Dirty, Rotten Traitors at the Daily Beast

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

Polls are only relevant and true if the Dem candidate has the lead. Otherwise they're false, misleading or a non-issue.

Hypocrisy to the bone.

I'm not sure about the polls in this case. All the betting sites still have Obama as about a -180 favorite. In general, I trust the betting sites more than the polls for the simple reason that these sites would lose millions of dollars if they didn't know how to make a good betting line. That being said, they're not going to be correct every time.

Before the debates, they thought Obama had around a 75-80% chance of winning. Right now they are giving Obama a 62% chance of winning. That seems a little high to me. My guess is that the race is very close. I would probably make Obama a slight favorite right now, maybe -120 or something like that. I think Romney has a reasonable chance to win.

If anyone ever wants to check the exchange wagering lines to see what percentage chance they think each guy has of winning, here is the link:

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not sure about the polls in this case. All the betting sites still have Obama as about a -180 favorite. In general, I trust the betting sites more than the polls for the simple reason that these sites would lose millions of dollars if they didn't know how to make a good betting line. That being said, they're not going to be correct every time.

Before the debates, they thought Obama had around a 75-80% chance of winning. Right now they are giving Obama a 62% chance of winning. That seems a little high to me. My guess is that the race is very close. I would probably make Obama a slight favorite right now, maybe -120 or something like that. I think Romney has a reasonable chance to win.

If anyone ever wants to check the exchange wagering lines to see what percentage chance they think each guy has of winning, here is the link:

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/

I agree with you that the betting sites are fairly accurate.

I'm not surprised Romney got a 1-2% bump out of his debate, as being a liar isn't as important to his base as "being a tough mother beating on Obama". They like that. But Romney has to win nearly all the swing states, and he's quite behind there. He not only has to hope his bump holds, he has to hope he continues to gain.

Another highly accurate guy is Nate Silver.

Five-Thirty-Eight has the daily tracker as Chance of Winning, Obama 76.9%, Romney 23.1%

Electoral college, however, is still 297.4 to 240.6. Mitt needs 270. Won't get it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Riot

I agree with you that the betting sites are fairly accurate.

I'm not surprised Romney got a 1-2% bump out of his debate, as being a liar isn't as important to his base as "being a tough mother beating on Obama". They like that. But Romney has to win nearly all the swing states, and he's quite behind there. He not only has to hope his bump holds, he has to hope he continues to gain.

Another highly accurate guy is Nate Silver.

Five-Thirty-Eight has the daily tracker as Chance of Winning, Obama 76.9%, Romney 23.1%

Electoral college, however, is still 297.4 to 240.6. Mitt needs 270. Won't get it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I think he got a much bigger bounce than 1-2%. It is more like 5-6%.

When it comes to the subject of being a liar, I don't think anyone could top Obama:

http://obamalies.net/list-of-lies

This is an incomplete list too. They don't even mention that he promised he would not hassle medical marijuana dispensaries yet now the feds are trying to shut them all down in California.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think he got a much bigger bounce than 1-2%. It is more like 5-6%.

I have yet to see any poll that shows that - what are you looking at?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Riot

I have yet to see any poll that shows that - what are you looking at?

How about the poll that the Daily Beast cited in the Sullivan article. That poll was done by Pew. It showed a 12% bounce.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How about the poll that the Daily Beast cited in the Sullivan article. That poll was done by Pew. It showed a 12% bounce.

Pew doesn't have Romney ahead by any measure remotely close to what he'd need to win electoral votes in the swing states and win. Either does anybody else.

Romney fans need to enjoy this week

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not sure about the polls in this case. All the betting sites still have Obama as about a -180 favorite. In general, I trust the betting sites more than the polls for the simple reason that these sites would lose millions of dollars if they didn't know how to make a good betting line. That being said, they're not going to be correct every time.

Before the debates, they thought Obama had around a 75-80% chance of winning. Right now they are giving Obama a 62% chance of winning. That seems a little high to me. My guess is that the race is very close. I would probably make Obama a slight favorite right now, maybe -120 or something like that. I think Romney has a reasonable chance to win.

If anyone ever wants to check the exchange wagering lines to see what percentage chance they think each guy has of winning, here is the link:

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/

IMO Betting sites simply try to predict how the public will bet, not the outcome of an election similar to what a morning lines oddsmaker does at the track. Then odds are obviously changed depending on bets coming in.

Thus the change in odds makes Romney the wise guy pic of the race.