6/11 (BEL): Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I particularly like the way they say they're going to point for races like the Travers instead of the Belmont...as if asking a horse to run in both would be insane. Never mind that a whole lot of Travers winners in recent years (Lemon Drop Kid, Point Given, Medaglia Doro, Ten Most Wanted, Birdstone, Summer Bird, etc) were all Belmont Stakes participants.

All those horses you noted also ran in the Kentucky Derby. Alternation was only making his 2nd stakes appearance in the Peter Pan.

Coming in off that Peter Pan performance, the Belmont would seem to come at a perfect time for him. It makes no sense to me whatsoever.

In the last 18 runnings of the Peter Pan since the great A.P. Indy in '92, no winner of the race has gone on to win the Belmont. And only upsetter Coastal and Woody Stephens-trained Danzig Connection were winners of both in the preceding decades.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

All those horses you noted also ran in the Kentucky Derby. Alternation was only making his 2nd stakes appearance in the Peter Pan.

In the last 18 runnings of the Peter Pan since the great A.P. Indy in '92, no winner of the race has gone on to win the Belmont. And only upsetter Coastal and Woody Stephens-trained Danzig Connection were winners of both in the preceding decades.

Well, this 'splains it!

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Well, this 'splains it!

I think you can argue it either way. Alternation has a similar career arc as Summer Bird, Twining, Oratory, Virginia Rapids, Colonial Affair, Unshaded, Composer, etc. Some of those ran well in the Belmont, some ran terrible, still others skipped the race entirely.

As long as he shows up for races like the Dwyer, Haskell, Jim Dandy, and Travers, I wouldn't fault the connections for this move.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think you can argue it either way. Alternation has a similar career arc as Summer Bird, Twining, Oratory, Virginia Rapids, Colonial Affair, Unshaded, Composer, etc. Some of those ran well in the Belmont, some ran terrible, still others skipped the race entirely.

As long as he shows up for races like the Dwyer, Haskell, Jim Dandy, and Travers, I wouldn't fault the connections for this move.

I don't know... with this crop, his recent win, distance breeding etc., I don't think you skip the race. I'd roll the dice and hope I'm Colonial Affair instead of Composer any day of the week. No guarantee you're in good form/health come late July. Not to mention it's the Belmont Stakes.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

All those horses you noted also ran in the Kentucky Derby. Alternation was only making his 2nd stakes appearance in the Peter Pan.

So your argument is that horses that run in the Belmont Stakes can also win the Travers if they ran in the Kentucky Derby.
But....
If they didn't run in the Kentucky Derby, then running in the Belmont would ruin their chances of winning the Travers?

That doesn't make any sense to me.

Personally I don't think the horse is a particularly likely winner of either the Belmont or the Travers, but I don't see how running in this race would negatively affect his chances to win the Travers.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

So your argument is that horses that run in the Belmont Stakes can also win the Travers if they ran in the Kentucky Derby.
But....
If they didn't run in the Kentucky Derby, then running in the Belmont would ruin their chances of winning the Travers?

Nope.

That doesn't make any sense to me.

The point not literally spelled out with my comment was that Alternation is, relatively speaking, "behind" those other horses (with the possible exception of Summer Bird) in terms of seasoning, particularly in the graded stakes ranks.

Personally I don't think the horse is a particularly likely winner of either the Belmont or the Travers, but I don't see how running in this race would negatively affect his chances to win the Travers.

I wasn't really trying to comment on his ability to win the Travers. I was merely playing Devil's Advocate with regards to skipping the Belmont.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The point not literally spelled out with my comment was that Alternation is, relatively speaking, "behind" those other horses (with the possible exception of Summer Bird) in terms of seasoning, particularly in the graded stakes ranks.

All the more reason to run in the Belmont. The idea of "let's sit our horse on the sidelines because he doesn't have enough seasoning in graded stakes races" is like saying "I don't want to learn to play the guitar because I don't currently know how to play all my favorite songs." Its circular logic.

Also, is his "seasoning" really that far behind Animal Kingdom's....the likely favorite? Haven't they both made the same number of lifetime starts?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

All the more reason to run in the Belmont. The idea of "let's sit our horse on the sidelines because he doesn't have enough seasoning in graded stakes races" is like saying "I don't want to learn to play the guitar because I don't currently know how to play all my favorite songs." Its circular logic.

That is a ridiculous comparison. Why would someone use a mile-and-one-half classic race to develop a horse?

It would be more like: "I'm learning to play the guitar and I'll be filling in for Eddie Van Halen during Van Halen's summer tour to get some experience."

Also, is his "seasoning" really that far behind Animal Kingdom's....the likely favorite? Haven't they both made the same number of lifetime starts?

Animal Kingdom not only ran early during his 2yo year (Alternation broke his maiden in December), but he also has run in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. He has a decided edge on Alternation in terms of experience, regardless of total number of starts.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That is a ridiculous comparison. Why would someone use a mile-and-one-half classic race to develop a horse?

It would be more like: "I'm learning to play the guitar and I'll be filling in for Eddie Van Halen during Van Halen's summer tour to get some experience."

Animal Kingdom not only ran early during his 2yo year (Alternation broke his maiden in December), but he also has run in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. He has a decided edge on Alternation in terms of experience, regardless of total number of starts.

So now....not only does a horse have to have run in the Kentucky Derby for it to make sense to enter the horse in the Belmont, but it also needs to have run "early during his 2yo year."
Your argument makes less sense to me the more you make it.
The horse just won a G2 race and defeated another decent Graded stakes winner in the process. You act like a horse needs to run in a certain number of races or a certain number of graded stakes races to have a shot in a big G1 race. That's just absolutely not the case in the game today.

The connections have apparently made their decision for whatever reason. It seems odd to me, but oh well. Perhaps they agree with you that it would be foolish to enter a horse in a big G1 race in June of his 3yo year because he didn't break his maiden until December of his 2yo year. If so, I think that's a pretty crappy reason.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

So now....not only does a horse have to have run in the Kentucky Derby for it to make sense to enter the horse in the Belmont, but it also needs to have run "early during his 2yo year."

No. You just keep setting up straw men to knock down. You said Alternation wasn't spotting Animal Kingdom any seasoning because they had an equal number of starts. I simply countered that the latter started his racing career months before Alternation.

I certainly didn't claim some sort of magical calendar date after which a horse became ineligible to win the Belmont Stakes.

Your argument makes less sense to me the more you make it.

That's because you're trying to make hard and fast rules based on specifics I note about Alternation's career. The point was that Alternation is slightly behind the current top 3yos, so bypassing the Belmont is hardly a shocking development.

The horse just won a G2 race and defeated another decent Graded stakes winner in the process. You act like a horse needs to run in a certain number of races or a certain number of graded stakes races to have a shot in a big G1 race. That's just absolutely not the case in the game today.

Well, you yourself said that Alternation was unlikely to win the Belmont Stakes. What are some of the reasons that formed that opinion?

The connections have apparently made their decision for whatever reason. It seems odd to me, but oh well. Perhaps they agree with you that it would be foolish to enter a horse in a big G1 race in June of his 3yo year because he didn't break his maiden until December of his 2yo year. If so, I think that's a pretty crappy reason.

If it seems odd its because this is nothing but more straw man arguments.

Maybe the Wizard of Oz or Elton John can help you out. Just follow the yellow brick road.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

In the last 18 runnings of the Peter Pan since the great A.P. Indy in '92, no winner of the race has gone on to win the Belmont. And only upsetter Coastal and Woody Stephens-trained Danzig Connection were winners of both in the preceding decades.

Well of course it doesn't happen very often because the best 3yos are typically in the first two legs of the crown, rather than the Peter Pan. That doesn't change the fact that in terms of timing, its set up as a pretty good prep race for the Belmont.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well of course it doesn't happen very often because the best 3yos are typically in the first two legs of the crown, rather than the Peter Pan. That doesn't change the fact that in terms of timing, its set up as a pretty good prep race for the Belmont.

An even better reason then not to run in the Belmont:

He's probably not good enough.

Would it be foolish to skip the Belmont and run in the Pegasus and/or the Dwyer?

Adios Charlie, a nose back in the Peter Pan, is doing exactly that.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Adios Charlie, a nose back in the Peter Pan, is doing exactly that.

His distance limitations are well defined. It's not that Alternation is a world-beater, but he's a grinder who is bred to go far. Not to mention it won't take much to beat this group, as we've seen all year long.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

His distance limitations are well defined. It's not that Alternation is a world-beater, but he's a grinder who is bred to go far. Not to mention it won't take much to beat this group, as we've seen all year long.

\
please FLIPPO is as disgusted about the skipping the Belmont as any of us are.. You dont skip the Belmont to hope to win the Pegasus

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

His distance limitations are well defined.

I don't think it's quite an open and shut case on Adios Charlie just yet. He's been in the exacta in all 4 starts at 4 different distances. He dusted the subsequent Preakness show horse in his stakes debut. His pedigree is littered with stakes winners at route distances.

Conquistador Cielo and Gone West ran in the Belmont.