Beyer: Changing the Derby Trial figure
 

Here is the Link were Beyer Explains why he made the Change.

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-changi...y-trial-figure

The main reason this caught my eye is we had the 3rd Place finisher in the Derby trial a colt by the name of Stealcase. Orginally the beyer he recieved was a 92, now with the adjustment he recieved a 100. Talking with Mark Casse this AM neither one of us could recall a Beyer being changed that much. (on one of our horses).

Any thoughts on the Change ????

My thoughts are it makes perfect sense, and you are just doing your best with the information provided.

As an interesting side note we had a discussion about the SA Derby figure being a little low, Paynter who ran in the Derby Trial was in both races with a big disparity in figures (89 to 100), maybe just more evidence that the SA Derby was a better race than it looked on paper heading into the Derby.

Paynter's 1-back number jumped from 92 to 100.




I have the impression that the Pimlico track was being fooled with a little early on in the Preakness card.

Obviously -- if a race track is fair -- the rail will be the best place to be generally speaking...because it's the shortest way around.

The rail was made deep for the dirt races on the Preakness day card.

Bob Baffert asked Jeff Siegal in an HRTV interview that day if he should change Bodemeister's style... Siegal told Baffert "no, but I would tell Mike Smith to stay out in the 3 or 4 path while he's setting the pace"

Smith basically kept him in the two-path throughout. I was very surprised he didn't even come out when he was clear on the far turn. Even on a fair track -- a lot of guys would have floated out and tried to herd and race ride. Especially on a tiring track like that where the inside is no good and you might get a little edge if you can come out and stop the momentum of anything on-coming.

Given the weather and track conditions at Churchill that night, it's not hard to believe the figures are tough to pinpoint.

I'm not going to get into how Beyer handled the numbers, but I'd like to look at the pace part of the races in question. First, isn't it important to note that in the Derby Trial, Paynter was basically in a three horse speed duel that featured pretty decent fractions, while at Pimlico he sat on the outside of an inferior rival (he was 1 to 10), set modest at best fractions, and drew off while never really being under pressure? I would expect a much better final time number at Pimlico.

These are the numbers I have for Paynter (I use a new scale, not Beyer):

Note that even with the big gap of 9 points (about 14 on the Beyer scale), I'm not going back and changing the Trial number. Why would I? I don't do things this simply, but if you add up the three ratings the races look VERY similar, 238 to 239.

Pace can and does often have a lot to do with the final numbers. Even if pace weren't a factor here (and it clearly was), I would still say just because a lightly raced three year old jumps up to a big number doesn't mean previous figures are wrong. They are supposed to be improving, and Paynter found the ultimate circumstances to hang up a big number.

I agree with you on this thought. I'm sure Smith has thought about this. I still don't know why tracks have to mess with the condition of the track on big days. Whether it be tightening it up or messing with the depth. Must be very frustrating for figure makers dealing with all this change..

Opening day at Louisiana Downs was a complete stagger fest for all horses down the stretch. I honestly thought I could have jumped in at the eigth pole and been competitive myself.

The track superintendent, who does a fantastic job, called me up and asked about it. The next day they were finishing no problem. He said sometimes you need a few days to get things right and make the right adjustments.

The point is... it's really easy for any track super to make pretty drastic changes in a matter of minutes. It's a pretty powerful position at the end of the day, but I don't think a lot of them purposefully try and create drag strips on big days, although I'm sure some do.

...just to add though... I've been sitting in the office when a track super came in and asked if he should speed up the track for Super Derby. Luckily here no one cares about a fast raw time and so no "souped up" tracks have really occurred at LAD since I've been here.

Also, our rail gets pretty deep. I've asked about it. He said the water truck has a hard time covering the inside path like the rest of the track. So when we have extended periods with no rain, the rail gets deep. Most of the jockeys, however, don't pick up on it.

Lots of little nuances at play when it comes to surfaces.

I think this is an excellent post and explains things very clearly, especially the bolded part. Excellent.

Here is the question I Have now and it is a "big what if" the rest of the horses in the Derby trial field excluding Paynter come back in there next start and run no where near the new figure Beyer now has for the Derby Trial, does he go back and readjust the figure again?????, or does he leave it the same based on what Paynter did in his start at Pimlico..

I am quite anxious to see our colt (Stealcase) make his next start which will probably be in an allowance race or the Matt Winn at CD in the coming weeks.

Just in Case any one would happen to follow this our Colt (Stealcase 3rd in Derby trial) made his 1st Start since that Race Yeasterday in an entry Level Allowance Race And Won Quite Handily and Recieved an 93 Beyer. I think He has a Pretty Bright future.

Funny, he regressed 7 points on Beyer...shocking. The Black also ran again and regressed 6 points off the "adjusted" Beyer.