Pace Trips and Pace Traps from across the country

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Here's a three day span of extreme pace races from around the country to watch ... if anyone wants to practice trying it themselves.

From left to right:

Track, date, race number, pace figure, final figure, race shape figure

Doug,
Is there any consistant relationship between your pace figures and the moss pace figures?

For example SA March 17th race 9. You have a 92 pace and 63 final +29 race shape.

Moss Race Shape: 89+10 84+4 83+2 81

The Moss +10 alerts me to the very fast early pace but the final figure of 81 is only an 8 point differential.

I'd like to be able to spot extreme cases using the Moss numbers if possible.

I play SA almost exclusively so I've inserted the three races you listed into the trip notes in formulator. As a side note two horses of interest coming back from that race Captain Corrigan and Cut to the Front were gelded after their previous start.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Doug,
Is there any consistant relationship between your pace figures and the moss pace figures?

For example SA March 17th race 9. You have a 92 pace and 63 final +29 race shape.

Moss Race Shape: 89+10 84+4 83+2 81

The figures I posted above are the first call and final of the CJ's. They are a completely independent figure from the DRF's figures.

The Moss figures are made based on a compressed Beyer Scale. They are not two independent figures, they are tied together.

A Moss figure of 89 equals a Beyer figure in the range of 89 to 91.

A Moss figure of 81 equals a Beyer figure of 67 to 69.

In other words, on the extreme low side of their scale:

56 Moss = 0 Beyer
57 Moss = 3 Beyer
58 Moss = 5 Beyer
59 Moss = 8 Beyer
60 Moss = 11 Beyer
61 Moss = 14 Beyer
62 Moss = 16 Beyer
63 Moss = 19 Beyer


The extreme high side:

95 Moss = 106 Beyer
96 Moss = 109 Beyer
97 Moss = 112 Beyer
98 Moss = 115 Beyer
99 Moss = 117 Beyer
100 Moss = 120 Beyer
101 Moss = 123 Beyer
102 Moss = 125 Beyer

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The figures I posted above are the first call and final of the CJ's. They are a completely independent figure from the DRF's figures.

Interesting that you'd use 1st call vs 2nd call as your pace interval. I’d have thought the 2nd call would provide more value? Guess one would also need to adjust the range if using the 2nd call.

I think it might be interesting to consider “track weight/variant” when evaluating the strength of any performance. This goes hand-in-hand with track biases that you described in your opening post.

Big difference running +20 pace number on a track that’s 3 lengths slow vs 3 lengths fast. Also a different significance using 1st call vs 2nd call I imagine.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The figures I posted above are the first call and final of the CJ's. They are a completely independent figure from the DRF's figures.

The Moss figures are made based on a compressed Beyer Scale. They are not two independent figures, they are tied together.

A Moss figure of 89 equals a Beyer figure in the range of 89 to 91.

A Moss figure of 81 equals a Beyer figure of 67 to 69.

In other words, on the extreme low side of their scale:

56 Moss = 0 Beyer
57 Moss = 3 Beyer
58 Moss = 5 Beyer
59 Moss = 8 Beyer
60 Moss = 11 Beyer
61 Moss = 14 Beyer
62 Moss = 16 Beyer
63 Moss = 19 Beyer


The extreme high side:

95 Moss = 106 Beyer
96 Moss = 109 Beyer
97 Moss = 112 Beyer
98 Moss = 115 Beyer
99 Moss = 117 Beyer
100 Moss = 120 Beyer
101 Moss = 123 Beyer
102 Moss = 125 Beyer

Thank you. That helps give me better idea of what I'm viewing. Meanwhile I'll focus on the races you post at SA.

[newsbuster]

Excited to follow this thread. Great idea!

[robfla]

Originally Posted by newsbuster

Excited to follow this thread. Great idea!

dont hold your breath. It's been over 2 years since the last post

[Alabama Stakes]

He made a funny ��