Derby Trail Forums - 4/30: Belmont (4th-10th); Churchill (6th-11th)

Made last day playing successful Thursday earning enough on the chalky P4 and P5 conso to cover the bets to go along with a nice sweep of the quality exotics under Keertana in the Bewitch. Keeneland was a fight all three weeks, and I felt lucky to get out around even with the nice hit in the Blue Grass righting many of the stand's wrongs. Hope you did well and are looking forward to attacking the wide variety of quality circuit action that has transitioned. Belmont, Churchill and Hollywood, and to a lesser extent Calder and Delaware, will now move into focus for the run towards summer. Very playable sequences for Belmont's first Saturday, and Opening Night at Churchill, where upwards of 40,000 are expected, should be great fun for those of us that wish to ignore our spouses or families from 6-11:30p.

IMPORTANT PROGRAMMING NOTE! SiriusXM is undergoing a channel reorganization on Wednesday, May 4th, and "At the Races" will move to Sirius 93 and XM 209 as a result..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Quite an eye-popping group of unraced sophs in here including Mr. Jerkens' Bold Warrior, a Bernardini out of Hollywood Wildcat and thereby a half to War Chant, Ministers Wild Cat, et al.. Mott returns Don Adams' homebred Caneros to the races for a 3yo bow too, and this chestnut is a Distorted Humor out of the wonderful Kalookan Queen.. And that's just two of the half dozen pedigreed players signed on!

Most Likely: #7 Global Power 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #5 Indigene Charm 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Bold Warrior 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1a Copy Editor 8-1 6th

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Lillehammer 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Dancing Tiz 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Sunny Smiles 7-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Beautiful Risk 4-1 WON ($10.40)

6th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

This is a terrific group and you would expect that the next start for the top finishers would likely be in the Woody Stephens in 6 weeks..

Most Likely: #5 Redeemed 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #8 Vee's Accolade 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Cool Blue Red Hot 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Dawly 8-1 5th

$1 Exacta (5-8) Paid $13.20
$1 Trifecta (5-8-9) Paid $40.00

7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

With this coming off turf, you're somewhat obligated to cover all 4 of these. Very tough to separate..

Most Likely: #12 Show Trial 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1a Sheraguska 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Dorian Will 7-2 4th
Super Add: #13 All in No Outs 7-2 5th

8th: XLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Quirky group. Going to reach for a few projectable types and try to beat Rice & Mott whom you can cover in multis..

Best Value: #5 Envoyez Vite 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Moonwalk Beauty 7-2 WON-On DQ ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Come a Callin 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Olive Eye 15-1 2nd

9th: 83rd Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD)

Wow.. As discussed Friday on ATR with Nick Tammaro, despite having just 6, this thing came up particularly good and treacherous..

Most Likely: #6 Christmas for Liam 4-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Convocation 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Haynesfield 9-5 4th

10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Brutally tough finish to challenging sequence..

Best Value: #4 Thelampisnotguilty 8-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Nutmegcuveeroyale 6-1 WON ($12.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Paci Di Notte 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 What's the Record 3-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (2-1) Paid $54.75
$1 Trifecta (2-1-9) Paid $210.75

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-7
8: 2-3-5-8
9: 1-5-6
10: 1-2-4

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Berberis 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Skylord 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Henry's Time 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Chipshot 5-1 WON ($5.80)

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Time Counts 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Vegas Trip 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Ensign's Soul 12-1 3rd

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Joe Six Pack 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Flatter Me Blue 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Young Joe 10-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Teeberry 6-1 7th

8th: 87th Derby Trial (G3), 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Travelin Man 7-5 6th
Next Best: #5 J J's Lucky Train 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Beamer 20-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Indian Winter 8-1 4th

9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Ernfold 5-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Pearly Blue 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 SCR
Super Add: #5 Oregon Lady 4-1 WON ($7.80)

10th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Needadrink 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Gripey Sarah 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Knock Out Princess 8-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Need an Angel 10-1 WON ($12.80)

11th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Cool Lion 3-1 -
Best Value: #2 Dancing Don 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Atlantic Paws 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Squander 5-2 4th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Babu 6-1 WON ($14.00)

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 2-3-5-10
8: 2-4-5
9: 4-8
10: 4-6-10
11: 2-5

4x3x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 2-4-5-7
9: 3-4-5-8
10: 4-6-10
11: 2-5

4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve