Last 15 KY Derby winners at this point

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Kasept

25-1 in the Future Wager I think.

Yep. Giacomo was 25/1 in round 1 and 26/1 in round 2 ... both came after his Sham defeat.

The thing about that Santa Anita Derby that year is that no one passed anyone. It was a total merry-go-round race. Mike Smith looked like he was going to make this wide sweeping winning turn move with Giacomo and he was flat as a pancake in the stretch.

Brad Free - and a few other West coast writers basically wrote that Giacomo was obviously the horse you'd want out of that race ... but, if you can't pass a Roger Stein 75/1 shot ... how can you expect to pass them all in the stretch of the Derby?

Real Quiet also looked pretty damn tough to like off an 8th beaten 22 lengths non-effort - as an even money favorite at Golden Gate.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Brad Free - and a few other West coast writers basically wrote that Giacomo was obviously the horse you'd want out of that race ... but, if you can't pass a Roger Stein 75/1 shot ... how can you expect to pass them all in the stretch of the Derby?

http://www.derbytrail.com/wp/?p=52

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If Borel had ridden either Afleet Alex or Belamy Road - they probably would have been five lengths behind Giacomo early on - and they would have come from 25 back to win by 10.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If Borel had ridden either Afleet Alex or Belamy Road - they probably would have been five lengths behind Giacomo early on - and they would have come from 25 back to win by 10.

Did Borel have a mount that year?

[jenroypa]

Doesnt look like he did
The 131st running of the Kentucky Derby
Horse Jockey Wt. PP 1/4 1/2 3/4 1M Str. Fin. To $2
Giacomo Smith 126 10 18½ 18-2½ 18-1½ 11-hd 6-½ 1-½ 50.30
Closing Argument Velasquez 126 18 5-hd 6-½ 6-hd 4-hd 1-½ 2-½ 71.60
Afleet Alex Rose 126 12 11-hd 11-½ 9-½ 6-1½ 2-1 3-2½ 4.50
Don't Get Mad Baze 126 17 19-6 19-3½ 19-3½ 10-hd 7-½ 4-2¾ 29.20
Buzzards Bay Guidry 126 20 10-½ 10-hd 7-½ 5-½ 5-hd 5-½ 46.30
Wilko Nakatani 126 14 13-½ 14-hd 16-2½ 13-1½ 10-½ 6-no 21.70
Bellamy Road Castellano 126 16 3-½ 5-2 5-2 2-hd 3-hd 7-¾ 2.60
Andromeda's Hero Bejarano 126 2 16-hd 15-2 13-hd 16-2 14-1½ 8-no 57.30
Flower Alley Chavez 126 7 4-hd 3-hd 2-hd 7-1½ 8-1 9-hd 41.30
High Fly Bailey 126 11 6-1 4-1 3-hd 1-hd 4-1 10-nk 7.10
Greeley's Galaxy Desormeaux 126 9 17-1 16-½ 14-hd 8-hd 12-2½ 11-2¼ 21.00
Coin Silver Valenzuela 126 5 14-½ 12-hd 12-1½ 9-2 11-1 12-1¼ 38.60
Greater Good McKee 126 8 20 20 20 17-½ 15-½ 13-¾ 58.40
Noble Causeway Stevens 126 4 12-2 13-2½ 15-hd 12-hd 13-½ 14-2½ 12.30
Sun King Prado 126 3 9-½ 9-hd 8-hd 15-1½ 16-4 15-4 15.70
Spanish Chestnut Bravo 126 13 1-½ 1-1½ 1-1½ 3-hd 9-hd 16-7 71.00
Sort It Out Blanc 126 1 15-½ 17-hd 17-hd 18-4 17-2½ 17-3½ 61.90
Going Wild Valdivia 126 19 2-1 2-1 4-½ 14-hd 18-5½ 18-3½ 59.50
Bandini Velazquez 126 15 7-hd 8-2 11-1½ 20 19-3 19-12 6.80
High Limit Dominguez 126 6 8-2 7-hd 10-3½ 19-hd 20 20 22.50

Time: 22.280, 45.380, 1:09.590, 1:35.880, 2:02.750.

[lemoncrush]

A few months ago, I posted that I was skeptical of Uncle Mo winning the Derby, citing his blow-out debut victory sprinting late last summer. My theory was that in general, 2-year olds who crush the field sprinting at Saratoga or Belmont don't develop into classic-distance horses. But to help Uncle Mo's cause, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Grindstone all won their debuts by open lengths in a sprint race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

A few months ago, I posted that I was skeptical of Uncle Mo winning the Derby, citing his blow-out debut victory sprinting late last summer. My theory was that in general, 2-year olds who crush the field sprinting at Saratoga or Belmont don't develop into classic-distance horses. But to help Uncle Mo's cause, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and Grindstone all won their debuts by open lengths in a sprint race.

Silver Charm also won an extremely fast 2yo MSW race at Del Mar going just 5.5fs .. albeit that was his 2nd start.

Giacomo is the only real closer who never showed a lot of early speed at one-time.

Real Quiet was a speed and fade going 5.5 furlongs early on.

Charismatic blew several early leads - including some sprinting.

Monarchos led after a half mile in a very sharp 7f MSW win

Street Sense broke his maiden laying just a half length off of 21.60 and 44.20 fractions sprinting.

Mine That Bird was a multiple stakes winner sprinting at age 2 - and blew a pair of leads at the 1/4 pole in his two preps at Sunland.

Basically - if you haven't shown good early speed at one point ... you'll most likely plod home 3rd or 4th if all goes well. The horses who run 3rd or 4th are often among the last ones to press the reset button.

[OldDog]

Why did Charismatic go off at such high odds in the Kentucky Derby showing the improvements that he had made?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If Borel had ridden either Afleet Alex or Belamy Road - they probably would have been five lengths behind Giacomo early on - and they would have come from 25 back to win by 10.

I think Borel will continue to be successful in the Derby if he employs the tactics he used on Street Sense and Mine That Bird. With so many hopeless sprinters trying 10f's, any horse with stamina rallying from behind is guaranteed to pass a few.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think Borel will continue to be successful in the Derby if he employs the tactics he used on Street Sense and Mine That Bird. With so many hopeless sprinters trying 10f's, any horse with stamina rallying from behind is guaranteed to pass a few.

Which is what kept the very average looking Elite Alex at 30-1 in Future pool 2.