dullahan

[slotdirt]

I think it was 45 and change, but potatoes and potatos.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think it was 45 and change, but potatoes and potatos.

oh..thanks i didnt see it was 45..

[ateamstupid]

If he's to have any chance to win, he'll need to do it from closer to the pace than he's ever been around two turns. In a 12-furlong race with a projected moderate pace, that drop back and make one late run shtick isn't going to cut it. I just can't see it. I'll Have Another and Paynter both will get first run on him. Castellano has to hope neither of those two will get the distance.

[ArlJim78]

I agree with that, I don't see him running close to the pace then outfinishing I'll Have Another, and if he hangs way back to make a run I think he's doomed. Many people get all excited about closers having more distance to get the job done. not me.

[Thunder Gulch]

I HATED Dullahan in the Derby, and I still have my doubts about him on dirt, but he was brilliant on the Belmont dirt a few days ago, and Romans thinks he's ready. I think he and Paynter are the two IHA has to worry about. I've completely abandoned the Union Rags bandwagon for the time being.

[Calzone Lord]

I actually look for at least a little more pace than people are expecting in the Belmont.

You have a full field, a big crowd that might stir up a few horses, not a very long run into the 1st turn, and a lot of jockeys on hopeless horses who know they have no shot if they're not forward...and might want to try and pull a D' Tara on the front end or a Commendable pressing a stretch-out sprinter from a clear 2nd.

Paynter won a 5.5 furlong maiden race just four months ago. Unstoppable U won a 6 furlong maiden dueling on the lead less than 3 months ago. A few other horses in there can go faster than 48.

I just wish I didn't have to hear all of those people going on about how Dullahan is training. I'm gonna take one last shot with him. I don't see myself on him again for a while after this.

[Perrault Robbed]

Calzone, didn't you mention in a previous thread that the late runners from the Derby were horses to bet against next time out? The statment held to form as Went the Day Well did not go the day well in the Preakness. Are you not going against your own advice by picking Dullahan?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Perrault Robbed

Calzone, didn't you mention in a previous thread that the late runners from the Derby were horses to bet against next time out? The statment held to form as Went the Day Well did not go the day well in the Preakness. Are you not going against your own advice by picking Dullahan?

Summer Bird and Jazil seemed to do alright.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Perrault Robbed

Calzone, didn't you mention in a previous thread that the late runners from the Derby were horses to bet against next time out? The statment held to form as Went the Day Well did not go the day well in the Preakness. Are you not going against your own advice by picking Dullahan?

Yes, I am.

However, deep closers also can overachieve in the Belmont if they get a 47 and change pace.

If they don't ... they have to be clear-cut the best horse in order to win.

Dullahan obviously needs 47 and change and he needs Union Rags to give I'll Have Another a little pressure after a mile.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

If he's to have any chance to win, he'll need to do it from closer to the pace than he's ever been around two turns. In a 12-furlong race with a projected moderate pace, that drop back and make one late run shtick isn't going to cut it. I just can't see it. I'll Have Another and Paynter both will get first run on him. Castellano has to hope neither of those two will get the distance.

i agree. belmont is usually kinder to front runners and stalkers, not the closers. too many think every time a horse almost gets there that with added distance, he will. and then they don't. but they get oh so close, and suck in some bettors next time around...