Jerry Brown on Maclean's Music

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

People like Justin Dew (I'm going to be kind and pretend like he knows a little bit about this subject) love to call out Beyer for occasionally cutting a race loose - or splitting a variant.


And obviously - I disagree with Beyer's decisions sometimes as well.

A) Hey! How did I get dragged into this? I though you quit DT.

B) My problem is summed up in your final sentence. There are too many "decisions" that go into assigning speed figures. They like to call it "a science with a little bit of art sprinkled in". That's BS. If there is any art to it, it's not a science.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

My problem is summed up in your final sentence. There are too many "decisions" that go into assigning speed figures.

These "decisions" and differences often clear up in hindsight. That's why Formulator is so great - and why all commerical figure makers don't hammer out the same thing together just days after a race.

I guess you could always take the Bruno DeTardio stance ... and spout off with stuff like 'speed figures are for morons. Anyone who can't see that Brethren is a great 3-year-old is just another Beyer couch jockey' just two weeks before he gets embarassed with no real legit excuse in the Tampa Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

These "decisions" and differences often clear up in hindsight. That's why Formulator is so great - and why all commerical figure makers don't hammer out the same thing together just days after a race.

I guess you could always take the Bruno DeTardio stance ... and spout off with stuff like 'speed figures are for morons. Anyone who can't see that Brethren is a great 3-year-old is just another Beyer couch jockey' just two weeks before he gets embarassed with no real legit excuse in the Tampa Derby.

He had a legit excuse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He had a legit excuse.

What - you bet on him?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What - you bet on him?

No.

He's not very good.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

These "decisions" and differences often clear up in hindsight. That's why Formulator is so great - and why all commerical figure makers don't hammer out the same thing together just days after a race.

I guess you could always take the Bruno DeTardio stance ... and spout off with stuff like 'speed figures are for morons. Anyone who can't see that Brethren is a great 3-year-old is just another Beyer couch jockey' just two weeks before he gets embarassed with no real legit excuse in the Tampa Derby.

By "clear up in hindsight", I assume you are talking about changing a Beyer weeks after it is earned after the horse in question, who was assigned a 97 for his 2nd place effort, races again and earns a 72, then another 72, and the original 97 is changed to a 91.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

By "clear up in hindsight", I assume you are talking about changing a Beyer weeks after it is earned after the horse in question, who was assigned a 97 for his 2nd place effort, races again and earns a 72, then another 72, and the original 97 is changed to a 91.

The scenerio you mentioned probably never happened before in 20 years since they've been published - at least not to that kind of extreme.

IMO - numbers are tweaked in hindsight far, far, far, less often than I think they should be.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The scenerio you mentioned probably never happened before in 20 years since they've been published - at least not to that kind of extreme.

IMO - numbers are tweaked in hindsight far, far, far, less often than I think they should be.

Are you suggesting that a horse's Beyer has never been adjusted downward by 6 points or more after a subsequent start by him or another horse?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

Are you suggesting that a horse's Beyer has never been adjusted downward by 6 points or more after a subsequent start by him or another horse?

If you adjust a horse six points - you have to adjust the rest of the field with him. For instance - The Factor's maiden win was raised from a 102 to 108 a few weeks later. That was before he ever started again.

These type of moves often come on tricky days - and often on days that can probably be explained by wind ... for instance 5f 2yo races at Belmont when a lot of the other sprints on the card are elongated sprints. Or days when only one route race is carded ... and the field consists of a lot of lightly raced horses.

I certainly doubt it ever has become adjusted solely because a beaten horse regressed 25 points over and over. In that example, the horse probably went from Rick Dutrow to Jeff Odintz ... or is off-form because of a nagging physical issue that has surfaced.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

These "decisions" and differences often clear up in hindsight. That's why Formulator is so great - and why all commerical figure makers don't hammer out the same thing together just days after a race.

I guess you could always take the Bruno DeTardio stance ... and spout off with stuff like 'speed figures are for morons. Anyone who can't see that Brethren is a great 3-year-old is just another Beyer couch jockey' just two weeks before he gets embarassed with no real legit excuse in the Tampa Derby.

On Brown, and I like Jerry, his ground is immediately shaky with the 4th finisher, the first to hit the wire with a prior start, pretty much duplicating his debut figure. But, he's a smart guy, so we can't just dismiss him out of hand.

On the person you mentioned in this post.....has he admitted his foolishness or squirmed away like so many that say such idiocy?

What's funny is that Mig and I had that disagreement on the air after the Sam Davis, though without him being idioctically dismissive of figs, but after the Tampa Bay Derby he said on air that he was wrong. We're all wrong a lot of the time....I just wish more people were able to admit it.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On Brown, and I like Jerry, his ground is immediately shaky with the 4th finisher, the first to hit the wire with a prior start, pretty much duplicating his debut figure. But, he's a smart guy, so we can't just dismiss him out of hand.

Yeah - he certainly knows a ton. I just think he can be pretty excessive and over-do it a little too much with his constant variant splits and cutting races loose.

For instance - he had Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile no faster than his Champagne win - both got the same number because he believed the Juvenile came back to fast to believe. That basically means Mountain Town (beaten 4.75 lengths by Uncle Mo in the Champagne - but racing 2 or 3 paths wider - both carrying 122lbs) would have utterly drowned a lot of ok horses in the Juvenile with a repeat.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On the person you mentioned in this post.....has he admitted his foolishness or squirmed away like so many that say such idiocy?

What's funny is that Mig and I had that disagreement on the air after the Sam Davis, though without him being idioctically dismissive of figs, but after the Tampa Bay Derby he said on air that he was wrong. We're all wrong a lot of the time....I just wish more people were able to admit it.

To the best of my knowledge - no. And I kind of doubt he ever would.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

To the best of my knowledge - no. And I kind of doubt he ever would.

As somebody who likes to tell everybody how smart he is ( I guess this goes for both of us ) I think it's fair to say it helps one's credibility to occaisionally point out when we're wrong.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As somebody who likes to tell everybody how smart he is ( I guess this goes for both of us ) I think it's fair to say it helps one's credibility to occaisionally point out when we're wrong.

This post feels like a Trip or a Trap.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As somebody who likes to tell everybody how smart he is ( I guess this goes for both of us ) I think it's fair to say it helps one's credibility to occaisionally point out when we're wrong.

Andy,

The Dead played at the Uptown Theater in Chicago on back-to-back-to-back nights in January/February of 1978. For $10,000, name all three closing songs, in order.

[Thoroughbred Fan]

I think it was a really fast time by an obviously talented colt.

I also happen think it is crazy for Brown to try to make/defend/discredit a figure by comparing MM to Ghostzapper.

Ghostzapper did what he did in his career against accomplished horses and was a great, but brittle racehorse. However, comparing the two because you don't agree with a figure is lunacy. MM may not end up the reacehorse Ghostzapper was, but it doesn't mean he didn't run as high a figure in his debut.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by justindew

Andy,

The Dead played at the Uptown Theater in Chicago on back-to-back-to-back nights in January/February of 1978. For $10,000, name all three closing songs, in order.

Johnny B Goode, Good Lovin, Around and Around

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As somebody who likes to tell everybody how smart he is ( I guess this goes for both of us ) I think it's fair to say it helps one's credibility to occaisionally point out when we're wrong.

I could be wrong, but since I'm never wrong on the Internet, I must be right.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I could be wrong, but since I'm never wrong on the Internet, I must be right.

I don't remember, did Giacamo win the BCC?

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On Brown, and I like Jerry, his ground is immediately shaky with the 4th finisher, the first to hit the wire with a prior start, pretty much duplicating his debut figure. But, he's a smart guy, so we can't just dismiss him out of hand.

On the person you mentioned in this post.....has he admitted his foolishness or squirmed away like so many that say such idiocy?

What's funny is that Mig and I had that disagreement on the air after the Sam Davis, though without him being idioctically dismissive of figs, but after the Tampa Bay Derby he said on air that he was wrong. We're all wrong a lot of the time....I just wish more people were able to admit it.

sometimes its not "idiotically dismissive of figs"...its just i know who is going to be 6-5...more times then not its the chalk if the numbers look the highest. when the highest number gives me horses over 5-2....i'll love figs.......it works sometimes but c'mon. the faves still lose 2 out of 3 at most places.....with all the talk, you know this horse is going to be some ridiculously, stupid price next out...unless they really move him up...and even then it will probably be over bet. i'm just thinking anyone these days can do/get the number..trying to read the form is an art....you know that...but some of these others....i don't know about. i'm sure they are making bundles betting the "highest" number.....theres tons out there to be made on this horse.....lol

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

sometimes its not "idiotically dismissive of figs"...its just i know who is going to be 6-5...more times then not its the chalk if the numbers look the highest. when the highest number gives me horses over 5-2....i'll love figs.......it works sometimes but c'mon. the faves still lose 2 out of 3 at most places.....with all the talk, you know this horse is going to be some ridiculously, stupid price next out...unless they really move him up...and even then it will probably be over bet. i'm just thinking anyone these days can do/get the number..trying to read the form is an art....you know that...but some of these others....i don't know about. i'm sure they are making bundles betting the "highest" number.....theres tons out there to be made on this horse.....lol

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