Is this Beyer wrong?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Scav

Attachment 2085

Attached is BGR's filly Fifth of April, entered on Friday. While looking at the PP's, I can't help but notice how close the times, figures and variants are, yet the Beyers don't correspond.

21.3 / 45.3 / 58.3 / 112.4 74 - 16
21.3 / 46.1 / 58.4 / 112.2 78 - 18

Is the last Beyer wrong, or am I not understanding how numbers are made.

You're way off in how the figures are made.

The DRF speed rating and variant have nothing at all to do with it. They are just put in the form for 80-year-old people who used them as a rule of thumb growing up. They give speed handicapping a horrible name.

As far as Fifth of April's last race ... the winner ran 6 furlongs in 1:12 4/5ths.

Earlier in the card, a $5,000 N3L claiming race went six furlongs in 1:11 flat and later on in the card a different $5,000 N3L claiming race went six furlongs in 1:11 and change.

Regarding the horse who went 1:11 flat ... he came back and finished 7th in a 10K claimer race at Hawthorne ... these are his PP's...



A speed figure can be "wrong" for a few different reasons ... sometimes the race isn't timed correctly or the final time gets typo'd.

Sometimes the track changes speeds because of track maintenance or weather ... stuff like that.

However, the speed rating/variant has nothing at all to do with the Beyer figure and it is without question the most worthless piece of information you will find in the past performances.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

You're way off in how the figures are made.

The DRF speed rating and variant have nothing at all to do with it. They are just put in the form for 80-year-old people who used them as a rule of thumb growing up. They give speed handicapping a horrible name.

As far as Fifth of April's last race ... the winner ran 6 furlongs in 1:12 4/5ths.

Earlier in the card, a $5,000 N3L claiming race went six furlongs in 1:11 flat and later on in the card a different $5,000 N3L claiming race went six furlongs in 1:11 and change.

Regarding the horse who went 1:11 flat ... he came back and finished 7th in a 10K claimer race at Hawthorne ... these are his PP's...



A speed figure can be "wrong" for a few different reasons ... sometimes the race isn't timed correctly or the final time gets typo'd.

Sometimes the track changes speeds because of track maintenance or weather ... stuff like that.

However, the speed rating/variant has nothing at all to do with the Beyer figure and it is without question the most worthless piece of information you will find in the past performances.

This is what I was looking for. Thanks, appreciate it.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Scav

This is what I was looking for. Thanks, appreciate it.

Whatever she does Friday ... I think her best game will be sprinting and on synthetic.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Whatever she does Friday ... I think her best game will be sprinting and on synthetic.

I don't disagree at all. We are really trying the spot cause we are essentially in jail right now because of the EHV-1. She was suppose to be on a farm Nov 15th in NOLA relaxing until mid Jan but because we can't leave, we talked it out after her last disaster and figured what the hell, might as well try it and see what happens.

Her being the ML favorite is laughable IMO cause I thought she would be around 8/1.

[Calzone Lord]

That last race had to be heartbreaking.

All she needed was to show up and she'd win a 100K stake race.

She's obviously a bad ML favorite on Friday. Still, worth running in there I suppose because only one other horse is proven on dirt.

For Christ sakes man, give GB Bob a Xanax or a Valium or something to chill him out.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That last race had to be heartbreaking.

All she needed was to show up and she'd win a 100K stake race.

She's obviously a bad ML favorite on Friday. Still, worth running in there I suppose because only one other horse is proven on dirt.

For Christ sakes man, give GB Bob a Xanax or a Valium or something to chill him out.

Every race you don't win is heartbreaking. Fact is that never did we think we would be in that spot with this horse so her races this year have been a welcome surprise.

Lets just hope we get a chance to run on Friday, cause the weather is about to get crazy here, and while I don't think the track will be an issue, the wind will.

[Calzone Lord]

She didn't show up again and was trounced a long way at 2/1 odds today.

Dehere offspring have those mind-boggling ROI numbers on debut from such a huge sample size ... not necessarily because the offspring are precocious, but because they tend to fool clockers and trainers with how they train. They over-perform initial placement and expectations.

Pull up the past performances on them, and you'll see that pattern jump out at you after you've looked at more than a hundred of them.

Dehere's usually aren't the hardiest of horses...and the mother was ultra game, but not exactly hardy. Pedigree is extremely tilted to sprint VS route... though your trainer does a good job at getting horses to route.

I would say don't even bother with the Fairgrounds. She hasn't shown up twice in a row, she's bred best for poly, and she's an ILLI bred.

Rest her until Arlington, sprint her, and space her races and you'll get the best out of her.