Bounce theory

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

My 2 cents - (and not really even worth 2 cents)
I believe what Thunder Gulch says - that the top horses simply don't run enough to "bounce", but I see it in day to day claimers that run every 2-3 weeks - they will work themselves up to a fit/conditioned level, then bounce off a top effort - here is an example from today's 3rd at Tampa:



In very broad terms, the Beyers give you a fair account of this one's best efforts, and shows the bounce afterward

Thorograph does a much better job illustrating this point:



I'm sure there are sheet players that may disagree with this assessment, but for me, this horse is a major bounce candidate today, even though she actually fits the race and the 10-1 morning line will not be close to the post time line ('Im, guessing 9-2 to 6-1).

all that said, might be a good idea to throw a few bucks on her nose

or on the other hand...she improved from a 21 to a 41-i'd think people would have expected a bounce from her next out, since she doubled the effortfrom her previous. instead, she showed another improvement to a 53. further back, improved 11 points, and then added five on the next start. her best earlier was a 39-she didn't bounce, but moved up from that to the 44. also, note changes in distance from start to start. she dropped to a 21, but also shortened to 7f from a mile and 40. i think there's more to it than just looking at the beyer ups and downs. then there's the change in track from PID to Tam-surface change help her?
i think one trick is when to find a possible regression-but looking at her pp's, it looks like it's hard to say when that might come. she might improve a few more points next out, or she might not. if she improves again, i hope you have money on her!

[Cannon Shell]

Romanova, the winner of that race is out of a Nijinsky II mare. You dont see that much anymore.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Romanova, the winner of that race is out of a Nijinsky II mare. You dont see that much anymore.

Reverie was foaled in 1992, so she would have been 18 when she gave birth to Romanova.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Danzig

or on the other hand...she improved from a 21 to a 41-i'd think people would have expected a bounce from her next out, since she doubled the effortfrom her previous.

Those races were equally bad on TG - I highlighted the BSF tops to illustrate the point - you can't accurately use speed figures to try and determine bounce in my opinion.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Those races were equally bad on TG - I highlighted the BSF tops to illustrate the point - you can't accurately use speed figures to try and determine bounce in my opinion.

oh, ok. i was just looking at them since you'd circled a few.

[JohnGalt1]

My belief is it's common for many horses to run fast races then slow then fast and that is not wheat i dfine as a bounce.

My definition is after a long (3+ month) layoff, and a horse runs an up close (less than one length ahead or behind) most of the way around the track, then has a bad race--that's a bounce.

A good angle is to rate the horse off the comeback race in his third start after the layoff. It's called the Back Bounce Back pattern or BBB.