Breeders Cup Handicapping Thoughts.

[ateamstupid]

Friday (passing on the Juvy Sprint and JF Turf):

Filly & Mare Sprint
Turbulent Descent has one race that would win this and seven that would most likely leave her off the board. She's never been campaigned like a sound horse, and off of three months on the bench, in her first start against elders, she's a horrendous bet at anything close to 6-5. Obviously she can win, but she's the least trustworthy favorite in the entire Cup to me. Switch is the one to beat. She's pretty clearly a better horse on dirt than synthetic and she seems better around one turn than two. This is her game. Pomeroys Pistol was rock solid this summer and draws outside the other speeds (Tar Heel Mom and Golden Mystery, perhaps Champagne d'Oro as well). She was no match for TD in the Test, but unlike that one, she since came back with a bang-up race as a prep. Only major concern is that her only bad race at three came at Churchill. Tar Heel Mom and Tamarind Hall have both run multiple races fast enough to win this, but both have tailed off in their last two starts. I'll throw them both in on the hope that one of them will run back to her peak form at 12-1+ and because I don't like TD. Tanda's only dirt start was a good one, and she appears to be in good form, so she can hit the board at a price and maybe even take the top prize if a few others don't show up.

Juvenile Fillies
I tried pretty hard, but it's tough for me to get past the two favorites in this. My Miss Aurelia is far and away the fastest horse in the race and if she's able to sit just a few lengths off the lead, she'll be extremely difficult to beat. Grace Hall's Spinaway and subsequent two-turn prep/paid workout were both super, and Tony Dutrow's having an incredible year. If either of them bring their best, no one else can win. On the off chance neither of them fires, I'll run small backups through Candrea, Miss Netta and Weemissfrankie.

Filly & Mare Turf
Stacelita is the only American-based horse who has a realistic shot of beating the Europeans in here. I understand that these aren't the strongest Euro fillies we've seen in this race, but you have to think Nahrain still has upside to tap, and taking the Prix de l'Opera, even if it was a subpar running, in her fourth career start, is an impressive feat. Misty for Me crushed Midday two races back, albeit with a 12-pound weight break, and she's unlikely to face much early pressure in here. The distance is a bit of a concern, but Ryan Moore should be able to clear relatively easily and throw out the anchor to try to nurse her around the course. Announce is probably the weakest of the three Euros, but she handled Stacelita pretty easily in that one's last race overseas. Dubawi Heights has turned into a useful American grass filly and should benefit from easy early fractions. She'll be my lone C. Aruna has avoided the top turf girls this year and is questionable at ten furlongs, let alone 11.

Ladies' Classic
Like many others, I'm on the Royal Delta train. She has the most raw talent of any three-year-old filly in the country, and probably would have locked up the Eclipse already had it not been for physical issues. Now she's at the top of her game, and Mott is one of the best at bringing horses along to peak for the big races in the summer/fall. She has enough tactical speed to stay close to what I think will be a slow pace and should be tough to hold off. It's Tricky seems like the forgotten horse amongst the sophomore fillies, but she's had a very strong year and really was given no chance last time out being taken back to fourth over a speed-favoring track. Her Acorn and CCA Oaks are good enough to win this and she should get a good trip. Plum Pretty is a bet-against at 2-1, but I'm hesitant to toss her completely, as it seems like she and Ask the Moon have this field at their mercy pace-wise. The Oaks she won was one of the weaker runnings and she was given a huge boost by the track in her freakish effort last time, but she's not so far off the top two that she's a total throwout. Ask the Moon is the one to catch and has run a few races fast enough to win this, but those were two pathetic Grade 1's she stole at Saratoga and I don't think she'll be a match for the three-year-olds in here. Ultra Blend is a quality mare, but if she couldn't outclose Zazu with a perfect trip last time, I don't see how she's going to handle Royal Delta behind slower fractions. Royal Delta is my A, It's Tricky a B, and Plum Pretty and Ask the Moon are C's who would get upgraded to B's if the track is playing kindly to speed.

Saturday (passing on the Marathon):

Juvenile Turf
Finale is obviously the horse to beat, but his draw is crap and he has a nasty habit of breaking a step or two slow (he's done it in every race but his maiden win). You can get away with that in a six/seven/eight-horse field, but with 13 other horses, including speed to his inside (Excaper) and outside (State of Play, Tequila Factor), that could be costly. There are two interesting Euros in here, Farraaj and Wrote, both of whom most recently ran a few lengths behind promising two-year-olds that would've drowned this field. The former is a versatile runner whose last two races make him dangerous in here, the latter is improving and ran well despite a troubled trip in the Royal Lodge. I see no reason why Excaper can't be a threat again at an overlaid price. He looked Finale in the eye in the Summer and re-rallied to fight him tooth and nail to the wire. The pace may prove more difficult to overcome in here, but I prefer him to anybody out of the weak Bourbon, all of whom will be half the price. It will probably be tough for Majestic City to win a race of this caliber in his first run on the grass, but I was too impressed with his Futurity to exclude him. He did pretty much all the heavy lifting in contesting a sizzling pace, likely moved too early and was narrowly run down by Dullahan late. Shkspeare Shaliyah has run well three straight times despite three different pace scenarios and Shakespeare is off to predictably a great start as a turf sire. Connections showed a ton of confidence in him by ponying up the $100k to supplement him for this and I'll toss him at what should be a square price. Caspar Netscher is the fastest horse on paper, but there's a reason he was kept at six furlongs in England, and asking a specialist like him to deal with two turns after he's been running on straightaways his whole career is a recipe for an off the board finish.

Sprint
Big Drama might indeed be good enough to win this off just one slow race since January, but it's an absolute must that you bet against him as the favorite in here. Jackson Bend is the horse to beat and he's in razor sharp form, but there's a bit of a question as to whether six furlongs may be a tad short for him. The top two finishers from the Vosburgh are the other two I'm using. Giant Ryan has has had a great year and unless he gets stuck in a pace duel, his regular race puts him in contention as long as Big Drama doesn't run his A race. Force Freeze has run two huge races since returning from Dubai, where he was wasted for three years. He was a seriously fast three-year-old, so it's not like his last two came out of nowhere. Those are the four for me, but this is one of the more wide open Sprints I can remember and the pace scenario is murky, so I'll be tossing in Euroears and Amazombie as C's as well.

Turf Sprint
I'm probably crazy, but I'm singling Regally Ready in here. He ran some incredibly fast turf sprints over the winter and spring, and both of his Churchill races would blow the doors off this field. He was obviously disappointing in the Monmouth race after the freshening, but then he was given no chance in the Turf Monster and I thought his Nearctic win was outstanding. I get that the figure came back a little light, but if you look at what was behind him, it was a seriously quality group. Bated Breath is an top class turf sprinter in England and several other runners in the Nearctic ran numbers well below their capabilities without major excuses. Some of that can surely be attributed to the yielding turf, but these numbers will likely prove to be deflated because of the conditions. Winning a race of that quality suggests to me that RR is back to his top form, which would beat this mediocre field pretty easily. Obviously 3-1 is no bargain on anybody in a race like this, but he'll go off significantly higher than that in the pick four, and I'm going to take a stand with him. I'll back up with California Flag, Havelock and Chamberlain Bridge as C's. I really don't understand what the hell Caracortado is doing in this race, but he's sure to pull a good deal of money away from horses who can actually win.

Dirt Mile
If Trappe Shot can reproduce any of his summer sprint races, he'll bury this field, and even his Vosburgh was pretty good, but this is a curious placement for him and he may struggle to adapt to the dynamics of a one-turn mile after four straight six-furlong sprints. He's clearly the horse to beat, but I'll include a few others just in case there's something behind KMc opting for the smaller purse. Caleb's Posse ran two huge races at Saratoga before foolishly being sent around two turns again in the Indiana Derby. Wilburn is a typical late developing Asmussen three-year-old who probably will be overbet, but he should sit a good trip from midpack and his figures make him competitive. I'll also take a stab with Jersey Town, whose Cigar Mile win would probably get him in the winner's circle should he run back to it. I thought he ran well in the Forego and then he got stuck chasing a loose Uncle Mo through the mud last time out. I'm against The Factor, who still hasn't shown the ability to rate successfully and Shackleford, who had his lunch eaten by Wilburn and has been a disappointment since the Preakness.

I'll get to the last four races tomorrow.