obama should lose

[Seattleallstar]

these numbers dont matter, what is going to matter is where the votes will go in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and a couple other possible swing states for their electoral votes. Its already granted hes probably lost a few states already that uncharistically voted for the Democratic nominee as President.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

these numbers dont matter, what is going to matter is where the votes will go in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and a couple other possible swing states for their electoral votes. Its already granted hes probably lost a few states already that uncharistically voted for the Democratic nominee as President.

Obama doesn't have a chance if he can't shore up his base. Many on the left are disenchanted with him. Not that they are going to turn around and vote Republican, but they aren't as enthusiastic about him as they were in 2008.

You will get one of the better gauges of how things are going for Obama if you see Dem House and Senate candidates in competitive districts and states avoiding him in August.

[Riot]

OWS type activists and the Dem base are already focused on downticket races and taking back the House (and expanding Senate) in a 1964 type sweep.

[hi_im_god]

the futures market is more accurate than any poll and it's basically calling the election too close to call.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/co...tractId=743474

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Riot

OWS type activists and the Dem base are already focused on downticket races and taking back the House (and expanding Senate) in a 1964 type sweep.

Hold on now....I thought OWS was non-partisan????

Based on your comment they are not only not non-partisan but arent particularly lucid either.

[Cannon Shell]

The election for President is going to be won or lost on who runs the more effective attack ads. Obama cant run on his record because it is not only dismal he has pissed off the far lefties which made getting him elected a huge priority in 2008 because they mistakenly thought he was one of them (probably wont see that swell of grassroots support). The GOP nominee is going to face the fact that they probably dont have much of a record and will need to stay right to keep the religious nuts happy (especially Romney who will be looked upon warily by the South) in case plain hatred for Obama is not enough to make them actually get out and vote.

I predict that we see new lows in ad's on both sides as both Obama and the GOP nominee wont do anything but appeal to the base and try to trick indy's, not by swaying them FOR them but against the other guy.

Obama is lucky that all the sane and reasonable GOP potentials are keeping a low profile and not running because he really has very little going for him at this point. The fact that he is even with the bunch of misfits says all you need to know about what people think of his Presidency.

I do like the lower volume commercial thing though

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The election for President is going to be won or lost on who runs the more effective attack ads. Obama cant run on his record because it is not only dismal he has pissed off the far lefties which made getting him elected a huge priority in 2008 because they mistakenly thought he was one of them (probably wont see that swell of grassroots support). The GOP nominee is going to face the fact that they probably dont have much of a record and will need to stay right to keep the religious nuts happy (especially Romney who will be looked upon warily by the South) in case plain hatred for Obama is not enough to make them actually get out and vote.

I predict that we see new lows in ad's on both sides as both Obama and the GOP nominee wont do anything but appeal to the base and try to trick indy's, not by swaying them FOR them but against the other guy.

Obama is lucky that all the sane and reasonable GOP potentials are keeping a low profile and not running because he really has very little going for him at this point. The fact that he is even with the bunch of misfits says all you need to know about what people think of his Presidency.

I do like the lower volume commercial thing though

i think the fact that obama will be running a seriously negative campaign is a given. it'll be a far cry from the high tone of the 2008 "hope and change" campaign. they'll be all out to paint romney as an out of touch plutocrat who shipped jobs overseas. obama won't get re-elected if he doesn't make the choice between him and something worse.

they're already running ad's in swing states trying to define romney. i'm just glad i live where the election result is a given. neither campaign will waste a whole lot of ad $ is california. the new volume rules don't go into effect until next december and it's going to be a loud campaign.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The election for President is going to be won or lost on who runs the more effective attack ads. Obama cant run on his record because it is not only dismal he has pissed off the far lefties which made getting him elected a huge priority in 2008 because they mistakenly thought he was one of them (probably wont see that swell of grassroots support). The GOP nominee is going to face the fact that they probably dont have much of a record and will need to stay right to keep the religious nuts happy (especially Romney who will be looked upon warily by the South) in case plain hatred for Obama is not enough to make them actually get out and vote.

I predict that we see new lows in ad's on both sides as both Obama and the GOP nominee wont do anything but appeal to the base and try to trick indy's, not by swaying them FOR them but against the other guy.

Obama is lucky that all the sane and reasonable GOP potentials are keeping a low profile and not running because he really has very little going for him at this point. The fact that he is even with the bunch of misfits says all you need to know about what people think of his Presidency.

I do like the lower volume commercial thing though

the lefties might be pissed, but they're still going to vote for obama...or not vote. they won't vote for the opposition. just like the right-it's not like they're going to vote for obama, no matter how unpalatable romney might be. it's the indies, the middle who will decide, just like always. obama said himself that if he didn't fix things, he'd be a one termer. of course he'll run on a four years isn't enough to fix things type campaign, which is correct. but he dug himself that hole, now he'll have to get out of it.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Danzig

the lefties might be pissed, but they're still going to vote for obama...or not vote. they won't vote for the opposition. just like the right-it's not like they're going to vote for obama, no matter how unpalatable romney might be. it's the indies, the middle who will decide, just like always. obama said himself that if he didn't fix things, he'd be a one termer. of course he'll run on a four years isn't enough to fix things type campaign, which is correct. but he dug himself that hole, now he'll have to get out of it.

People think that the Indy's will be the determining factor but that assumes that the party lines will be balanced which they may not be. In other words the people who don't show up to vote will be as important as those who do. Far left liberals are as vindicitve as they are idealistic (it doesnt matter for the purposes of this post that most of those ideas are wrong). If they think that they have been wronged by Obama(which a whole lot of them do) they may rather not show up to vote which will be a huge loss for O. I have a feeling that the Right will be far more motivated to show up though I suppose that the loser of the last election will usually be. If a far greater percentage of rigties show up than lefties than winning the indy vote is less important and it is hard to imagine that it wont be close to an even split right now considering the direction of the country and the weakness of the GOP contender

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Hold on now....I thought OWS was non-partisan????

Based on your comment they are not only not non-partisan but arent particularly lucid either.

Sigh ....

Originally Posted by Riot
OWS type activists and the Dem base are already focused on downticket races and taking back the House (and expanding Senate) in a 1964 type sweep.

Yes. OWS type activists are focused on downticket races, getting the best candidate that meets Occupy values in. Not on getting Obama re-elected. Yes, Occupy is non-partisan, looking closely at individual candidates. There are plenty of Dems that will be primaried, or not supported, due to their views. Some Dems (like Warren) will be strongly supported. No Republicans will be. Plenty of support for Ron Paul in Occupy.

Yes. The Dem base are already focused on downticket races and taking back the House (and expanding Senate) in a 1964 type Democratic sweep.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Riot

Sigh ....



Yes. OWS type activists are focused on downticket races, getting the best candidate that meets Occupy values in. Not on getting Obama re-elected. Yes, Occupy is non-partisan, looking closely at individual candidates. There are plenty of Dems that will be primaried, or not supported, due to their views. Some Dems (like Warren) will be supported. No Republicans will be. Plenty of support for Ron Paul in Occupy.

Yes. The Dem base are already focused on downticket races and taking back the House (and expanding Senate) in a 1964 type Democratic sweep.

uh what?

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

uh what?

Uh ... it's not based upon party affiliation, but on what the candidate stands for, and what their actual record is regarding lobbying money, etc.

Like this part you didn't highlight: There are plenty of Dems that will be primaried, or not supported, due to their views.

I know that for folks like you, that view the political parties like sports teams, where the opponent can never, ever, EVER be supported, no matter what, it's hard to understand voting for candidates NOT based upon political party, but upon their actions and record.

[Riot]

Four important states, Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, have extremely unpopular Republican governors who are undergoing attack and recall of themselves and their policies. Florida has the most unpopular Gov. in the country. Wis. Gov. is on the verge of undergoing a recall election. All this will help the Dems in 2012.

Obama is currently winning in South Carolina polling against Gingrich and Romney.

Rep. Gov Nikki Haley has just been found (this week) to have withheld FOIA requests that reveal she's privately deliberately blocked ACA health care implementation in her state.

There's a long way to go, but characterizing Obama as a terrible president is pretty premature and doesn't hold up well outside of conservaland (killed bin Laden, eliminated most of al Quaeda, ended war in Iraq, drawing down in Afghanistan, saved the auto industry, millions receiving benefits of health care law changes) - especially against a Republican House that has the lowest ever popularity rating. The public knows Obama inherited alot of this mess, and knows the Congress and Senate haven't done a thing to help him.

Some of this weeks other poll numbers:

NATIONAL (AP/GfK): Obama d. Romney (47-46); Obama d. Gingrich (51-42)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Gingrich (49-39)

NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama d. Romney (48-40); Obama d. Gingrich (51-38); Obama d. Perry (50-37)

NATIONAL (YouGov/Economist): Obama d. Romney (46-43); Obama d. Gingrich (48-39); Obama d. Paul (47-40)

CALIFORNIA (PPIC): Obama d. Generic Republican (50-38)

VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (48-42); Obama d. Gingrich (50-43); Obama d. Paul (48-40); Obama d. Perry (51-41); Obama d. Bachmann (52-39)

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Riot

Four important states, Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, have extremely unpopular Republican governors who are undergoing attack and recall of themselves and their policies. Florida has the most unpopular Gov. in the country. Wis. Gov. is on the verge of undergoing a recall election. All this will help the Dems in 2012.

Obama is currently winning in South Carolina polling against Gingrich and Romney.

Rep. Gov Nikki Haley has just been found (this week) to have withheld FOIA requests that reveal she's privately deliberately blocked ACA health care implementation in her state.

There's a long way to go, but characterizing Obama as a terrible president is pretty premature and doesn't hold up well outside of conservaland (killed bin Laden, eliminated most of al Quaeda, ended war in Iraq, drawing down in Afghanistan, saved the auto industry, millions receiving benefits of health care law changes) - especially against a Republican House that has the lowest ever popularity rating. The public knows Obama inherited alot of this mess, and knows the Congress and Senate haven't done a thing to help him.

Some of this weeks other poll numbers:

NATIONAL (AP/GfK): Obama d. Romney (47-46); Obama d. Gingrich (51-42)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Gingrich (49-39)

NATIONAL (Reuters/Ipsos): Obama d. Romney (48-40); Obama d. Gingrich (51-38); Obama d. Perry (50-37)

NATIONAL (YouGov/Economist): Obama d. Romney (46-43); Obama d. Gingrich (48-39); Obama d. Paul (47-40)

CALIFORNIA (PPIC): Obama d. Generic Republican (50-38)

VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (48-42); Obama d. Gingrich (50-43); Obama d. Paul (48-40); Obama d. Perry (51-41); Obama d. Bachmann (52-39)

He has zero shot v. Huntsman. Complete landslide and I hope that the party can see that when the time comes.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

He has zero shot v. Huntsman. Complete landslide and I hope that the party can see that when the time comes.

I think Huntsman would be the best challenger. He's inched into double digits in New Hampshire.

I still wish Ron Paul would do well - this is the best he's ever done, in his lifetime campaign of running for Pres.

I think this is going to be a weird election, with the top of the ticket separated from the downticket races. Obama has already tried out his stump speech in Kansas, though, and it was stunning.

[hi_im_god]

btw: the futures also put the likelyhood of a republican senate after the 2012 election at 75% and a republican house at 73.9%..

[Riot]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

btw: the futures also put the likelyhood of a republican senate after the 2012 election at 90%.

That's always been very strong at Intrade, but goes completely against what seems to be unrolling in the field. However, it's very fluid, the polling in the field goes up and down weekly. And you are right that Intrade is usually very accurate.

BTW, Elizabeth Warren appears to be rolling in Mass, to return that one Sen. seat Dem.

At the state level, the GOP is terribly unpopular, but at the national level, the middle class is gone with 1 in 2 living at or above poverty. The public loves Obama personally, but his approval is low. But every single other metric - Congress, other candidates - is lower than Obama.

Very roiled.

[hi_im_god]

future's predict republican nominee:

romney 60.3%
gingrich 19.4%
paul 7.7%
huntsman 6.2%
perry 4.0%
bachman 1.4%
santorum 0.8%

[Riot]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

btw: the futures also put the likelyhood of a republican senate after the 2012 election at 75% and a republican house at 73.9%..

What's the Senate? (says 90% above ... )

[Riot]

Maddow reported yesterday that someone is paying to phone poll Jeb Bush against Romney and Gingrich in New Hampshire .... might want to take a Jeb Bush longshot