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#1
03-11-2011, 07:34 PM
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If Borel had ridden either Afleet Alex or Belamy Road - they probably would have been five lengths behind Giacomo early on - and they would have come from 25 back to win by 10.
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#2
03-11-2011, 07:56 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#3
03-11-2011, 08:08 PM
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Doesnt look like he did
The 131st running of the Kentucky Derby Horse Jockey Wt. PP 1/4 1/2 3/4 1M Str. Fin. To $2 Giacomo Smith 126 10 18½ 18-2½ 18-1½ 11-hd 6-½ 1-½ 50.30 Closing Argument Velasquez 126 18 5-hd 6-½ 6-hd 4-hd 1-½ 2-½ 71.60 Afleet Alex Rose 126 12 11-hd 11-½ 9-½ 6-1½ 2-1 3-2½ 4.50 Don't Get Mad Baze 126 17 19-6 19-3½ 19-3½ 10-hd 7-½ 4-2¾ 29.20 Buzzards Bay Guidry 126 20 10-½ 10-hd 7-½ 5-½ 5-hd 5-½ 46.30 Wilko Nakatani 126 14 13-½ 14-hd 16-2½ 13-1½ 10-½ 6-no 21.70 Bellamy Road Castellano 126 16 3-½ 5-2 5-2 2-hd 3-hd 7-¾ 2.60 Andromeda's Hero Bejarano 126 2 16-hd 15-2 13-hd 16-2 14-1½ 8-no 57.30 Flower Alley Chavez 126 7 4-hd 3-hd 2-hd 7-1½ 8-1 9-hd 41.30 High Fly Bailey 126 11 6-1 4-1 3-hd 1-hd 4-1 10-nk 7.10 Greeley's Galaxy Desormeaux 126 9 17-1 16-½ 14-hd 8-hd 12-2½ 11-2¼ 21.00 Coin Silver Valenzuela 126 5 14-½ 12-hd 12-1½ 9-2 11-1 12-1¼ 38.60 Greater Good McKee 126 8 20 20 20 17-½ 15-½ 13-¾ 58.40 Noble Causeway Stevens 126 4 12-2 13-2½ 15-hd 12-hd 13-½ 14-2½ 12.30 Sun King Prado 126 3 9-½ 9-hd 8-hd 15-1½ 16-4 15-4 15.70 Spanish Chestnut Bravo 126 13 1-½ 1-1½ 1-1½ 3-hd 9-hd 16-7 71.00 Sort It Out Blanc 126 1 15-½ 17-hd 17-hd 18-4 17-2½ 17-3½ 61.90 Going Wild Valdivia 126 19 2-1 2-1 4-½ 14-hd 18-5½ 18-3½ 59.50 Bandini Velazquez 126 15 7-hd 8-2 11-1½ 20 19-3 19-12 6.80 High Limit Dominguez 126 6 8-2 7-hd 10-3½ 19-hd 20 20 22.50 Time: 22.280, 45.380, 1:09.590, 1:35.880, 2:02.750.
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#4
03-11-2011, 08:15 PM
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A few months ago, I posted that I was skeptical of Uncle Mo winning the Derby, citing his blow-out debut victory sprinting late last summer. My theory was that in general, 2-year olds who crush the field sprinting at Saratoga or Belmont don't develop into classic-distance horses. But to help Uncle Mo's cause, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Grindstone all won their debuts by open lengths in a sprint race.
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#5
03-11-2011, 09:39 PM
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Giacomo is the only real closer who never showed a lot of early speed at one-time. Real Quiet was a speed and fade going 5.5 furlongs early on. Charismatic blew several early leads - including some sprinting. Monarchos led after a half mile in a very sharp 7f MSW win Street Sense broke his maiden laying just a half length off of 21.60 and 44.20 fractions sprinting. Mine That Bird was a multiple stakes winner sprinting at age 2 - and blew a pair of leads at the 1/4 pole in his two preps at Sunland. Basically - if you haven't shown good early speed at one point ... you'll most likely plod home 3rd or 4th if all goes well. The horses who run 3rd or 4th are often among the last ones to press the reset button.
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#7
03-14-2011, 10:45 AM
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According to the recaps, it was a weird Derby- no pace and a lot of traffic trouble. Clearly a lot of people didn't feel Charismatic was the best horse even after the race- he wasn't the favorite in the Preakness, either.
__________________
Gentlemen! We're burning daylight! Riders up! -Bill Murray
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#8
03-14-2011, 11:16 AM
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Looking at Silver Charm's PP's is making me regret not throwing a few bucks The Factor's way at 37-1...
__________________
"I don't need nice horses at Philly, just ones with conditions."---Cannon Shell 
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#9
03-14-2011, 11:36 AM
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#10
03-14-2011, 03:04 PM
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I think it was just such a wide open race that Charismatic simply got lost in the shuffle, outside of winning the Lexington at 12-1 there wasn't much to go on.. Worldly Manner was coming in from Dubai, his Godolphin purchase price, awesome 2yr old form and Bailey riding gave him a lot of attention. Excellent Meeting/General Challenge entry was pretty imposing on paper.. Adonis has just won the Wood.. Three Ring was the filly coming in off a couple of big wins in Florida.. Stephen Got Even had won the Jim Beam.. Desert Hero had won the San Rafael and was 3rd in the SA Derby.. Answer Lively was the 2yr old champion.. Cat Thief was Lukas/Overbrook and had been just missing in all his preps. Prime Timber was another Baffert horse, he had won the San Felipe and been second in the SA Derby to General Challenge First American had just won the Flamingo impressively. Vicar had won the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby Menifee had won the Bluegrass Ecton Park, Lemon Drop Kid, Valhol, Kimberlite Pipe and K One King made up the rest of the field.. between them they had won quite a few stakes as well..
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#11
03-14-2011, 03:49 PM
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Interesting that only two horses on that list had a Grade I victory up to this point.
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#12
03-14-2011, 10:12 AM
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#13
03-14-2011, 10:44 AM
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Hybrid Mode
