Del Mar Pick 5 Carryover ($300K+) Early Discussion

[10 pnt move up]

Slammer Time looks like a little bit of a trap to me, have to use in the sequence but I am not keen on the trainer move.

Its actually a very tough sequence. In race 1 just about all of them have run figures that could win the race. In the second leg there is nothing that stands out.

I agree on Baffert, its pretty rare that he gives up this early and goes to turf.

[tanner12oz]

betamerica preview

Two carryovers to choose from when racing resumes Wednesday, August 15 at Del Mar with the Pick-5 first on the menu.

Race one, a claiming race on the turf, starts the pick-5 and right off the bat bettors will have to spread. The morning line favorite is Muny at 5-2 and while the stretch out to a mile helps, he has not won since November 2011 at Hollywood Park. Slammer Time and Aqua Fever fit, but both are coming off of layoffs. The in-form horses are Deadly Catch and Fire Break. Why Not Be perfect is an interesting play at 10-1 on the morning line. He ran a respectable race in his first So Cal effort and moves to a surface where he has been in-the-money in half of his 18 starts.

The second is a maiden claimer for fillies and mares and it may be a good shot to take a chance with first-time-starter Strike Em’ Out for trainer Jeff Mullins. Oscillator is another firster with fast works while Country Soul will improve in her second start. Silver Luna is the morning line favorite at 7-2, but he has also lost more times than the rest of the field’s combined starts.

A one-mile allowance race on the main track is next and expect Hoorayforhollywood to take the lion’s share of the wagering. He makes his second start off a layoff and can win as the favorite. This race also starts the pick-6, which has a carryover of $240,680.

Back on the turf for the fourth race with maiden two-year-old fillies going one mile. Power Broker and Shining Copper are the two second-time starters to use. Shining Copper ran on the turf in her debut while Power Broker ran on the Polytrack at Del Mar. Moreno and Money Makin Sam make their third career start and are bred to handle to the turf.

The final leg of the pick-5, and third leg of the pick-6, is a claiming race at one mile for fillies and mares on the main track. My Gal Candy goes first off-the-claim for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who has won his last two starts at the meet after winning one in his first 30. Inner Grove looked good beating lesser company and now rises in class for new trainer Jack Carava. Town Belle deserves a long shot look if she is ready to run off the long layoff. Demure Halo and Dilly’s Dancer have respectable figures, but the horses from Texas have traditionally not run well at Del Mar.

The pick-5 looks like the bet on Wednesday even with the carryover in the pick-6. The pick-5 is a 50-cent minimum, compared to $2 with the pick-6, and also has a low takeout rate of 14%.

First post on Wednesday at Del Mar and the start of the pick-5 is 5:05 ET. Check BetAmerica on Twitter and Facebook for updates and final picks for the Wednesday card.

[Track Phantom!]

It appears the pick 5 might be a tad chalky. With that kind of money in the pool, if it were all favorites, what would be the lowest payoff expected?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom!

It appears the pick 5 might be a tad chalky. With that kind of money in the pool, if it were all favorites, what would be the lowest payoff expected?

If I had a dollar for everyone that said a sequence looked chalky I'd be able to build a nice ticket.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom!

It appears the pick 5 might be a tad chalky. With that kind of money in the pool, if it were all favorites, what would be the lowest payoff expected?

Hey! Look who's back.

You going to be redboarding this one as well?

[tanner12oz]

i haven't really combed it over yet and won't do so till i see the scratch board but i don't see a clear cut "single". ya know the kinda horse that literally everyone has and is the key to the sequence...

i'm looking to spend a few hundred and i'll more then likely be playing something like 1x5x5x5x4..like i said though i haven't really started filtering anything...i've had a couple good ones by using the all or nothing single and spread strategy...the last 2 singles were I'll Have Another and Rothko in another sequence...

[santana]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom!

It appears the pick 5 might be a tad chalky. With that kind of money in the pool, if it were all favorites, what would be the lowest payoff expected?

People that ask what might this pay ?, Really are kinda nuts. What the F is the difference what it pays ? Worry about hitting it first, then check the tote and see what you get back.
I have a friend or 2 that worry about payoffs while capping a race.....bad move if you ask me....Pik the winners then worry about the payoff..

GL

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by santana

People that ask what might this pay ?, Really are kinda nuts. What the F is the difference what it pays ? Worry about hitting it first, then check the tote and see what you get back.
I have a friend or 2 that worry about payoffs while capping a race.....bad move if you ask me....Pik the winners then worry about the payoff..

GL

He's going to say he had it no matter what, that's why he's wondering.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by santana

People that ask what might this pay ?, Really are kinda nuts. What the F is the difference what it pays ? Worry about hitting it first, then check the tote and see what you get back.
I have a friend or 2 that worry about payoffs while capping a race.....bad move if you ask me....Pik the winners then worry about the payoff..

GL

How much you are willing to risk is directly tied (for me anyway) to the potential benefit. It's not crazy to have an idea about the potential payout, it's actually a bankroll management 101 concept in my opinion.

[Vegaskid]

By the look of the card it should pay out nicely... Lots of money burners running, and the HUGE VULNERABLE fav in the 4th... 5 deep in each leg that have a shot

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Vegaskid

By the look of the card it should pay out nicely... Lots of money burners running, and the HUGE VULNERABLE fav in the 4th... 5 deep in each leg that have a shot

I'd say there are vulnerabilities at almost every turn, and if I'm going to single, it'd be with My Gal Candy in the 5th, but even that isn't strong.

The 2nd's ML fave is 0-19 coming off the best performance of career at 40-1+...and the 9-2 co-second choice is off a 2+ year layoff and trained by like a 1-for-19.

I agree.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by santana

People that ask what might this pay ?, Really are kinda nuts. What the F is the difference what it pays ? Worry about hitting it first, then check the tote and see what you get back.
I have a friend or 2 that worry about payoffs while capping a race.....bad move if you ask me....Pik the winners then worry about the payoff..

GL

I almost always worry about what its going to pay, maybe not so much in this case but 99% of time.

[SMC2323]

Twinspires has My Gal Candy scr in the 5th

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by SMC2323

Twinspires has My Gal Candy scr in the 5th

what are the other scratches?

all of the money is going to be dumped on baffert in the 3rd

[Scav]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Slammer Time looks like a little bit of a trap to me, have to use in the sequence but I am not keen on the trainer move.

Its actually a very tough sequence. In race 1 just about all of them have run figures that could win the race. In the second leg there is nothing that stands out.

I agree on Baffert, its pretty rare that he gives up this early and goes to turf.

Couldn't it be just a distance thing instead of a surface thing. The horse isn't bred to want 6 furlongs and the only two turn races right now for babies are on turf.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Scav

Couldn't it be just a distance thing instead of a surface thing. The horse isn't bred to want 6 furlongs and the only two turn races right now for babies are on turf.

Maybe a good point, you would think those races are coming.