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#1
04-30-2011, 04:12 AM
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4/30: Belmont (4th-10th); Churchill (6th-11th)
Made last day playing successful Thursday earning enough on the chalky P4 and P5 conso to cover the bets to go along with a nice sweep of the quality exotics under Keertana in the Bewitch. Keeneland was a fight all three weeks, and I felt lucky to get out around even with the nice hit in the Blue Grass righting many of the stand's wrongs. Hope you did well and are looking forward to attacking the wide variety of quality circuit action that has transitioned. Belmont, Churchill and Hollywood, and to a lesser extent Calder and Delaware, will now move into focus for the run towards summer. Very playable sequences for Belmont's first Saturday, and Opening Night at Churchill, where upwards of 40,000 are expected, should be great fun for those of us that wish to ignore our spouses or families from 6-11:30p.
IMPORTANT PROGRAMMING NOTE! SiriusXM is undergoing a channel reorganization on Wednesday, May 4th, and "At the Races" will move to Sirius 93 and XM 209 as a result.. BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Quite an eye-popping group of unraced sophs in here including Mr. Jerkens' Bold Warrior, a Bernardini out of Hollywood Wildcat and thereby a half to War Chant, Ministers Wild Cat, et al.. Mott returns Don Adams' homebred Caneros to the races for a 3yo bow too, and this chestnut is a Distorted Humor out of the wonderful Kalookan Queen.. And that's just two of the half dozen pedigreed players signed on! Most Likely: #7 Global Power 8-5 WON ($3.20) Best Value: #5 Indigene Charm 8-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Bold Warrior 5-1 2nd Exotics Use: #1a Copy Editor 8-1 6th 5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Lillehammer 4-1 2nd Best Value: #7 Dancing Tiz 5-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Sunny Smiles 7-2 7th Super Add: #5 Beautiful Risk 4-1 WON ($10.40) 6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super) This is a terrific group and you would expect that the next start for the top finishers would likely be in the Woody Stephens in 6 weeks.. Most Likely: #5 Redeemed 5-2 WON ($4.60) Best Value: #8 Vee's Accolade 10-1 2nd Next Best: #9 Cool Blue Red Hot 5-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Dawly 8-1 5th $1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $13.20 $1 Trifecta (5-8-9) Paid $40.00 7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) With this coming off turf, you're somewhat obligated to cover all 4 of these. Very tough to separate.. Most Likely: #12 Show Trial 4-1 2nd Best Value: #1a Sheraguska 8-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Dorian Will 7-2 4th Super Add: #13 All in No Outs 7-2 5th 8th: XLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Quirky group. Going to reach for a few projectable types and try to beat Rice & Mott whom you can cover in multis.. Best Value: #5 Envoyez Vite 5-1 4th Next Best: #3 Moonwalk Beauty 7-2 WON-On DQ ($6.60) Exotics Use: #8 Come a Callin 6-1 7th Super Add: #2 Olive Eye 15-1 2nd 9th: 83rd Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD) Wow.. As discussed Friday on ATR with Nick Tammaro, despite having just 6, this thing came up particularly good and treacherous.. Most Likely: #6 Christmas for Liam 4-1 5th Best Value: #1 Convocation 6-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Haynesfield 9-5 4th 10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super) Brutally tough finish to challenging sequence.. Best Value: #4 Thelampisnotguilty 8-1 9th Next Best: #2 Nutmegcuveeroyale 6-1 WON ($12.80) Exotics Use: #1 Paci Di Notte 12-1 2nd Super Add: #9 What's the Record 3-1 3rd $1 Exacta (2-1) Paid $54.75 $1 Trifecta (2-1-9) Paid $210.75 <$75 P4 Play: 7: 2-3-6-7 8: 2-3-5-8 9: 1-5-6 10: 1-2-4 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 CHURCHILL DOWNS POST-SCRATCHES 4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #5 Berberis 4-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Skylord 3-1 6th Exotics Use: #3 Henry's Time 7-2 3rd Super Add: #7 Chipshot 5-1 WON ($5.80) 6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Time Counts 9-5 2nd Next Best: #7 Vegas Trip 2-1 5th Exotics Use: #5 Ensign's Soul 12-1 3rd 7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #10 Joe Six Pack 5-2 3rd Best Value: #3 Flatter Me Blue 8-1 9th Exotics Use: #2 Young Joe 10-1 10th Super Add: #5 Teeberry 6-1 7th 8th: 87th Derby Trial (G3), 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Travelin Man 7-5 6th Next Best: #5 J J's Lucky Train 7-2 3rd Best Value: #4 Beamer 20-1 7th Super Add: #7 Indian Winter 8-1 4th 9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Ernfold 5-2 5th Best Value: #4 Pearly Blue 8-1 7th Next Best: #3 SCR Super Add: #5 Oregon Lady 4-1 WON ($7.80) 10th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #10 Needadrink 5-2 2nd Best Value: #6 Gripey Sarah 15-1 7th Exotics Use: #4 Knock Out Princess 8-1 4th Super Add: #1 Need an Angel 10-1 WON ($12.80) 11th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5) Most Likely: #5 Cool Lion 3-1 - Best Value: #2 Dancing Don 6-1 5th Next Best: #7 Atlantic Paws 4-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Squander 5-2 4th Hi-5 Play: #9 Babu 6-1 WON ($14.00) <$75 P5 Play: 7: 2-3-5-10 8: 2-4-5 9: 4-8 10: 4-6-10 11: 2-5 4x3x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 <$50 P4 Play: 8: 2-4-5-7 9: 3-4-5-8 10: 4-6-10 11: 2-5 4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 04-30-2011 at 10:37 PM. 
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#4
04-30-2011, 10:06 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
04-30-2011, 02:52 PM
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your pick 5 has 6 races....are your selections still the same for the final 5?
<$50 P5 Play: 6: 2-7 7: 2-3-10-14 8: 2-4-5 9: 4-8 10: 10 11: 2-5 2x4x3x2x1x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
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#6
04-30-2011, 03:30 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#7
04-30-2011, 03:37 PM
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Quote:
Thx.. Made adjustments anyway post-SCR.. G/L!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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