Breeders Cup Handicapping Thoughts.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Getting deep into day two handicapping now - Wrote has a huge chance in the Juv. Turf. . . victim of a patented Spencer ride last time.

Like the filly version of this event, this is clearly a spread race. With so many places to go, it seems like a good idea to start with the Euros. I want no part of exposed sprinter Caspar Netscher and, while he's got a shot and is certainly one to use, Farraaj seems to be a wise guy horse from what I've read and heard. Wrote is very interesting--or at least as interesting as a horse can be in an inscrutable race that anyone can win. I loved his performance to be third last time in the G2 Royal Lodge over Newmarket's Rowley Mile behind stablemate and Juvenile contender Daddy Long Legs. He was last early behind what seemed to be a slow pace set by his Ballydoyle buddy and, when producing his run, was inexplicably guided towards a blocked rail before being taken back outside by Jamie Spencer. He loomed ominously before tailing off a bit late, but the final furlong of that course is uphill (granted, the previous furlong is downhill), so going from a mile there to a mile at Churchill Downs could almost be considered a turn back. He gives the impression of a horse that will love a firm American turf course, and trainer Aidan O'Brien is having a huge year Stateside after suffering from an extended rough patch previously. I'm expecting a breakout performance from Wrote, and doubt any American horse can hang with him if he runs that sort of race.