Last 15 KY Derby winners at this point

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by OldDog

Forgive me if I'm stating the obvious, but it seems like in the Derby moreso than other races the winner is more likely the horse that gets the best trip than who is necessarily the best horse.

Obvious, yes, but not any the less true. Every time a columnist starts a lament about why we haven't had a Triple Crown in forever I always think "20 horses in the Kentucky Derby." I'm not saying that's the only reason, and if it were 14 horses we'd have had a bunch of TC winners (though I do think Afleet Alex would have won), but I think it makes luck an even bigger part of the equation.