2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Working regularly - just looked up.

Right now, they are considering the Spectacular Bid at Gulfstream in December.

[Gaelic Storm]

I would take a stab with Stirred Up for Baffert, he hasn't worked since the end of August. Zito has Saint Honore.

[Calzone Lord]

2-year-old champions from '71 to '78

'71: Riva Ridge (won Ky Derby following year)

'72: Secretariat (won Ky Derby following year)

'73: Protagonist (did not race at age 3)

'74: Foolish Pleasure (won Ky Derby following year)

'75: Honest Pleasure (2nd by 1 length at 2-to-5 odds in Ky Derby)

'76: Seattle Slew (won Ky Derby following year)

'77: Affirmed (won KY Derby following year)

'78: Spectacular Bid (won Ky Derby following year)


Over this 8-year stretch ... the 2yo champion made 7 starts in the Kentucky Derby with a record of six wins and one second place finish.

The two non-2yo champions who won the Derby -- were Cannonade and Bold Forbes. Cannonade was a multiple Graded Stakes winner at age 2. Bold Forbes was a champion 2yo in Puerto Rico -- he also won the Saratoga Special at age 2 and Len Ragozin called him one of the fastest 2yo's ever in his book 'The Odds Must Be Crazy'

Those days are probably gone forever. Anyone who tried to make sense of the abortion that was the 3yo crop leading into the Derby through the prep season this year was basically made to look like a monkey.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Right now, they are considering the Spectacular Bid at Gulfstream in December.

Thanks

[parsixfarms]

An under the radar horse that I'll want to follow is Arborville. Good-looking and expensive 2YO ($200K is a huge price for a Forest Grove) purchase by Cella broke maiden first out at Laurel at end of September, but has not worked since. Cella bought yearling half-sister by Southern Image at Timonium sale for $70K about 10 days later, suggesting they like the brother. Will presumably be on the Arkansas path to Louisville, if he pans out.

[lemoncrush]

I was in Vegas over the weekend, and stared blankly at the Wynn future book odds for about 15 minutes.
Usually, I have some good ideas at this point, and have already made a few future wagers.

But this year more than ever, I think it's possible we haven't seen the Derby winner yet.

The only horse I was considering was B Shanny, but couldn't remember how serious his injury was. He was around 100-1, I think.

[Rudeboyelvis]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/fw/bris_library/Index

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

'73: Protagonist (did not race at age 3)

Not that it changes anything, but Protagonist did run at 3. In fact he was in the prep race won by Cannonade right before the Derby.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will book any bet that any one seeks to make from that list. Future wagers are the biggest sucker bet in racing.

Paul

i've reported you to the f.b.i.

sincerely,

repent.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I was in Vegas over the weekend, and stared blankly at the Wynn future book odds for about 15 minutes.
Usually, I have some good ideas at this point, and have already made a few future wagers.

But this year more than ever, I think it's possible we haven't seen the Derby winner yet.

The only horse I was considering was B Shanny, but couldn't remember how serious his injury was. He was around 100-1, I think.

He is slow, really slow. I would not take 500-1 on him.

[philcski]

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by philcski

There used to be a LOT of value in future bets. However, in '04, when Smarty Jones won, the books took an absolute BEATING (he was 200-1 in late December and still 150-1 in February) and ever since then even horses breaking their maidens in fast times at far-flung locations have odds less than 100-1.

Horses breaking their maidens in fast times at this time of year, or later, rarely are any sort of factor at all.

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

Agreed. . . that's about half his fair odds at best.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Horses breaking their maidens in fast times at this time of year, or later, rarely are any sort of factor at all.

Tector getting Liaison at 75/1 is pretty damn good if you ask me.

In the last 14 Kentucky Derbies, of the 42 possible placings, over half (23) were filled by horses breaking their maidens on or after October 18.

[RockHardTen1985]

Its all apples and oranges if you ask me. Who can really make a line now, 7 months out? Im not sure how anyone can project what is fair and not fair.
Liason for example at 75-1, I really have no clue about that. If he wins the Grade 1 coming up at Hollywood what will his odds be? He should be favored to win that race, so maybe 75-1 is value.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Really? Ignore who his sire is and he hasn't exactly run a good race yet. Seems pretty low at this point based on what he has shown on the track.

His sire has nothing to do with why I think he's a legit derby contender. It is a reason I'm a fan of the horse, but I am able to keep those two seperate.

I think his first race was very promising, and believe it or not, I found encouragement from his win the other day.

I am not saying he's the next Secretariat. Just that I think he's one of the three or four most promising 2yos I've seen this crop, in the context of being a derby threat (based on distance ability, he's very green and still running well, etc.).

I don't think he's the type of horse that needs to run big numbers right now.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

In the last 14 Kentucky Derbies, of the 42 possible placings, over half (23) were filled by horses breaking their maidens on or after October 18.

Yes, but with lights out performances in their maiden wins?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

His sire has nothing to do with why I think he's a legit derby contender. It is a reason I'm a fan of the horse, but I am able to keep those two seperate.

I think his first race was very promising, and believe it or not, I found encouragement from his win the other day.

I am not saying he's the next Secretariat. Just that I think he's one of the three or four most promising 2yos I've seen this crop, in the context of being a derby threat (based on distance ability, he's very green and still running well, etc.).

I don't think he's the type of horse that needs to run big numbers right now.

Legit Derby contender or not, 75-1 seems like an underlay on him at this point in time in my opinion.

No offense intended, but I don't think you are able to separate your being a fan and how you rate horses. If this horse had a different sire you wouldn't be nearly as interested in him as you are.

[tector]

We'll know more when he has a meaningful race on dirt.

By the way, to whomever thought value=absolutely huge odds (seemingly regardless to which animal they were attached), there are many horses still at 150-1 and up:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...11-14-Wynn.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/14, so it reflects the racing last weekend.

Plainly, however, I should have done more research, since I now find out Luckys had KD futures up too:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...-10-Luckys.pdf

Note this is updated through 11/10, so it does NOT reflect last weekend's racing.

I found the link to Luckys here:

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.html