National Presidential Election contest thread

[Rudeboyelvis]

If Romney carries the GOP leaning states, and continues to poll in the left leaning swing states that he's gaining traction in (IA, WI, NV), OH won't matter. There is a reason that Obama dropping like a rock on InTrade. FL is a huge loss presently - he was up 8 points before the debates; now down 2

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If Romney carries the GOP leaning states, and continues to poll in the left leaning swing states that he's gaining traction in (IA, WI, NV), OH won't matter. There is a reason that Obama dropping like a rock on InTrade. FL is a huge loss presently - he was up 8 points before the debates; now down 2

Romney has no chance without Ohio.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama is undefeated in Iowa -- he pulled a major upset of Hilliary Clinton in the primary there. He owes his entire presidency to Iowa.

Romney is 0-for-2 and Iowa and couldn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the primary even though he outspent him by like $10,000 to $1.

The only way Romney gets Iowa, WI, and NV is if he breaks the whole entire thing open...and if he does that, he will win Ohio as well.

If you don't win Ohio -- you don't win the election. Same for either guy.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Romney has no chance without Ohio.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama is undefeated in Iowa -- he pulled a major upset of Hilliary Clinton in the primary there. He owes his entire presidency to Iowa.

Romney is 0-for-2 and Iowa and couldn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the primary even though he outspent him by like $10,000 to $1.

The only way Romney gets Iowa, WI, and NV is if he breaks the whole entire thing open...and if he does that, he will win Ohio as well.

If you don't win Ohio -- you don't win the election. Same for either guy.

When the poll is averaged along with other polling data from the state collected by Real Clear Politics, it shows Obama with 48.6 percent of likely voters to Romney's 47.2 percent margin.

Rasmussen has it dead even at 48%:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...iowa_president

Iowa is very much in play, and similar margins have closed in the other left leaning states.

Time zone exit poling will have much more of an effect in NV, but the numbers don't jive - OH can go to Obama and he can still lose the Electoral College

Obama won Iowa by a 9.5 percent margin in 2008 against John McCain.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Obama won Iowa by a 9.5 percent margin in 2008 against John McCain.

He also quite surprisingly trounced Hillary Clinton there in the 2008 primary.

Romney got crushed by Mike Huckabee and John McCain in Iowa in 2008 and didn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the 2012 primary even though Santorum's campaign was almost non-existent before Iowa.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama gets out the vote there. He always does better than the polls say in that state.

They aren't passionate about Mormons in Iowa.

If Romney wins Iowa, this thing is going to be an absolute landslide victory for him. Obama will get out the vote there. The Romney turnout is very shaky there.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

He also quite surprisingly trounced Hillary Clinton there in the 2008 primary.

Romney got crushed by Mike Huckabee and John McCain in Iowa in 2008 and didn't even beat Rick Santorum there in the 2012 primary even though Santorum's campaign was almost non-existent before Iowa.

Iowa borders Illinois. Obama gets out the vote there. He always does better than the polls say in that state.

They aren't passionate about Mormons in Iowa.

If Romney wins Iowa, this thing is going to be an absolute landslide victory for him. Obama will get out the vote there. The Romney turnout is very shaky there.

He totally schooled Hillary in Iowa. She ran a dreadful campaign, full of negativity, then ran out of cash. Her campaign managers - in my opinion, figured it was a slam dunk based on race and religion( still a lot of confusion back then based on whether he was truly a Muslim or not, if you can believe it) and didn't take the state seriously enough. That and he was running primarily on ending the wars while she was still very much hawkish. An anomaly.

[joeydb]

Romney 311 - Obama 227

[Clip-Clop]

269-269

Romney is given the election due to superior cash.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by joeydb

Romney 311 - Obama 227

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9y1vGxPVAA

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

He totally schooled Hillary in Iowa. She ran a dreadful campaign, full of negativity, then ran out of cash. Her campaign managers - in my opinion, figured it was a slam dunk based on race and religion( still a lot of confusion back then based on whether he was truly a Muslim or not, if you can believe it)

Do you realize that the entire source of the "Is Obama a Muslim?" thing was completely made up and started by a Hillary secondary campaign worker, who sent it out in an e-mail from the campaign? And Hillary had a fit about it, and ordered it stopped.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Rasmussen’s polling (all conducted during the past week except for in Pennsylvania) shows Romney ahead in Florida (by 5 percentage points), Virginia (by 3 points), Colorado (by 4 points), and New Hampshire (by 2 points). It shows Obama ahead in Pennsylvania (by 5 points), Wisconsin (by 2 points), and Nevada (by 2 points). It shows Ohio and Iowa tied.


http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...53_657575.html

I didn't check this, but from memory I don't think a Republican has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio.Cuyahago County is historically a heavy base for Democrats.

It would take some really bad weather for the Ohio vote to swing to Romney's side.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pointmanscousin

I didn't check this, but from memory I don't think a Republican has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio.

Since 1904, only two democrats have won without Ohio as well. John F. Kennedy and FDR in '44.

The winner of Ohio has won 25 of the last 27 presidential elections -- and it's been 100% must win for Republicans.

Romney would need an inside-straight to win this without Ohio. He'd have to get all the coin flips and steal one somewhere like Iowa where I don't think he has a chance.

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Since 1904, only two democrats have won without Ohio as well. John F. Kennedy and FDR in '44.

The winner of Ohio has won 25 of the last 27 presidential elections -- and it's been 100% must win for Republicans.

Romney would need an inside-straight to win this without Ohio. He'd have to get all the coin flips and steal one somewhere like Iowa where I don't think he has a chance.

....and really,really bad weather....