2012 Kentucky Derby future book odds
 

So, here I am on my last day in Vegas thinking I might take stab on some KD futures. The last time I did, 2009, I had Eskenderya at 100-1, along with a couple of other horses.

I took a small piece of Take Charge Indy ($30) about an hour before the Juvenile just in case. Now I am open to suggestions since I am truly flustered this year.

Here were the odds at the Wynn (where I am staying--actually the Encore) as of October 25:

http://www.brisnet.com/php/fw/bris_l...erby111024.pdf

Take Spring to the Sky at 300-1. . . I don't know anything about his current state, but if he's healthy, he'll make some serious noise on the Derby trail. I also like Launch Commander a lot at 275-1.

Working regularly - just looked up.

If Motor City is 225-1 I'd have to take a bit of that.

I am sure he is not--the Iriquois was after the 25th.

No idea here.

Creative Cause might be worth a gamble if he gets sold and a move-up artist trainer takes over. His current trainer has very shabby numbers.

I haven't looked at the odds yet to see his price, though.

Only 18/1. Second choice after Union Rags.

Liaison at 75/1 is worth a few bucks.

I know I'm predisposed to liking progeny of his sire, but he strikes me as a horse that really will want to go 10f and has the style that often wins the Derby.

What do you like about this horse? Street Sense CD????

Not being sold either because he has already said that Creative Cause is a replacement stallion for Swiss Yolder

Id take a flyer on Optimizer at 175/1. Wasnt great but wasnt horrible. Hopefully D Wayne will put him on the trail, win a race as a 3 yr old, then run avg races in the Derby preps. THEN BOOM another D wayne bomb in a big race.

That's crazy talk.

Haha. Wow. I'd give you 175,000-1.

I wouldn't even take that.

His dirt races have been decidedly better than his synthetic races, he's in the hands of a trainer who never has success with 2YOs, he is a winner over the track and we're talking about 125-1 not 10-1.

I will book any bet that any one seeks to make from that list. Future wagers are the biggest sucker bet in racing.

Paul

In general I agree, but I think you can still find value--you just have to look much, much harder for it.

You can find value and some will do so. But most are just throwing away their money. Take Charge Indy, who was the first horse discussed in this thread was 25-1 to win a race last week. Now, people will take him at 75-1 to win a race next year?

The books clean up on future bets for a reason...

Paul

Right - I probably wouldn't take a horse at less than 200-1 at this point. There's value on the unexposed types.

Oh, I don't know. I got Congaree around 150/1, in like January. Yeah, he didn't win, but I feel that that was a pretty smart bet.