3/30 (GP): FL Derby (G1), GP Oaks (G2), 5 undercard stakes

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Conrad

Cue The Moon is my girl in the GP Oaks
4-1 ML

What race has she run that makes her competitive?

She will be, and should be, a LOT higher than 4:1.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What race has she run that makes her competitive?

She will be, and should be, a LOT higher than 4:1.

Well, she did beat Emollient with a trip first out and she did come close to beating My Happy Face, who was beaten a head by Dreaming of Julia.

Obviously her 2-year-old form isn't going to win this, but doesn't she have every right to step forward a ton at three just like these other fillies have?

She always struck me as a horse who needed some time come into her own and obviously she's gotten that.

I hope you're right about her being a lot higher than 4-1. Winning first off the bench at 9f against this decent field will be no easy task, but if I can get 6-1+ on her jumping up, I'm taking it.

[Revidere]

Always glad to see Capt. Candyman Can run. Hope he runs better than his last.

[Calzone Lord]

I don't like Orb at all in the Florida Derby. No knock on the other two favorites.

Well, no knock on them until the Kentucky Derby anyway.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Well, she did beat Emollient with a trip first out and she did come close to beating My Happy Face, who was beaten a head by Dreaming of Julia.

Forgetting about today's result.....watch her debut. Emollient ran much better than she did that day. Only early trouble and a horrendous ride kept her from winning.

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What race has she run that makes her competitive?

She will be, and should be, a LOT higher than 4:1.

She battled 3 wide in the Temtped thru very fast splits but couldn't get by a determined winner while 6 clear of the show horse. Yes, it was only a 4 horse field, but it was also her 2nd lifetime start and i say she performed very well.
I know - that was way back in Nov - but her barn is having a nice lil meet & can win off the bench.
What really intrigued me is her early pace (she can sit all over Live Lively) and her worktab, which seems like it's directed towards her getting a distance of ground. Two easy 6f works, a 1m work and a nice 5f bullet on Mar 23. I think Rosie will opt to stalk.
Clearly, a prep race woulda been nice. She's not the soundest gal around with two layoff lines in two lifetime starts, but she's a brawler (see her chart comments).
Faces two classy gals in LL and DOJ, both of whom can move forward 2nd off the shelf.
Still, she gets in light at 116lbs, has very good speed, and can be involved for a long way at hopefully 6-1 or better.

[Calzone Lord]

Pletcher horses who are making their 2nd start today since the Gulfstream Park meet started:

Gulfstream Race #2: Travelin Man (1st by 4 lengths at 2/1)

Gulfstream Race #8: Dreaming of Julia (1st by 21.75 lengths at 8/5)

Fair Grounds Race #7: Unlimited Budget (1st, beat Flashy Grey by 1.75 lengths)

3-for-3 and winning by a combined 27.5 lengths.


Yeah ... I'm not betting against Shanghai Bobby today. He's 5/2 with 5 minutes to post right now. I'm surprised he isn't getting pounded.

[Calzone Lord]

Orb got the job done in the Florida Derby. Shanghai Bobby simply couldn't rate and was very rank.

Normally, you'd say it was a comically terrible ride...but this was a final prep race, so the tactical buffoonery was expected and can be excused. Derby winners are usually one-time speed horses who thrive when attempting rating tactics.

I've not been a fan of Orb at all, but he is a better horse than I had thought.

Still, his final time was 11 lengths slower than Dreaming Of Julia freakish win at the same distance earlier today.

Do you really want a horse in the Kentucky Derby who just ran 11 lengths slower than a filly? I don't. At least not for 1st or 2nd. He has the right style to run 3rd or 4th if he gets pace.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Orb got the job done in the Florida Derby. Shanghai Bobby simply couldn't rate and was very rank.

Normally, you'd say it was a comically terrible ride...but this was a final prep race, so the tactical buffoonery was expected and can be excused. Derby winners are usually one-time speed horses who thrive when attempting rating tactics.

I've not been a fan of Orb at all, but he is a better horse than I had thought.

Still, his final time was 11 lengths slower than Dreaming Of Julia freakish win at the same distance earlier today.

Do you really want a horse in the Kentucky Derby who just ran 11 lengths slower than a filly? I don't. At least not for 1st or 2nd. He has the right style to run 3rd or 4th if he gets pace.

The BSF will be closer then the raw data would suggest

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by freddymo

The BSF will be closer then the raw data would suggest

No it won't, Freddy.

There doesn't appear to be any reason to split it...

Dreaming of Julia will get a figure about 17 points faster than Orb.

However, we both know she's not a likely candidate to repeat it as she leaves Pletcher's Playground and ships to a place he struggled at last year, Churchill Downs.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

No it won't, Freddy.

There doesn't appear to be any reason to split it...

Dreaming of Julia will get a figure about 17 points faster than Orb.

However, we both know she's not a likely candidate to repeat it as she leaves Pletcher's Playground and ships to a place he struggled at last year, Churchill Downs.

I would think when they get thru doing the math and mad science the fig for Orb will be 9 to 11 pts lower then the Pletcherized Filly.. You think the Orb race is a 97 and 114 for the filly? No chance