Pace Trips and Pace Traps from across the country

Calzone Lord · #1 02-19-2013, 06:44 AM

I am going to do this over here. I've been annoyingly busy lately, but I'm now in the late stages of buying a house with my gf.

In a way, this is similar to the outstanding NYRA show trips and traps ... except, the whole process is centered around finding troubled trips by horses who were also badly hindered by pace dynamics. In other words, compounding trouble with more trouble.

Each week, I will post a bunch of horses to follow next time they run... you can follow them if you'd like. Post about them when they return, or whatever.

Here is all I ask for people who want to contribute and help me, anytime you see what you think is a track bias, please post the day, track, and type of bias you think occurred in this thread here. Any opinion why you think it was a bias is also appreciated.

This method works on steroids when you have some legit track biases to go along with it. I love a horse who gets caught up in a breakaway duel with a talented rival (for the class level), earns a dazzling pace figure, and stays on surprisingly well while getting drubbed. But, when such a horse manages to do that while also racing on a dead-rail ... you're going to beat the hell out of this game if you can find a lot of horses like that. Or the vice versa closer type that is wide, troubled, and against an extreme slow pace on a gold rail track.

Which races will I watch? Only the races with paces of -12 or slower or +20 or faster.

I'm not afraid of any track. I know the strengths and weaknesses of trainers extremely well at every track in the country. I have a good enough understanding of the profiles of these tracks. However, I will post about horses from only the highest profile tracks.

It defeats the purpose to post about horses running at Sam Houston and Sunland. No Youtube videos either. I simply don't have the time for it.

Calzone Lord · #2 02-19-2013, 07:52 AM

I will start posting them tomorrow morning.

Here is an excellent demonstration because this race (The 2012 Stephen Foster) was only a +19 (104 pace, 85 final) ... thus it missed the cutoff to be a watchable race by 1 point.

Fort Larned:

As CJ's pace figures demonstrate ... Fort Larned ran a career top pace figure of 102 in the Foster. Uncomfortably fast, not only for him, but for any thoroughbred really.

More importantly, Fort Larned ran that 102 despite suffering a brutal trip through that stage of the race.

Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wherHDmjKZI

Fort Larned is in post #2. He gets jammed and bumps repeatedly with Wise Dan. At 12 seconds in, he has to check to avoid heels. He's forced into an inside-tracking position with Wise Dan breathing down his neck the entire opening half mile.

Obviously, the race wasn't quite a +20, but that's what we are looking for. We are looking for a horse who is badly disadvantaged by pace, which gets compounded by trouble, and ideally also pressure from a quality horse (which Wise Dan obviously is)

We don't want a horse like Nate's Mineshaft. Yes, he's running very fast, but he's getting his trip (loose lead with no pressure) ... and even if you wrongly were looking at Nate's Mineshaft, he has never ran back out of that race. That was his last race.

Wise Dan also had a poor break and was bumped around and roughed up. It was a "better than looked" race from him as well.

Genuine trouble while up close to a +19 certainly hurts even top class horses like Breeders Cup Classic winner Fort Larned and Horse of the Year Wise Dan. Notice the weak figs they ran.

However, the same kind of trouble while up close to a +30 is going to have a far more negative effect on any horse at any level. And the mission is to find those horses, wherever they might be.

This is the last example I'm doing of horses who have already run back.

pweizer · #3 02-19-2013, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I am going to do this over here. I've been annoyingly busy lately, but I'm now in the late stages of buying a house with my gf.

In a way, this is similar to the outstanding NYRA show trips and traps ... except, the whole process is centered around finding troubled trips by horses who were also badly hindered by pace dynamics. In other words, compounding trouble with more trouble.

Each week, I will post a bunch of horses to follow next time they run... you can follow them if you'd like. Post about them when they return, or whatever.

Here is all I ask for people who want to contribute and help me, anytime you see what you think is a track bias, please post the day, track, and type of bias you think occurred in this thread here. Any opinion why you think it was a bias is also appreciated.

This method works on steroids when you have some legit track biases to go along with it. I love a horse who gets caught up in a breakaway duel with a talented rival (for the class level), earns a dazzling pace figure, and stays on surprisingly well while getting drubbed. But, when such a horse manages to do that while also racing on a dead-rail ... you're going to beat the hell out of this game if you can find a lot of horses like that. Or the vice versa closer type that is wide, troubled, and against an extreme slow pace on a gold rail track.

Which races will I watch? Only the races with paces of -12 or slower or +20 or faster.

I'm not afraid of any track. I know the strengths and weaknesses of trainers extremely well at every track in the country. I have a good enough understanding of the profiles of these tracks. However, I will post about horses from only the highest profile tracks.

It defeats the purpose to post about horses running at Sam Houston and Sunland. No Youtube videos either. I simply don't have the time for it.

Thanks for doing this. It will be an excellent learning experience for me to watch you at work.

Paul

tabs · #4 03-03-2013, 05:49 PM

Hey Doug,

I do something similar! Interesting thread I'll follow along

Calzone Lord · #5 03-26-2013, 02:58 PM

Here's a three day span of extreme pace races from around the country to watch ... if anyone wants to practice trying it themselves.

From left to right:

Track, date, race number, pace figure, final figure, race shape figure

Port Conway Lane · #6 03-29-2013, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Here's a three day span of extreme pace races from around the country to watch ... if anyone wants to practice trying it themselves.

From left to right:

Track, date, race number, pace figure, final figure, race shape figure

Doug,
Is there any consistant relationship between your pace figures and the moss pace figures?

For example SA March 17th race 9. You have a 92 pace and 63 final +29 race shape.

Moss Race Shape: 89+10 84+4 83+2 81

The Moss +10 alerts me to the very fast early pace but the final figure of 81 is only an 8 point differential.

I'd like to be able to spot extreme cases using the Moss numbers if possible.

I play SA almost exclusively so I've inserted the three races you listed into the trip notes in formulator. As a side note two horses of interest coming back from that race Captain Corrigan and Cut to the Front were gelded after their previous start.

Calzone Lord · #7 03-29-2013, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Doug,
Is there any consistant relationship between your pace figures and the moss pace figures?

For example SA March 17th race 9. You have a 92 pace and 63 final +29 race shape.

Moss Race Shape: 89+10 84+4 83+2 81

The figures I posted above are the first call and final of the CJ's. They are a completely independent figure from the DRF's figures.

The Moss figures are made based on a compressed Beyer Scale. They are not two independent figures, they are tied together.

A Moss figure of 89 equals a Beyer figure in the range of 89 to 91.

A Moss figure of 81 equals a Beyer figure of 67 to 69.

In other words, on the extreme low side of their scale:

56 Moss = 0 Beyer
57 Moss = 3 Beyer
58 Moss = 5 Beyer
59 Moss = 8 Beyer
60 Moss = 11 Beyer
61 Moss = 14 Beyer
62 Moss = 16 Beyer
63 Moss = 19 Beyer

The extreme high side:

95 Moss = 106 Beyer
96 Moss = 109 Beyer
97 Moss = 112 Beyer
98 Moss = 115 Beyer
99 Moss = 117 Beyer
100 Moss = 120 Beyer
101 Moss = 123 Beyer
102 Moss = 125 Beyer

tabs · #8 03-29-2013, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The figures I posted above are the first call and final of the CJ's. They are a completely independent figure from the DRF's figures.

Interesting that you'd use 1st call vs 2nd call as your pace interval. I’d have thought the 2nd call would provide more value? Guess one would also need to adjust the range if using the 2nd call.

I think it might be interesting to consider “track weight/variant” when evaluating the strength of any performance. This goes hand-in-hand with track biases that you described in your opening post.

Big difference running +20 pace number on a track that’s 3 lengths slow vs 3 lengths fast. Also a different significance using 1st call vs 2nd call I imagine.

Port Conway Lane · #9 03-29-2013, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The figures I posted above are the first call and final of the CJ's. They are a completely independent figure from the DRF's figures.

The Moss figures are made based on a compressed Beyer Scale. They are not two independent figures, they are tied together.

A Moss figure of 89 equals a Beyer figure in the range of 89 to 91.

A Moss figure of 81 equals a Beyer figure of 67 to 69.

In other words, on the extreme low side of their scale:

56 Moss = 0 Beyer
57 Moss = 3 Beyer
58 Moss = 5 Beyer
59 Moss = 8 Beyer
60 Moss = 11 Beyer
61 Moss = 14 Beyer
62 Moss = 16 Beyer
63 Moss = 19 Beyer

The extreme high side:

95 Moss = 106 Beyer
96 Moss = 109 Beyer
97 Moss = 112 Beyer
98 Moss = 115 Beyer
99 Moss = 117 Beyer
100 Moss = 120 Beyer
101 Moss = 123 Beyer
102 Moss = 125 Beyer

Thank you. That helps give me better idea of what I'm viewing. Meanwhile I'll focus on the races you post at SA.