/improved figure in last (my favorite angle), he broke on top and had a 1-1/2 length lead at the first call but was pulled back to fourth. The fractions were 26-flat and 52 4/5. He finished 3rd after swimming in the stretch of the inside/speedy track.

Today the same rider put him on the lead with two other horses and he held for second at 19-1. The winner was the second place finisher from his last out. Now, the splits today were 25-1/5 and 49-1/5... the only mistake was not stepping on it a bit and taking a clear lead. The track is rather speed friendly, he probably would have won.

10 pnt move up · #11 05-19-2013, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Well said. It seems like most ride races like they are on synthetic surfaces, whether they are or not.

I wonder what Oneills opinion was of Kriggers ride in the Preakness, there was a split second decision to be made and he could have been on the lead, Stevens was not going to fight him for it, have to think his big race inexperience cost him a chance to at least give the race a go.

outofthebox · #12 05-19-2013, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I wonder what Oneills opinion was of Kriggers ride in the Preakness, there was a split second decision to be made and he could have been on the lead, Stevens was not going to fight him for it, have to think his big race inexperience cost him a chance to at least give the race a go.

Not sure about Oneill, but i was thrilled where he placed him. Looked like a replica of the Santa Anita Derby ride. They have changed his training regimen back in forth for the past two months and it looks like it has taken it's toll on him.