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#41
05-18-2013, 09:26 PM
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Excellent posting, CL. And your bringing up your Derby un-call on Orb was pretty darn humble and classy, too.
--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson 
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#42
05-18-2013, 09:49 PM
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My hubby played two hundred dollars to win on Oxbow and had a five dollar trifecta! Woohoooo!! We dined like royalty tonight thanks to to Coach Darryl Wayne Lukas!!
What a day!!!! Never ever count out the old veterans of the racing wars, Lukas will be winning important races until the day he calls it quits.
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#45
05-18-2013, 11:02 PM
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#46
05-18-2013, 11:09 PM
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If I remember correctly, the yr looking at looking at lucky won it was higher and I think it had the same number of horses. It didn't have a 3/5 ml fav but I think that would be an advantage. Just thought that was a yr comparable, just seemed a little strange to me.
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#47
05-18-2013, 11:32 PM
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The pick 4 also was a bit light. It actually came in UNDER the parlay, which almost never happens with sufficient pool size (and I'd call $2.1 million sufficient!) The only thing I can come up with is Skyring played closer to the 12-1 ML than the 24-1 post time odds. Then everything falls into place much better.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#49
05-19-2013, 01:29 AM
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Excellent work, Doug. Hope you won a lot of jingle on the race.
__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#50
05-19-2013, 06:09 AM
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Great job Doug.. When the 1:13.1 went up, I thought to myself 'they're never going to get to him now'.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#51
05-19-2013, 08:11 AM
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#52
05-19-2013, 08:32 AM
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The Dixie and Preakness are great examples of how much more fun racing would be if riders were as competitive as they were in eras that are clearly gone.
Stevens is back with a refreshing, "old school" approach that will enable him to capitalize when the early lead in a route race is uncontested. He has wired four Grade I or Grade II stakes races since February using these tactics. The fact that Goldencents was rated off a pace like that of the Preakness is absolute lunacy. I'm not saying this as sour grapes for Orb or any other horse losing, it just speaks to the stupidity that occurs when jockeys do not ride competitive races. It's no longer just a problem in racing at all levels, it's an epidemic. I'm thrilled for Gary Stevens and D. Wayne Lukas. DrugS, as always, did a phenomenal job highlighting reasons why Oxbow was a good bet in this race. Congrats to those who cashed.
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#53
05-19-2013, 08:54 AM
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Some brilliant work here guys. Without the Oxbow pace analysis after the Derby, I would likely have missed Oxbow and been sitting there with the 2-3-4 horses cold and nothing to show for it. Thanks for the insight and education.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#56
05-19-2013, 10:17 AM
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#59
05-19-2013, 11:59 AM
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Some rough math this AM indicates that Orb was more like 9-5 (probably one or two clicks lower) in the exotics, but definitely not 3-5 like he was in the win pool.
As for the jockeys... this is a serious problem in American racing. It's getting worse by the minute. At LAD where, granted, we don't have a bunch of future Hall of Famers, we had a rider yank a horse off the pace that was ultimately posted over 25 seconds for the quarter despite a good rail/speed bias. Gary Stevens saw an opportunity yesterday and that was it. There's a reason why he won so many races, and he's still winning them now upon his return.
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#60
05-19-2013, 01:27 PM
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--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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