National Presidential Election contest thread

Calzone Lord · #1 10-23-2012, 08:05 PM

There is no way either one can win without winning the state of Ohio.

If the poll numbers right now can be trusted -- the winner of this election will probably be decided by the weather in Cleveland on election day.

Obama defeated McCain by 206,000 votes in Ohio in 2008.

Obama was +246,000 votes over McCain in Cuyahoga County. He was minus 40,000 to McCain in the state of Ohio with Cuyahoga County excluded.

In Ohio's District 11 (East Cleveland) -- Obama won almost 90% of the vote.

If the polls are accurate -- the state of Ohio will be won by the voter turnout in the big population areas around Cleveland.

If the weather is miserable in Cleveland on election day -- Obama will not get a monster turnout there like he did last year. Romney wins.

If the weather is clear in Cleveland on election day -- Obama will defeat Romney in Ohio and win the state and re-election.

Bottom line...if the polls are trusted and don't change... the weather in and around Cleveland on election day will be a deciding factor as to who wins the state of Ohio. And whoever wins Ohio, obviously wins the Presidency.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #2 10-23-2012, 08:08 PM

wisconsin will go to romney along with florida

Rudeboyelvis · #3 10-23-2012, 08:20 PM

If Romney carries the GOP leaning states, and continues to poll in the left leaning swing states that he's gaining traction in (IA, WI, NV), OH won't matter. There is a reason that Obama dropping like a rock on InTrade. FL is a huge loss presently - he was up 8 points before the debates; now down 2

Calzone Lord · #4 10-23-2012, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If Romney carries the GOP leaning states, and continues to poll in the left leaning swing states that he's gaining traction in (IA, WI, NV), OH won't matter. There is a reason that Obama dropping like a rock on InTrade. FL is a huge loss presently - he was up 8 points before the debates; now down 2

Romney has no chance without Ohio.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama is undefeated in Iowa -- he pulled a major upset of Hilliary Clinton in the primary there. He owes his entire presidency to Iowa.

Romney is 0-for-2 and Iowa and couldn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the primary even though he outspent him by like $10,000 to $1.

The only way Romney gets Iowa, WI, and NV is if he breaks the whole entire thing open...and if he does that, he will win Ohio as well.

If you don't win Ohio -- you don't win the election. Same for either guy.

Rudeboyelvis · #5 10-23-2012, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Romney has no chance without Ohio.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama is undefeated in Iowa -- he pulled a major upset of Hilliary Clinton in the primary there. He owes his entire presidency to Iowa.

Romney is 0-for-2 and Iowa and couldn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the primary even though he outspent him by like $10,000 to $1.

The only way Romney gets Iowa, WI, and NV is if he breaks the whole entire thing open...and if he does that, he will win Ohio as well.

If you don't win Ohio -- you don't win the election. Same for either guy.

When the poll is averaged along with other polling data from the state collected by Real Clear Politics, it shows Obama with 48.6 percent of likely voters to Romney's 47.2 percent margin.

Rasmussen has it dead even at 48%:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...iowa_president

Iowa is very much in play, and similar margins have closed in the other left leaning states.

Time zone exit poling will have much more of an effect in NV, but the numbers don't jive - OH can go to Obama and he can still lose the Electoral College

Obama won Iowa by a 9.5 percent margin in 2008 against John McCain.

Calzone Lord · #6 10-23-2012, 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Obama won Iowa by a 9.5 percent margin in 2008 against John McCain.

He also quite surprisingly trounced Hillary Clinton there in the 2008 primary.

Romney got crushed by Mike Huckabee and John McCain in Iowa in 2008 and didn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the 2012 primary even though Santorum's campaign was almost non-existent before Iowa.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama gets out the vote there. He always does better than the polls say in that state.

They aren't passionate about Mormons in Iowa.

If Romney wins Iowa, this thing is going to be an absolute landslide victory for him. Obama will get out the vote there. The Romney turnout is very shaky there.

Rudeboyelvis · #7 10-23-2012, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

He also quite surprisingly trounced Hillary Clinton there in the 2008 primary.

Romney got crushed by Mike Huckabee and John McCain in Iowa in 2008 and didn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the 2012 primary even though Santorum's campaign was almost non-existent before Iowa.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama gets out the vote there. He always does better than the polls say in that state.

They aren't passionate about Mormons in Iowa.

If Romney wins Iowa, this thing is going to be an absolute landslide victory for him. Obama will get out the vote there. The Romney turnout is very shaky there.

He totally schooled Hillary in Iowa. She ran a dreadful campaign, full of negativity, then ran out of cash. Her campaign managers - in my opinion, figured it was a slam dunk based on race and religion( still a lot of confusion back then based on whether he was truly a Muslim or not, if you can believe it) and didn't take the state seriously enough. That and he was running primarily on ending the wars while she was still very much hawkish. An anomaly.

#8 10-23-2012, 08:31 PM

I didn't check this, but from memory I don't think a Republican has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio.Cuyahago County is historically a heavy base for Democrats.

It would take some really bad weather for the Ohio vote to swing to Romney's side.

Calzone Lord · #9 10-23-2012, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointmanscousin

I didn't check this, but from memory I don't think a Republican has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio.

Since 1904, only two democrats have won without Ohio as well. John F. Kennedy and FDR in '44.

The winner of Ohio has won 25 of the last 27 presidential elections -- and it's been 100% must win for Republicans.

Romney would need an inside-straight to win this without Ohio. He'd have to get all the coin flips and steal one somewhere like Iowa where I don't think he has a chance.

#10 10-23-2012, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Since 1904, only two democrats have won without Ohio as well. John F. Kennedy and FDR in '44.

The winner of Ohio has won 25 of the last 27 presidential elections -- and it's been 100% must win for Republicans.

Romney would need an inside-straight to win this without Ohio. He'd have to get all the coin flips and steal one somewhere like Iowa where I don't think he has a chance.

....and really,really bad weather....

Riot · #11 10-23-2012, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There is no way either one can win without winning the state of Ohio.

I think it's down to Florida (29), Virginia (13) and Ohio (18) right now, and whoever wins 2 out of those 3 wins the election.

Are you entering the contest?

Calzone Lord · #12 10-23-2012, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riot

I think it's down to Florida (29), Virginia (13) and Ohio (18) right now, and whoever wins 2 out of those 3 wins the election.

Are you entering the contest?

Obama can win without Florida and Virgina.

Romney can't.

If I had to bet though -- I think Romney will win Fla and will win VA.

Riot · #13 10-23-2012, 08:33 PM

Reuters - Ipsos came out with an outlandish landslide Obama poll today ... I don't see that.