The Value of leading at the 1st call on dirt

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I'm sure you know the problem with this is that the ones the make the ROI so nice are the ones that are very hard to predict will make the lead.

For sure - but it's why I've always spent so much time studying pace - and more recently, seeing the light on pace figures.

There are a lot of situations where a horse should be loose on a lead - and because of extreme human error or a poor start - they aren't.

I also think the nature of the animal has a lot to do with why the ROI is so high. If they can't make the lead - they'll quit - and finish dismally. If they have to fight for it - they'll burn out and tire severly. This in turn leads the public to underrate the horses ability .. and when said horse finally gets that unpressured lead, it gets brave and runs to its true ability.

Most of the trailing horses also have to run while getting dirt kicked into their eyes and up their nose. They typcially have to race wider on the turns. They are more subject to traffic trouble and bumping etc. In a sport where 0.10 seconds can make all the difference - that's a setback.

Again, not that any of this is even slightly ground breaking.