Del Mar Pick 5 Carryover ($300K+) Early Discussion

[dpkovalesky]

i havent seen a morning line yet, but i think Our Merv in the finale really interests me and might get overlooked.

[Scav]

Good explanation on why its a great play on Wednesday.

http://www.barntowire.com/2012/BPnotes120813.html

[dylbert]

My $27 ticket (or stab) at Wednesday's Del Mar P5 carryover

Race 1 - 2:05 PM
1 Slammer Time (CA) 4/G L $32,000 G K Gomez 124 M F Jones
6 Muny (KY) 7/G L $32,000 J Talamo 124 M R Mitchell
7 Aqua Fever (KY) 4/G L $32,000 M A Pedroza 124 J Mullins

Race 2 - 2:30 PM
5 Country Soul (KY) 3/F L $18,000 E Flores 1135 D F O'Neill
9 She Can Roar (CA) 5/M L $18,000 A Delgadillo 122 R Becerra
12 Tina's Express (CA) 3/F L $20,000 M A Pedroza 120 J Gutierrez

Race 3 - 3:00 PM
1 Hoorayforhollywood (KY) 4/C L $0 R Bejarano 120 B Baffert
2 Honour the Deputy (FL) 5/G L $62,500 C S Nakatani 120 J Hollendorfer
3 McKenzies Way (KY) 4/C L $0 G K Gomez 120 M R Mitchell

Race 4 - 3:30 PM
3 Power Broker (KY) 2/C L R Bejarano 118 B Baffert
4 Shining Copper (KY) 2/C D R Flores 118 N D Drysdale

Race 5 - 4:00 PM
4 Inner Groove (KY) 5/M L $32,000 R Bejarano 120 J Carava

[tanner12oz]

these have been paying VERY WELL even without the carryover...ive seen very logical selections with a favorite or two thrown into the sequence still paying mid 4 digits ($5K)...

even without any bombs away on this and something like favorite and then second, third choice types this could easily see between 5-10k...i freaking LOVE .50 pick 5's

[PatCummings]

There might be love for Baffert in the 4th race, but some strong negative stats considering the move to grass. Last 5 years, Baffert is 1/13 with second time starters being switched to the turf (that was G1 winner Internallyflawless).

[10 pnt move up]

Slammer Time looks like a little bit of a trap to me, have to use in the sequence but I am not keen on the trainer move.

Its actually a very tough sequence. In race 1 just about all of them have run figures that could win the race. In the second leg there is nothing that stands out.

I agree on Baffert, its pretty rare that he gives up this early and goes to turf.

[tanner12oz]

betamerica preview

Two carryovers to choose from when racing resumes Wednesday, August 15 at Del Mar with the Pick-5 first on the menu.

Race one, a claiming race on the turf, starts the pick-5 and right off the bat bettors will have to spread. The morning line favorite is Muny at 5-2 and while the stretch out to a mile helps, he has not won since November 2011 at Hollywood Park. Slammer Time and Aqua Fever fit, but both are coming off of layoffs. The in-form horses are Deadly Catch and Fire Break. Why Not Be perfect is an interesting play at 10-1 on the morning line. He ran a respectable race in his first So Cal effort and moves to a surface where he has been in-the-money in half of his 18 starts.

The second is a maiden claimer for fillies and mares and it may be a good shot to take a chance with first-time-starter Strike Em’ Out for trainer Jeff Mullins. Oscillator is another firster with fast works while Country Soul will improve in her second start. Silver Luna is the morning line favorite at 7-2, but he has also lost more times than the rest of the field’s combined starts.

A one-mile allowance race on the main track is next and expect Hoorayforhollywood to take the lion’s share of the wagering. He makes his second start off a layoff and can win as the favorite. This race also starts the pick-6, which has a carryover of $240,680.

Back on the turf for the fourth race with maiden two-year-old fillies going one mile. Power Broker and Shining Copper are the two second-time starters to use. Shining Copper ran on the turf in her debut while Power Broker ran on the Polytrack at Del Mar. Moreno and Money Makin Sam make their third career start and are bred to handle to the turf.

The final leg of the pick-5, and third leg of the pick-6, is a claiming race at one mile for fillies and mares on the main track. My Gal Candy goes first off-the-claim for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, who has won his last two starts at the meet after winning one in his first 30. Inner Grove looked good beating lesser company and now rises in class for new trainer Jack Carava. Town Belle deserves a long shot look if she is ready to run off the long layoff. Demure Halo and Dilly’s Dancer have respectable figures, but the horses from Texas have traditionally not run well at Del Mar.

The pick-5 looks like the bet on Wednesday even with the carryover in the pick-6. The pick-5 is a 50-cent minimum, compared to $2 with the pick-6, and also has a low takeout rate of 14%.

First post on Wednesday at Del Mar and the start of the pick-5 is 5:05 ET. Check BetAmerica on Twitter and Facebook for updates and final picks for the Wednesday card.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Slammer Time looks like a little bit of a trap to me, have to use in the sequence but I am not keen on the trainer move.

Its actually a very tough sequence. In race 1 just about all of them have run figures that could win the race. In the second leg there is nothing that stands out.

I agree on Baffert, its pretty rare that he gives up this early and goes to turf.

Couldn't it be just a distance thing instead of a surface thing. The horse isn't bred to want 6 furlongs and the only two turn races right now for babies are on turf.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by dpkovalesky

i havent seen a morning line yet, but i think Our Merv in the finale really interests me and might get overlooked.

wrong sequence

[tanner12oz]

leaning towards Aqua Fever in the 1st...don't like Muny at all...big time odds on habitual money burner....NOPE