Beyer: Changing the Derby Trial figure

[cmorioles]

I'm not going to get into how Beyer handled the numbers, but I'd like to look at the pace part of the races in question. First, isn't it important to note that in the Derby Trial, Paynter was basically in a three horse speed duel that featured pretty decent fractions, while at Pimlico he sat on the outside of an inferior rival (he was 1 to 10), set modest at best fractions, and drew off while never really being under pressure? I would expect a much better final time number at Pimlico.

These are the numbers I have for Paynter (I use a new scale, not Beyer):

CD   04/28/2012   8    82    81    75
PIM  05/19/2012   4    76    79    84

Note that even with the big gap of 9 points (about 14 on the Beyer scale), I'm not going back and changing the Trial number. Why would I? I don't do things this simply, but if you add up the three ratings the races look VERY similar, 238 to 239.

Pace can and does often have a lot to do with the final numbers. Even if pace weren't a factor here (and it clearly was), I would still say just because a lightly raced three year old jumps up to a big number doesn't mean previous figures are wrong. They are supposed to be improving, and Paynter found the ultimate circumstances to hang up a big number.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I'm not going to get into how Beyer handled the numbers, but I'd like to look at the pace part of the races in question. First, isn't it important to note that in the Derby Trial, Paynter was basically in a three horse speed duel that featured pretty decent fractions, while at Pimlico he sat on the outside of an inferior rival (he was 1 to 10), set modest at best fractions, and drew off while never really being under pressure? I would expect a much better final time number at Pimlico.

These are the numbers I have for Paynter (I use a new scale, not Beyer):

CD   04/28/2012   8    82    81    75
PIM  05/19/2012   4    76    79    84

Note that even with the big gap of 9 points (about 14 on the Beyer scale), I'm not going back and changing the Trial number. Why would I? I don't do things this simply, but if you add up the three ratings the races look VERY similar, 238 to 239.

Pace can and does often have a lot to do with the final numbers. Even if pace weren't a factor here (and it clearly was), I would still say just because a lightly raced three year old jumps up to a big number doesn't mean previous figures are wrong. They are supposed to be improving, and Paynter found the ultimate circumstances to hang up a big number.

I think this is an excellent post and explains things very clearly, especially the bolded part. Excellent.

[Round Pen]

Here is the question I Have now and it is a "big what if" the rest of the horses in the Derby trial field excluding Paynter come back in there next start and run no where near the new figure Beyer now has for the Derby Trial, does he go back and readjust the figure again?????, or does he leave it the same based on what Paynter did in his start at Pimlico..

I am quite anxious to see our colt (Stealcase) make his next start which will probably be in an allowance race or the Matt Winn at CD in the coming weeks.

[Round Pen]

Just in Case any one would happen to follow this our Colt (Stealcase 3rd in Derby trial) made his 1st Start since that Race Yeasterday in an entry Level Allowance Race And Won Quite Handily and Recieved an 93 Beyer. I think He has a Pretty Bright future.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Just in Case any one would happen to follow this our Colt (Stealcase 3rd in Derby trial) made his 1st Start since that Race Yeasterday in an entry Level Allowance Race And Won Quite Handily and Recieved an 93 Beyer. I think He has a Pretty Bright future.

Funny, he regressed 7 points on Beyer...shocking. The Black also ran again and regressed 6 points off the "adjusted" Beyer.