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#1
03-30-2013, 05:33 PM
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Orb got the job done in the Florida Derby. Shanghai Bobby simply couldn't rate and was very rank.
Normally, you'd say it was a comically terrible ride...but this was a final prep race, so the tactical buffoonery was expected and can be excused. Derby winners are usually one-time speed horses who thrive when attempting rating tactics. I've not been a fan of Orb at all, but he is a better horse than I had thought. Still, his final time was 11 lengths slower than Dreaming Of Julia freakish win at the same distance earlier today. Do you really want a horse in the Kentucky Derby who just ran 11 lengths slower than a filly? I don't. At least not for 1st or 2nd. He has the right style to run 3rd or 4th if he gets pace. 
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#2
03-30-2013, 06:23 PM
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#3
03-30-2013, 06:32 PM
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There doesn't appear to be any reason to split it... Dreaming of Julia will get a figure about 17 points faster than Orb. However, we both know she's not a likely candidate to repeat it as she leaves Pletcher's Playground and ships to a place he struggled at last year, Churchill Downs.
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#4
03-30-2013, 07:13 PM
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#5
03-30-2013, 09:23 PM
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--Dunbar
__________________
Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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#6
03-30-2013, 09:27 PM
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It's possible that those figs might be a touch on the high side...but I was horrendously wrong about Orb. If he ran a 97 today, he did it without much setup. His 97 last time out was with the setup of a lifetime and I think he was in light at 116lbs as well. He got absolutely no such help today...and if you believe he repeated that figure, Orb really took a monster step up today imo. The two speeds, Merit Man from post 9 (29/1 and should have been 290/1) and Narveaz from extreme outside post 10 (103/1 and should been 1,003/1) -- they hung around to finish 3rd and 4th. Had Shangei Bobby not been strangled into submission and so rank, those 3rd and 4th place finishers would have been toast. The real disappointment was It'smyluckyday... that was as big a clunker as when he laid an egg at Delta Downs in the Delta Jackpot with no apparent excuse. Still, even though Orb had no help at all today, his believers needed a faster time. In 2008: Big Brown won the FLA Derby from the 12-hole in 1:48.16 -- She's All Eltish took the Oaks by 7 lengths one race earlier in 1:51.80 On that day, the Derby went 3.64 seconds faster, on this day, the Oaks went 1.90 seconds faster. The real news this day was the Rachel Alexandra like performance of Dreaming of Julia at Pletcher's Playground. She had the speed of Dream Rush, and the staying power of A. P. Indy on this day.
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#8
03-31-2013, 12:29 PM
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Beautiful run by Orb!
Mike Welsch@DRFWelsch23h Trainer Ian Wilkes reports that Capt. Candyman Can, who gave him his 1st G1 win, will be retired but will return as a stable pony.
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